639 pips, US500 91 points and BTC 719 points potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 24 events in the second quarter of 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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639 pips, US500 91 points and BTC 719 points potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 24 events in the second quarter of 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 639 pips/ticks, US500 91 points and BTC 719 points profit out of the following 24 events in the second quarter of 2025 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.

Q2 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q2 2025 (only pips), please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 31 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

Market Movers: Key U.S. Economic Reports and Their Impact (April–June 2025)

From jobs data to energy inventories and agricultural outlooks, Q2 2025 saw a series of high-impact economic reports that rippled across global markets. Traders closely tracked these releases for their potential to move currencies, equities, commodities, and crypto. Here's a rundown of the most market-moving reports between April and June 2025.

April Highlights

  • JOLTS (April 1): The labor market began Q2 on solid footing, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey moving the USD by 21 pips—a notable reaction suggesting continued sensitivity to labor data.

  • Energy Inventories: The DOE Natural Gas Storage Reports on April 3, 17, and 24 moved 27, 24, and 28 ticks respectively. The Petroleum Status Reports on April 9 and 23 posted 29 and 19 ticks, showing volatility as supply levels fluctuated during seasonal demand shifts.

  • GDP Surprise (April 30): One of the month’s biggest events, the US GDP release, jolted the S&P 500 by 21 points and Bitcoin by a whopping 305 points, reflecting strong cross-asset sensitivity to macro growth data.

Early May Surge

  • Jobless Claims (May 1): Initial claims moved the USD by 29 pips and the S&P 500 by 7 points—a sign that labor market tightness was still front and center for traders.

  • Natural Gas (May 1): The same day, gas storage data shocked the market with a 55-tick move, marking the most volatile energy reaction in Q2.

  • Employment Report (May 2): The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release proved critical again: 19 pips on the USD, 19 S&P points, and 192 points on Bitcoin. Crypto remains highly reactive to macro labor indicators.

Mid-May Momentum

  • WASDE (May 12): Agricultural markets woke up as the USDA’s report drove 56 ticks, signaling shifting expectations in global grain supply and demand.

  • CPI & PPI (May 13, 15): CPI barely moved the needle at 3 pips but still nudged the S&P 500 by 14 points. The combo of PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed on May 15 moved the USD by 17 pips and the index by 10 points—a multifaceted data dump that markets clearly priced in.

  • Oil & Gas (May 15 & 21): Natural gas data dipped to 19 ticks, while oil inventories on May 21 jumped to 42 ticks, hinting at growing concerns over crude supply.

June Closes Q2 with a Bang

  • JOLTS (June 3): This report’s impact diminished to just 10 pips, perhaps signaling a market growing numb to repeated labor strength.

  • NFP (June 6): In contrast, the June NFP was a showstopper—37 pips on the dollar, 11 points on the S&P, and major reactions in correlated assets.

  • CPI (June 11): Again modest at 3 pips, but Bitcoin jumped 222 points, underscoring crypto's outsized sensitivity to inflation trends.

  • June 12 PPI & Jobless Claims: Together they created a 41-pip swing in the greenback—signaling that inflation is not yet off the radar.

  • GDP + Jobless + Durable Goods (June 26): A potent trifecta caused a 26-pip move, reinforcing how tightly markets are tethered to macro signals.

  • USDA Acreage/Grain Stocks (June 30): The most volatile ag report of the quarter delivered a hefty 64-tick reaction, capping off a high-stakes Q2 for commodity traders.

Takeaway for Traders

Q2 2025 reinforced a familiar theme: macro matters. While individual reports varied in market impact, clusters of data—especially when combining labor, inflation, or GDP figures—produced outsized reactions.

Crypto traders should continue watching NFP and CPI closely, while energy and ag market participants can't afford to ignore inventory and USDA reports. For equity and FX traders, jobless claims and broader economic indicators remain key swing factors.

Volatility isn't going away anytime soon—stay alert, stay nimble.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Switzerland Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials.

