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36 pips potential profit in 144 seconds on 18 December 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 36 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 18 December 2024.

USDJPY (13 pips)

EURUSD (23 pips)

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Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates and Releases Updated Economic Projections for 2024-2027

Date: December 18, 2024

The Federal Reserve has made headlines today by not only cutting the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% but also releasing its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). These projections outline the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) expectations for key economic indicators, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation, through 2027.

Key Economic Projections for 2024-2027

The SEP provides a detailed look at the anticipated trajectory of the U.S. economy, offering insight into where the Fed believes things are headed under current policy assumptions. Here’s a breakdown of the highlights:

1. Real GDP Growth

  • 2024: Projected to grow by 2.5% (up from 2.0% in the September projection).

  • 2025: Growth slows slightly to 2.1%.

  • 2026: Expected at 2.0%.

  • 2027: Further tapering to 1.9%.

  • Longer Run: A sustainable growth rate of 1.8%.

Context: The upward revision in 2024’s GDP projection reflects confidence in the economy’s resilience, despite higher interest rates throughout the year. Growth is anticipated to gradually moderate over the longer term.

2. Unemployment Rate

  • 2024: Median projection of 4.2%.

  • 2025-2027: Steady at 4.3%.

  • Longer Run: Expected to stabilize at 4.2%.

Context: While the labor market is expected to ease slightly, unemployment projections remain historically low, indicating a relatively healthy job market.

3. PCE Inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

  • 2024: Projected at 2.4%.

  • 2025: Slight increase to 2.5%.

  • 2026: Moderates to 2.1%.

  • 2027: Aligns with the Fed’s target at 2.0%.

  • Longer Run: Stable at 2.0%.

Context: Inflation remains a key concern, but projections suggest the Fed expects to achieve its 2% goal by 2027.

4. Core PCE Inflation (Excluding Food and Energy)

  • 2024: 2.8%.

  • 2025: Drops to 2.5%.

  • 2026: Further down to 2.2%.

  • 2027: Aligns with the target at 2.0%.

Context: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to remain slightly elevated in the near term before converging with the overall inflation target.

5. Federal Funds Rate

  • 2024: Projected to end at 4.4%.

  • 2025: Declines to 3.9%.

  • 2026: Further reduces to 3.4%.

  • 2027: Expected to stabilize at 3.1%.

  • Longer Run: Settles at 3.0%.

Context: The Fed’s policy path suggests a gradual easing of interest rates over the next few years, reflecting confidence that inflation will continue to cool while supporting economic growth.

What Does This Mean for the Economy?

1. Growth with Stability

The upward revision of 2024 GDP growth indicates the economy is performing better than previously expected. While growth is expected to moderate, it’s not anticipated to stall, suggesting a soft landing rather than a recession.

2. Labor Market Resilience

The projected unemployment rate remains low, indicating that even as the economy adjusts to higher interest rates, the job market is expected to remain resilient. This provides reassurance for workers and consumers.

3. Inflation Under Control

The Fed’s inflation projections suggest confidence that price pressures will continue to ease. Achieving the 2% inflation target by 2027 will be a key milestone for restoring economic stability.

4. Gradual Rate Cuts

With the federal funds rate projected to decline gradually over the next few years, borrowing costs for consumers and businesses are likely to decrease. This could support investments in housing, business expansion, and consumer spending.

Market Reactions and Future Policy

Despite the Fed’s rate cut and optimistic projections, the stock market declined following the announcement. Investors appear to remain wary of lingering uncertainties surrounding the economy, inflation, and future policy adjustments. The market’s reaction underscores concerns about potential risks to growth and the Fed’s ability to navigate these challenges effectively.

Conclusion: A Measured Approach to Monetary Policy

The Fed’s decision to cut rates and its detailed economic projections signal a measured approach to navigating economic uncertainty. The central bank remains committed to fostering maximum employment and price stability while adapting to changing conditions.

As we move into 2025, all eyes will be on inflation trends, labor market conditions, and the Fed’s ongoing policy decisions. For now, today’s actions provide cautious optimism that the U.S. economy can continue to grow while keeping inflation under control, though market sentiment remains cautious.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241218a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20241218.htm

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35 ticks potential profit in 16 seconds on 12 December 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 35 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 12 December 2024.

Natural gas (35 ticks)

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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Analysis for December 6, 2024

Released: December 12, 2024
Next Release: December 19, 2024

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending December 6, 2024. This report provides valuable insights into natural gas inventories across the United States, helping analysts, traders, and policymakers understand supply and demand dynamics during the winter season.

