According to our analysis EURUSD, USDJPY and US30 moved 15 pips and 37 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 13 October 2023.

USDJPY (7 pips)

EURUSD (8 pips)

US30 (37 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Summary of Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Results - October 2023

The preliminary results for October 2023's Consumer Sentiment Index and related economic indicators provide insights into consumer sentiment, economic conditions, and expectations. Here are the key highlights:

Consumer Sentiment Decline:

  • The Index of Consumer Sentiment experienced a notable 7.5% decline in October compared to September, marking a reversal from two months of relatively little change.

  • Assessments of personal finances decreased by about 15%, primarily due to growing concerns over inflation.

  • One-year expected business conditions plunged by approximately 19%.

Outlook on Long-Run Business Conditions:

  • While short-term expectations worsened, long-run expected business conditions remained relatively stable, suggesting that consumers believe the current economic challenges are temporary.

Demographic Impact:

  • Consumer sentiment setbacks were observed across nearly all demographic groups, reflecting the ongoing impact of rising prices and economic uncertainty.

Inflation Expectations:

  • Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.2% in the previous month to 3.8% in October, reaching the highest level since May 2023.

  • Long-run inflation expectations increased from 2.8% to 3.0% during the same period, remaining elevated compared to the pre-pandemic range.

These results highlight the ongoing influence of inflation and economic conditions on consumer sentiment. While short-term confidence has waned, the stability of long-run expectations suggests a belief among consumers that current economic challenges will not persist indefinitely.

The upcoming final data release in October will provide a more comprehensive view of consumer sentiment trends, offering valuable insights for policymakers and economists.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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