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61 pips potential profit in 26 seconds on 3 July 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (NFP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 61 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 3 July 2025.

USDJPY (40 pips)

EURUSD (21 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

July 2025 U.S. Jobs Report: Modest Gains Fuel Cautious Market Response

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its June 2025 Employment Situation Report on July 3, revealing moderate but steady growth in the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, aligning closely with the 12-month average gain of 146,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, showing little change from previous months and continuing the trend of a relatively tight labor market.

Key Highlights from the Report:

  • State Government and Health Care led job creation, adding 47,000 and 39,000 jobs respectively.

  • Federal Government employment declined by 7,000, bringing the total loss since January to 69,000.

  • Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% to $36.30, while wages for production and nonsupervisory workers climbed 0.3% to $31.24.

  • Long-term unemployment rose by 190,000 to 1.6 million, now accounting for 23.3% of the total unemployed.

  • The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.3%.

Market Reaction: USDJPY and EURUSD Move Modestly

Despite the data being mostly in line with expectations, forex markets saw mild volatility in response to the release:

  • USDJPY rose by 40 pips, signaling modest dollar strength likely tied to steady wage growth and job gains.

  • EURUSD slipped by 21 pips, a subdued reaction reflecting limited surprises in the report.

Overall, the total move across USDJPY and EURUSD was 61 pips, indicating a muted but focused market response, particularly ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend.

What It Means for Traders

The June report did little to shake market sentiment but reaffirmed the narrative of gradual economic cooling without triggering recession fears. Wage growth remains solid, and job creation—though slower than earlier in the recovery—is still healthy. With the Fed watching inflation and labor market metrics closely, this report may not alter near-term rate expectations significantly but reinforces a “wait-and-see” stance.

Looking ahead, the next Employment Situation Report is scheduled for Friday, August 1, 2025, which could play a more pivotal role in shaping monetary policy expectations as more data accumulate.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Start forex fx futures news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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214 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 222 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 7 events in June 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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214 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 222 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 7 events in June 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 214 pips, US500 17 points and BTC 222 points profit out of the following 7 events in June 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

June 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance June 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 10 minutes! (preparation time not included)

You can click on each release for detailed information.

June 2025: U.S. Economic Data Roundup and Market Impact – A Mixed but Actionable Picture for News Traders

As Q2 2025 came to a close, market participants experienced a flurry of high-impact U.S. economic data releases. From labor market indicators to inflation and agricultural reports, the data presented a mixed but actionable landscape for traders using machine-readable news feeds. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of key macroeconomic events in June 2025 and how they moved markets—particularly forex, index futures, and commodities.

June 3 – JOLTS Report (BLS)

Potential Market Movement: 10 pips in 12 seconds
Pairs: EURUSD, USDJPY
The U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a steady labor market in April with openings unchanged at 7.4 million. The market interpreted the release as neutral, resulting in modest but quick 10-pip moves across EURUSD and USDJPY.

Takeaway: A calm labor market doesn't mean a calm market. Low latency execution captured this brief spike.

June 5 – Initial Jobless Claims

Potential Market Movement: 33 pips + US500 6 points in 24 seconds
Pairs/Assets: USDJPY, EURUSD, US500
Claims ticked up to 247,000—the highest in months—causing swift market reactions. The US500 dropped while forex pairs spiked.

Takeaway: A slight rise in claims continues to signal softening in the labor market, a trend traders should watch.

June 6 – Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Potential Market Movement: 37 pips + US500 11 points + BTC 209 points in 18 seconds
Assets: USDJPY, EURUSD, US500, BTC
May added 139,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Markets interpreted this as mildly dovish, triggering movement across forex, equities, and even crypto.

Takeaway: Bitcoin is responding more frequently to macro data, not just tech headlines—machine-readable feeds matter here too.