Key Highlights

  • Total Working Gas in Storage: 3,747 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

  • Net Decrease: 190 Bcf from the previous week’s total of 3,937 Bcf

  • Year-Over-Year Comparison: 67 Bcf higher than the same period last year

  • Five-Year Average Comparison: 165 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,582 Bcf

At 3,747 Bcf, the current storage levels remain within the five-year historical range, indicating a relatively balanced inventory despite a notable weekly draw.

Summary of Regional Trends

  • East Region: The East saw a significant withdrawal of 58 Bcf, bringing current stocks to 856 Bcf. Compared to last year and the five-year average, this is a modest decrease of 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively.

  • Midwest Region: The Midwest experienced a 60 Bcf drawdown, reducing storage to 1,055 Bcf. Inventories are 0.8% lower than last year but still 1.9% above the five-year average.

  • Mountain Region: Despite a relatively small withdrawal of 7 Bcf, the Mountain region’s storage levels remain robust at 282 Bcf. This represents a 15.6% increase over last year and a 33% increase over the five-year average.

  • Pacific Region: The Pacific region saw an 8 Bcf draw, ending the week at 302 Bcf. Stocks are 4.5% higher than a year ago and 11.9% above the five-year average.

  • South Central Region: This region had the largest total withdrawal of 59 Bcf, bringing the total to 1,251 Bcf. Salt facilities contributed a 22 Bcf decline, while nonsalt facilities saw a 37 Bcf reduction. Despite the draw, stocks remain 2.4% higher than last year and 3.6% above the five-year average.

Key Insights and Market Implications

  1. Seasonal Draws Begin to Ramp Up: With winter demand in full swing, withdrawals are accelerating. The total net decrease of 190 Bcf underscores the increased consumption driven by colder weather.

  2. Healthy Inventories: Despite significant weekly draws, storage levels are still above both last year’s figures and the five-year average. This suggests a cushion against potential supply disruptions during peak winter demand.

  3. Regional Variations: The Mountain and Pacific regions continue to show robust storage levels compared to historical averages, while the East and Midwest are experiencing tighter supplies.

  4. Potential Market Impact: These storage dynamics can influence natural gas prices. Continued draws at this pace may push prices higher, particularly if cold weather persists.

Looking Ahead

The next report, scheduled for December 19, 2024, will provide further insights into how winter demand is impacting natural gas inventories. As we move deeper into the season, monitoring these weekly changes will be critical for assessing market stability and price trends.

Stay tuned for more updates and analysis!

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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37 pips potential profit in 8 seconds on 6 December 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 37 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 6 December 2024.

USDJPY (28 pips)

EURUSD (9 pips)

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November 2024 U.S. Employment Report: Key Takeaways and Insights

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its November 2024 Employment Situation Report, highlighting continued growth in the labor market with some mixed signals. Here’s what you need to know:

Job Growth Surges, Led by Health Care and Leisure Industries

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in November, marking a strong rebound from the previous month's modest gain of 36,000. This growth surpasses the 12-month average increase of 186,000, signaling resilience despite broader economic uncertainties. Key contributors included:

  • Health Care (+54,000): Growth was driven by ambulatory health care services (+22,000), home health care (+16,000), hospitals (+19,000), and nursing care facilities (+12,000).

  • Leisure and Hospitality (+53,000): Food services and drinking places added the bulk of these jobs (+29,000), reflecting ongoing recovery in service-related industries.

  • Government (+33,000): Gains were concentrated in state government employment (+20,000).

  • Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (+32,000): The return of workers following strike actions fueled this sector’s rebound.

Unemployment Rate Holds Steady, but Challenges Persist

The unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.2%, up from 3.7% a year earlier. There are now 7.1 million unemployed Americans, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market recovery. Notable trends include:

  • Long-term Unemployment: This group, defined as those jobless for 27 weeks or more, remains elevated at 1.7 million, making up 23.2% of total unemployed.

  • Demographic Insights: Unemployment edged up for Black workers to 6.4%, while other major groups, including Whites (3.8%), Asians (3.8%), and Hispanics (5.3%), showed little change.

Labor Force and Participation Trends

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining a narrow range since late 2023. However, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.6 percentage points over the past year, landing at 59.8%. These metrics suggest some stagnation in workforce engagement.