June 11 – CPI Report

Potential Market Movement: 3 pips + BTC 222 points in 23 seconds
Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, BTC
May’s inflation came in cooler at +0.1% m/m. BTC surged 222 points, while forex markets remained largely subdued.

Takeaway: Low headline CPI can still cause big swings in alternative assets like crypto.

June 12 – Jobless Claims + PPI

Potential Market Movement: 41 pips in 26 seconds
Pairs: EURUSD, USDJPY
Continued claims hit the highest since Nov 2021. PPI rose just 0.1%. Traders responded swiftly to the twin signals of labor softness and sticky inflation.

Takeaway: A two-release combo amplifies potential—layered datasets demand machine-readable speed.

June 26 – Jobless Claims + GDP + Durable Goods

Potential Market Movement: 26 pips in 48 seconds
Pairs: USDJPY, EURUSD
Claims dropped, durable goods surged (+16.4%), but GDP was revised down to -0.5%. Mixed signals confused human traders—but algorithmic systems capitalized on the quick volatility.

Takeaway: Contradictory data is a recipe for whipsaws—ideal for fast-reacting, low-latency systems.

June 30 – USDA Acreage & Grain Stocks

Potential Market Movement: 64 ticks on Soybeans (ZS)
Asset: Soybeans Futures
Soybean acreage dropped 4%, but stocks rose 4%. The market popped 64 ticks on the data. Corn planting was notably up 5%, while wheat stockpiles surged 22%.

Takeaway: USDA data remains a high-value opportunity, especially for agricultural futures traders with millisecond access.

Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance Snapshot

Haawks Potential Trading Opportunity in 2025 So Far:
968 pips from U.S. macro releases (January–June 2025)
(2024 total: 4,305 pips)

Final Thoughts

June offered a complex but tradable market for those equipped with real-time machine-readable data. From labor metrics to inflation and agriculture, multiple assets responded within seconds. Haawks G4A continues to deliver sub-second latency performance, giving our clients the edge they need in modern macro-driven trading.

Ready to upgrade your news trading strategy?
Contact us at sales@haawks.com for timestamps, demo access, or a performance breakdown tailored to your trading style.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Chicago, New York and London. Free trials.

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64 ticks potential profit on 30 June 2025, analysis on trading soybeans futures on USDA Acreage and USDA Grain Stocks data

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64 ticks potential profit on 30 June 2025, analysis on trading soybeans futures on USDA Acreage and USDA Grain Stocks data

According to our analysis soybeans (ZS) futures prices moved around 64 ticks on USDA Acreage and USDA Grain Stocks data on 30 June 2025.

Soybeans (64 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

USDA Grain & Crop Report: June 2025 Shows Mixed Signals for U.S. Agriculture

Released on June 30, 2025, by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the latest report offers a comprehensive look at U.S. grain stocks and planted acreage as of June 1, 2025. The data presents a mixed bag of trends for farmers, traders, and ag stakeholders, reflecting shifts in both supply and demand across key commodities.

Corn Stocks Drop, But Plantings Surge

Corn stocks totaled 4.64 billion bushels, down 7% from a year ago. Notably, on-farm stocks fell 16%, while off-farm stocks actually rose by 6%. Despite lower current supplies, the March–May disappearance (a proxy for usage) increased to 3.50 billion bushels, up from 3.36 billion a year earlier.

But in a significant development, corn planted acreage for 2025 surged to 95.2 million acres—up 5% from last year—making it the third highest corn acreage since 1944. The increase is widespread, with 41 out of 48 reporting states showing higher or unchanged plantings.

Soybeans: Higher Stocks, Lower Acreage

Total soybean stocks are up 4%, reaching 1.01 billion bushels, even as on-farm stocks declined 12%. The off-farm surge of 18% helped lift overall supply. Disappearance during March–May stood at 903 million bushels, a 3% increase from the same time last year.

However, soybean acreage is moving in the opposite direction. Estimated at 83.4 million acres, 2025 plantings are down 4%, with reductions noted in the majority of reporting states.

Wheat Stocks Up Across the Board, But Acreage Slides

Wheat stocks have rebounded, with total stocks at 851 million bushels, up a notable 22% year-over-year. On-farm wheat storage saw a strong 32% increase, while off-farm stocks rose 20%. Yet, the disappearance (or usage) of 386 million bushels is down 2% compared to the previous year.

Despite the rebound in stock levels, total wheat acreage dipped by 1%, estimated at 45.5 million acres. Spring wheat took the biggest hit—down 5%, while Durum wheat saw a 2% increase in plantings.

Other Small Grains & Sorghum

  • Barley stocks dropped 11% to 69.5 million bushels, largely due to a 28% fall in on-farm holdings.

  • Oats stocks are down 17%, reflecting both lower on-farm and off-farm storage.

  • Grain sorghum is the standout: stocks more than doubled to 99.5 million bushels, driven by a 110% increase in off-farm stocks. However, usage is down 10%.

Pulse Crops See Strong Increases

Pulse crop inventories also surged:

  • Dry edible peas: up 28%

  • Lentils: up 90%

  • All chickpeas: up 36%

    • Large chickpeas: up 47%

    • Small chickpeas: up 16%

This points to continued momentum in pulse production and storage, possibly tied to growing interest in plant-based foods and export markets.

Cotton Takes a Hit

Cotton is the outlier in terms of planting trends. All cotton acreage for 2025 fell by 10%, estimated at just 10.1 million acres. Both Upland and American Pima varieties saw declines, reflecting market pressures and possibly unfavorable weather or economics.

Key Takeaways

  • Corn and sorghum show strong planting numbers and/or stock growth, signaling confidence and demand.

  • Soybeans and cotton may face tighter futures with acreage cuts despite decent stocks.

  • Wheat’s rebound in stocks is promising, but lower spring wheat acreage may impact future supply.

  • Pulse crops continue to gain ground, perhaps reflecting broader dietary shifts.

As harvest season approaches, market watchers will keep a close eye on weather conditions, global demand, and policy changes that could further sway the outlook for U.S. agriculture in 2025 and beyond.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/j098zb09z/4455bc157/6q184j42c/acrg0625.pdf, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/j098zb09z/4455bc157/6q184j42c/acrg0625.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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26 pips potential profit in 48 seconds on 26 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 26 pips on US Jobless Claims, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Durable Goods Orders data on 26 June 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (7 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

A Mixed Economic Picture: Weekly Jobless Claims Drop, Durable Goods Surge, but GDP Contracts

This week brought a flurry of economic data from key U.S. government agencies, painting a mixed picture of the American economy as it navigates a period of turbulence. From a surprise decline in jobless claims to a dramatic rebound in durable goods orders and a downward revision in GDP, here’s what you need to know.

Jobless Claims Dip Amid Growing Insured Unemployment

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 236,000 for the week ending June 21, a decrease of 10,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average also declined slightly to 245,000, reflecting modest labor market stability.

However, the story takes a turn when we look at continued claims, which reflect the number of people still receiving benefits. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment climbed to 1.974 million in the week ending June 14—the highest level since November 2021. The insured unemployment rate remains at 1.3%, unchanged but notably elevated.

Notably, unadjusted data showed insured unemployment rising by 58,030 to over 1.87 million, with states like California, Illinois, and Pennsylvania reporting the largest volumes of insured unemployed individuals. Meanwhile, layoffs in education, transportation, and hospitality sectors were major contributors to localized surges in initial claims, especially in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Oregon.

Durable Goods Orders Roar Back in May

The Census Bureau delivered a dose of optimism: new orders for manufactured durable goods surged by a staggering 16.4% in May, reaching $343.6 billion. This strong rebound follows a sharp 6.6% decline in April, suggesting a volatile but recovering manufacturing sector.