Retail Trade Slumps as Seasonal Hiring Falters

Retail trade lost 28,000 jobs in November, marking a significant divergence from other industries. Losses were particularly sharp in general merchandise retailers (-15,000), though electronics and appliance retailers posted modest gains (+4,000). This decline could reflect shifting consumer patterns and cautious hiring ahead of the holiday season.

Earnings and Work Hours Tick Up

Wage growth continued at a steady pace, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% to $35.61. Over the past year, wages have risen by 4.0%, providing some relief against inflationary pressures. The average workweek for private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, a positive indicator of labor demand.

Upward Revisions Reflect Stronger Momentum

Revised data for September and October show that employment gains were 56,000 higher than previously reported. September’s total was adjusted up to 255,000, and October’s figure increased to 36,000.

What It All Means

November’s employment report paints a picture of a labor market balancing growth with persistent challenges:

  • Encouraging Sectors: Health care, leisure, and government sectors are driving job creation, reflecting the continued demand for essential services.

  • Emerging Concerns: Retail trade losses and elevated long-term unemployment suggest pockets of weakness that merit attention.

  • Stable Wages: The steady rise in wages is a positive for workers, though it remains to be seen if this can keep pace with inflation and higher living costs.

As we close out 2024, the labor market appears robust but not without its vulnerabilities. Policymakers, businesses, and job seekers will be closely watching December’s report, due on January 10, 2025, to gauge the economy’s trajectory into the new year.

Stay tuned for more updates on labor market trends and insights!

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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18 pips potential profit in 3 seconds on 3 December 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 18 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 3 December 2024.

USDJPY (15 pips)

EURUSD (3 pips)

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October 2024 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report: What You Need to Know

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for October 2024, and the data highlights some key trends in the U.S. labor market. While overall movement was subdued, there were notable shifts in specific sectors and categories. Here's a breakdown of what the numbers tell us about the current state of employment.

1. Job Openings Hold Steady but Show Yearly Decline

On the last business day of October 2024, there were 7.7 million job openings, a figure relatively unchanged from the previous month. However, compared to the same time last year, job openings have declined by 941,000, reflecting a possible cooling in labor demand.

Key changes by sector:

  • Increases:

    • Professional and business services: +209,000

    • Accommodation and food services: +162,000

    • Information: +87,000

  • Decrease:

    • Federal government: -26,000

The job openings rate remained steady at 4.6%, a potential sign that employers are cautious about expanding their workforce.

2. Hiring Trends: Slight Decline Over the Year

The number of hires remained unchanged at 5.3 million in October but has dropped by 501,000 over the past year. This marks a continued trend of slower hiring. The hires rate also stayed steady at 3.3%, reflecting limited changes in the pace of workforce growth.

Noteworthy sectoral shifts:

  • Decline in private educational services: -24,000

3. Separations and Quits: Workers Regaining Confidence?

Total separations, which include quits, layoffs, and other reasons, were little changed at 5.3 million but were down 369,000 compared to last year. The total separations rate has held firm at 3.3% for three consecutive months.

A closer look:

  • Quits: Increased to 3.3 million (+228,000 over the month), raising the quits rate to 2.1%. This could indicate growing confidence among workers to leave their jobs for better opportunities.

    • Biggest rise in quits: Accommodation and food services (+90,000)

  • Layoffs and Discharges: Stable at 1.6 million (1.0% rate), though retail trade saw an increase (+60,000), while durable goods manufacturing (-37,000) and private educational services (-14,000) declined.

4. Establishment Size Matters

When breaking down the data by establishment size:

  • Small businesses (1–9 employees): Saw a decrease in the hires rate.

  • Large organizations (5,000+ employees): Little to no change across job openings, hires, quits, and separations, reflecting more stability.

5. September Revisions: Adjustments Reflect New Data

As is common, revisions were made to the September 2024 figures:

  • Job openings were revised down by 71,000 to 7.4 million.

  • Hires were revised up by 24,000 to 5.6 million.

  • Separations remained unchanged at 5.2 million.

    • Notably, quits were revised upward by 27,000, while layoffs and discharges saw a downward revision of 31,000.

What This Means for Employers and Workers

For employers:

  • The relatively stable job openings and hiring rates suggest caution in expanding payrolls, despite sectoral variations.

  • Industries like accommodation and food services are seeing a surge in quits, potentially signaling challenges in retaining workers.

For workers:

  • The uptick in quits indicates a possible increase in confidence, as employees feel more comfortable exploring new opportunities.