The increase was led almost entirely by transportation equipment, which jumped 48.3% to $145.4 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders still managed a respectable 0.5% gain, and excluding defense, orders rose 15.5%, underscoring broad-based demand in the private sector.

GDP Revised Down: Economic Contraction in Q1

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised first-quarter real GDP growth down to -0.5%, confirming that the U.S. economy contracted after a 2.4% increase in the previous quarter. This marks a notable deceleration, attributed primarily to:

  • Increased imports (which subtract from GDP),

  • Weaker government spending, and

  • Slower consumer spending, particularly in services like recreation and transportation.

Revised data showed that real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.9%, down from earlier estimates, signaling waning consumer demand. Corporate profits also fell by $90.6 billion, despite being revised upward by $27.5 billion from earlier estimates.

What It All Means

The juxtaposition of falling jobless claims and surging durable goods orders with a contracting GDP highlights the complex and uneven state of the U.S. economy:

  • The labor market remains resilient on the surface, but underlying weakness is showing up in rising continued claims.

  • Manufacturing appears to be regaining momentum, driven largely by transportation.

  • The overall economy contracted, signaling that business activity and consumer strength are faltering.

As the Federal Reserve weighs inflation data against slowing growth, policymakers and market participants alike will need to watch these signals closely in the weeks ahead.

Key Data at a Glance:

Indicator Latest Value Notes
Initial Jobless Claims 236,000 Down 10,000 from previous week
4-Week Avg. Jobless Claims 245,000 Down 750 from previous week
Insured Unemployment 1.974 million Highest since November 2021
Durable Goods Orders +16.4% $343.6 billion in May
Durable Goods (ex-transportation) +0.5% Broader indicator of core demand
Real GDP (Q1 2025) -0.5% Downward revision from -0.2%
Corporate Profits -$90.6 billion Revised up $27.5 billion
PCE Price Index +3.7% Inflation remains elevated
Real GDI +0.2% Revised up from -0.2%

Bottom Line: The economy is sending mixed signals. While manufacturing shows vigor and layoffs have slowed, continued joblessness is climbing and GDP is in the red. We may be in for a bumpy ride as the second half of 2025 unfolds.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html, https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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41 pips potential profit in 26 seconds on 12 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 41 pips on US Jobless Claims and US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 12 June 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

EURUSD (21 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Jobless Claims Steady, But Trends Show Rising Insured Unemployment. Producer Prices Edge Up: What It Means for the U.S. Economy

Published: June 12, 2025

The latest economic data paints a picture of a U.S. economy that’s holding steady—but showing some signs of strain beneath the surface. Two major releases today from the Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics provide insight into both the labor market and inflation trends.

Unemployment Claims Show Stability in New Layoffs, But Pressure is Mounting

Initial jobless claims remained flat at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, 2025 (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from the prior week's upwardly revised figure. However, the 4-week moving average rose to 240,250, the highest since August 2023—an early signal that labor market softening may be gaining momentum.

Key takeaways:

  • Continued claims (insured unemployment) climbed to 1.96 million, up by 54,000, the highest level since November 2021.

  • The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%, from 1.2% the previous week.

  • Unadjusted initial claims rose 17.1% to 244,752, reflecting real increases in layoffs.

Notable State-Level Trends:

  • Increases: Kentucky (+3,967, due to manufacturing layoffs), Minnesota (+2,364, education sector), and Tennessee (+1,764).

  • Decreases: Michigan (-3,783), Florida (-1,456), and Massachusetts (-1,585) saw fewer layoffs across multiple sectors.

These trends suggest that while broad-based layoffs remain limited, certain industries—particularly manufacturing and education—are facing headwinds.

Producer Prices Inch Up: Inflation Pressures Persist in Select Areas

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.1% in May, following declines in April (-0.2%) and March (-0.1%). Over the past 12 months, the index has increased 2.6%, signaling moderate but persistent inflationary pressure on wholesale goods and services.

Breakdown of May PPI Data:

  • Final Demand Goods: Rose 0.2%, driven by increases in tobacco products, processed poultry, and roasted coffee.

  • Final Demand Services: Up 0.1%, thanks to higher margins in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, though airline passenger services dropped 1.1%.

  • Core PPI (less food, energy, and trade services): Also increased 0.1%, with a 12-month increase of 2.7%.

Intermediate Demand Trends:

  • Processed goods for intermediate demand increased 0.1%, but unprocessed goods dropped 1.6%, driven by an 18.7% plunge in natural gas prices.

  • Prices for services for intermediate demand also rose slightly, lifted by increases in metals and minerals wholesaling and property management fees.

Economic Interpretation

Together, these two reports reflect a labor market with pockets of weakness and a producer-side inflation landscape that is not retreating quickly. While jobless claims aren’t yet surging, rising continued claims hint at a cooling labor market—potentially making it harder for displaced workers to quickly find new jobs.

At the same time, the small rise in producer prices—particularly in core goods and services—could keep inflation concerns alive at the Federal Reserve, which has paused rate hikes but continues to watch price dynamics closely.

What to Watch Going Forward

  • Will continued unemployment claims persist above 1.9 million?

  • How will consumer inflation respond to rising wholesale prices?

  • Will industries like manufacturing and education see further layoffs?

The June data provides a snapshot of an economy in delicate balance—neither overheating nor in clear decline. As the Federal Reserve weighs its next moves and policymakers monitor both job and price data, the coming months will be pivotal for understanding the full trajectory of the U.S. recovery.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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3 pips and BTC 222 points potential profit in 23 seconds on 11 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY and BTC on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 3 pips and BTC moved 222 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 June 2025.

USDJPY (1 pip)

EURUSD (2 pips)

BTC (222 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

May 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Holds Steady, Energy Prices Drag Down Headline Numbers

June 12, 2025

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May 2025, and the data shows a continued cooling in inflation, with a slight 0.1% increase in consumer prices on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks a slowdown from April’s 0.2% increase and offers further evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating—albeit unevenly across categories.

Headline Figures at a Glance

  • Monthly CPI (seasonally adjusted): +0.1% in May

  • 12-month CPI (unadjusted): +2.4%

  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.1% for the month; +2.8% year-over-year

  • Energy index: -1.0% for the month; -3.5% year-over-year

  • Food index: +0.3% for the month; +2.9% year-over-year

What’s Driving the Numbers?

Shelter Continues to Lead

Shelter prices rose 0.3% in May, maintaining a steady upward climb that has been a consistent inflation driver over the past year. Over the last 12 months, shelter prices are up 3.9%, making it the single largest contributor to the overall price increase.

Food Prices Edge Up

Food prices increased 0.3% in May, reversing April’s slight decline. The increase was spread across both food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%). Notably:

  • Cereals and bakery products rose 1.1%

  • Egg prices dropped 2.7%, though they’re still up 41.5% year-over-year

  • Fruits and vegetables nudged up 0.3%, but are down 0.5% over the year

Energy Prices Plunge

Energy was the biggest drag on the overall index. The energy index dropped 1.0%, led by a 2.6% decline in gasoline prices. Over the last 12 months:

  • Gasoline is down 12.0%

  • Fuel oil is down 8.6%

  • Electricity, however, is up 4.5%

  • Natural gas soared 15.3%

Core Services Show Mild Growth

Excluding food and energy, prices rose only 0.1% in May. Increases were noted in:

  • Medical care services (+0.2%)

  • Motor vehicle insurance (+0.7%)

  • Education (+0.3%)

At the same time, several consumer items saw declines, including:

  • Used cars and trucks (-0.5%)

  • New vehicles (-0.3%)

  • Apparel (-0.4%)

  • Airline fares (-2.7%)

What Does This Mean?

The May CPI report underscores a key theme: inflation is slowing but not uniformly. Core inflation remains sticky, especially in services like shelter and insurance, while energy and some goods prices continue to drop, giving the Federal Reserve more breathing room as it weighs future interest rate decisions.

A 2.4% annual inflation rate is close to the Fed’s 2% target, but the 2.8% core inflation figure suggests more progress is needed before declaring full victory over inflation.

What to Watch Next

Looking ahead, two major changes are coming:

  • Rebasing of CPI series starting in July 2025 will align selected indexes to a new reference base of December 2024 = 100.

  • Changes to wireless services CPI methodology beginning with July data will use alternative data sources and methods to reflect real-time pricing trends more accurately.

The June CPI report is scheduled for release on July 15, 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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37 pips, US500 11 points and BTC 209 points potential profit in 18 seconds on 6 June 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, EURUSD, US500 and BTC on US Employment Situation (NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 37 pips, US500 moved 11 points and BTC moved 209 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 6 June 2025.

USDJPY (24 pips)

EURUSD (13 pips)

US500 (11 points)

BTC (209 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Job Market Update: May 2025 Shows Steady Growth but Signs of Cooling

The U.S. labor market maintained moderate momentum in May 2025, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), with total nonfarm payroll employment rising by 139,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, continuing a 12-month trend of hovering between 4.0% and 4.2%.

Key Highlights

  • Job Growth by Sector:

    • Health Care led the way with +62,000 jobs, particularly in hospitals and ambulatory services.

    • Leisure and Hospitality added +48,000 jobs, mostly in food services and bars.

    • Social Assistance grew by +16,000 jobs, continuing its steady upward trend.

    • Federal Government employment continued to decline, down 22,000 jobs in May and 59,000 since January.

  • Wages and Hours:

    • Average hourly earnings rose by $0.15 to $36.24, a 0.4% monthly increase, and 3.9% over the past year.

    • The average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours.

  • Labor Force Metrics:

    • The employment-population ratio slipped to 59.7%, and labor force participation decreased to 62.4%.

    • Long-term unemployment dropped by 218,000 to 1.5 million, making up 20.4% of total unemployment.

    • Those jobless for less than 5 weeks rose by 264,000 to 2.5 million.

Revisions & Notes

  • March and April job gains were revised downward by a combined 95,000 jobs, suggesting the labor market may be slightly weaker than previously believed.

  • A minor correction was made to April’s household survey data due to the rollout of a redesigned sample.

  • A shift in classification of certain New York state workers impacted industry employment counts, transferring jobs from health care to social assistance.

Takeaway

The May report signals a job market that remains resilient but cautious. While job growth continues, it’s slower than the pace seen earlier in the recovery. Wage growth is steady, but softening participation and revisions to previous months hint at underlying labor market fragility. All eyes will be on the June report, due July 3, for confirmation of any emerging trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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33 pips and US500 6 points potential profit in 24 seconds on 5 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US500 on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 33 pips and US500 moved 6 points on US Jobless Claims data on 5 June 2025.

USDJPY (24 pips)

EURUSD (9 points)

US500 (6 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Unemployment Claims Edge Up in Late May, 2025: Signs of a Softening Labor Market?

Published: June 5, 2025

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows a modest increase in new unemployment claims, potentially signaling slight softening in the labor market as we head into summer.

Key Highlights from the Week Ending May 31, 2025:

  • Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted):
    New filings for unemployment benefits rose to 247,000, up 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 239,000.
    This is the highest weekly figure in recent months and above the 4-week average of 235,000, which itself ticked up by 4,500.

  • 4-Week Moving Average Trend:
    Continues to climb, now at its highest since late 2021, suggesting a potential shift in labor market conditions.

  • Insured Unemployment:
    The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell slightly to 1.9 million, a drop of 3,000 from the prior week.
    However, the 4-week moving average rose to 1,895,250 — its highest since November 2021.

  • Insured Unemployment Rate:
    Decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%, both on a seasonally and unadjusted basis.

Unadjusted Insights: May 31 Snapshot

  • Initial Claims (Unadjusted):
    Dropped to 208,642, down 3,128 from the previous week.
    However, this was a smaller decline than expected, and still higher than the 196,177 claims filed during the same week last year.

  • Insured Unemployment (Unadjusted):
    Decreased by 18,524 to 1,757,031 — although this figure is still nearly 87,000 higher than the same week in 2024.

Notable State Activity

Some states saw significant week-over-week shifts in initial claims:

Increases:

  • Michigan: +3,259 (due to manufacturing layoffs)

  • Nebraska: +1,328 (also driven by manufacturing job losses)

  • California: +1,041 (no specific reason provided)

Decreases:

  • No states reported weekly declines of more than 1,000.

Among states with the highest insured unemployment rates:

  • New Jersey leads at 2.2%, followed by California and Washington at 2.1%.

Federal Program Claims

  • Federal Civilian Employees:
    538 initial claims (down 72); 6,719 continued weeks claimed (up 341)

  • Newly Discharged Veterans:
    295 initial claims (down 79); 4,486 continued weeks claimed (down 83)

Big Picture Takeaway

While these fluctuations are not dramatic, the steady rise in the 4-week moving averages for both initial and continued claims may be an early signal of a cooling labor market. In particular, manufacturing layoffs in several key states are contributing to localized increases in claims.

That said, the insured unemployment rate remains relatively low at 1.2%, suggesting overall employment levels are still strong by historical standards.

Keep an Eye On...

  • Future reports to see whether this increase is temporary or becomes a trend

  • Sector-specific layoff patterns — particularly in manufacturing

  • State-level policy shifts or economic factors driving regional changes in claims

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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10 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 3 June 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 10 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data on 3 June 2025.

USDJPY (6 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Job Market Holds Steady in April 2025, Says BLS Report

The U.S. job market showed little movement in April 2025, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Job openings remained steady at 7.4 million, while hires and separations also showed minimal changes, suggesting a stable yet cautiously progressing labor environment.

Key Highlights from the April 2025 JOLTS Report:

  • Job Openings:
    The number of job openings stood at 7.4 million, with an unchanged rate of 4.4%. Notable industry shifts included:

    • Decrease in Accommodation and Food Services (–135,000)

    • Decrease in State and Local Government, Education (–51,000)

    • Increase in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (+43,000)

    • Slight uptick in Mining and Logging (+10,000)

  • Hires:
    Total hires remained relatively flat at 5.6 million, with a 3.5% hire rate. No significant changes were recorded across major industries.

  • Separations:
    Overall separations totaled 5.3 million with a rate of 3.3%, showing no major month-over-month movement. Breakdown includes:

    • Quits: Held steady at 3.2 million (2.0% rate), though down 220,000 year-over-year.

    • Layoffs and Discharges: Steady at 1.8 million (1.1% rate). Notable changes:

      • Increase in Health Care and Social Assistance (+52,000)

      • Decrease in State and Local Government (excl. education) (–14,000)

      • Decrease in Federal Government (–4,000)

    • Other Separations: Flat at 308,000

By Establishment Size:

Both very small (1–9 employees) and very large (5,000+ employees) establishments reported little or no change across all labor movement categories.

Revisions for March 2025:

  • Job openings were revised up by 8,000 to 7.2 million

  • Hires were revised down by 7,000 to 5.4 million

  • Total separations were revised up by 46,000 to 5.2 million

    • Quits revised up by 12,000

    • Layoffs and Discharges revised up by 32,000

What This Means:

The April 2025 data suggests a labor market that’s holding steady but not showing strong momentum in either direction. Employers appear cautious, with few significant increases in hiring or layoffs, while worker confidence—measured by the quits rate—remains solid but slightly lower compared to last year.

As we look ahead to the next JOLTS update, scheduled for July 1, 2025, employers, job seekers, and policymakers alike will continue watching for signals of acceleration or slowdown in the broader U.S. economy.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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