  • Stable layoffs and discharges suggest a degree of security for most employed individuals.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS release, covering November 2024, is scheduled for January 7, 2025. As we head into the new year, it will be important to watch whether these trends hold steady or shift in response to broader economic developments.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the labor market continues to evolve.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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31 pips potential profit in 43 seconds on 14 November 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 31 pips on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 14 November 2024.

USDJPY (20 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

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October 2024 Producer Price Index Report: Key Takeaways and Insights

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Producer Price Index (PPI) report for October 2024, highlighting an incremental rise in wholesale prices across several categories. The report provides a valuable gauge of inflation trends within the economy as it captures the price changes from producers' perspectives. Let’s dive into the major insights and explore what they mean for businesses, policymakers, and consumers.

Overview of the October PPI Data

The PPI for final demand rose by 0.2% in October, following a modest increase of 0.1% in September. Over the past 12 months, the final demand index rose by 2.4%, signaling steady, though contained, inflationary pressures on the production side. Excluding the more volatile food, energy, and trade services, the index increased by 0.3% in October and 3.5% year-over-year, indicating some underlying inflation in core producer prices.

Final Demand Services: Primary Driver of October's Price Increase

A significant portion of the October PPI increase stemmed from final demand services, which advanced by 0.3%. This rise marks a steady increase from previous months and reflects broad-based price gains within service sectors:

  • Services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing showed a 0.3% increase, leading the rise in service prices.

  • Transportation and warehousing services experienced a 0.5% price hike, indicating higher operating costs within logistics networks.

  • Portfolio management services saw a notable 3.6% price increase, contributing significantly to the overall rise in service prices.

This uptick in service-related costs can affect businesses reliant on professional services, financial services, and logistics, potentially impacting prices downstream.

Final Demand Goods: A Modest Rise in Prices

The index for final demand goods increased slightly by 0.1% in October after consecutive declines. Notably:

  • Goods excluding food and energy climbed by 0.3%, suggesting steady demand for manufactured goods.

  • Energy prices fell by 0.3%, while food prices saw a modest decrease of 0.2%.

The standout here was the 8.4% jump in the price of carbon steel scrap, reflecting price fluctuations in raw materials that could affect various industries, including construction and manufacturing.

Intermediate Demand Insights: Processed and Unprocessed Goods Climb Higher

Intermediate demand, representing the cost of goods and services in the production process, displayed varied trends:

  • Processed goods for intermediate demand rose by 0.5% after two months of declines, largely due to higher prices for processed materials excluding food and energy. Year-over-year, however, processed goods have declined by 1.2%.

  • Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand saw a more significant jump of 4.1%, the largest since August 2022. A 9.9% increase in energy materials, particularly crude petroleum, drove this rise.

These price increases at the intermediate stage may signal cost pressures on manufacturers and suppliers, likely influencing prices for consumers and businesses in the near future.

Stages of Production Analysis

Examining the PPI by production stages provides additional insight into where price changes are occurring in the supply chain:

  • Stage 4 intermediate demand (goods closest to final production) rose 0.2%, with notable increases in diesel fuel and rents for office and retail properties.

  • Stage 3 intermediate demand climbed by 0.5%, driven by goods inputs like diesel fuel and slaughter poultry.

  • Stage 2 intermediate demand increased by 1.5%, with goods inputs up by 3.8% due to jumps in crude petroleum and carbon steel scrap.

  • Stage 1 intermediate demand showed a 0.3% rise, propelled by higher prices for airline passenger services and carbon steel scrap.

What These Trends Mean for the Economy

The steady increases in October’s PPI, particularly within services and intermediate goods, suggest that inflationary pressures are present but not severe. Here’s what this could mean for different stakeholders:

  1. For businesses: Rising input costs, especially in services and core goods, may lead to increased expenses for production and logistics. Businesses may need to consider cost-management strategies or price adjustments to maintain margins.

  2. For policymakers: The continued rise in core PPI components could influence monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve may view these trends as an indication of persistent inflation within the supply chain, potentially affecting interest rate policies.

  3. For consumers: While direct consumer prices aren’t covered in the PPI, higher production costs can often translate into retail price increases. Consumers may notice price adjustments in areas affected by rising wholesale service costs, including travel, healthcare, and retail products.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch for in November

The next PPI release, scheduled for December 12, 2024, will reveal if these inflationary pressures persist into the year’s final quarter. Key areas to monitor include:

  • Service sector trends: As services remain a major factor in the overall PPI, any shifts here could influence broader price stability.

  • Intermediate demand for goods: Further rises in intermediate demand could signal ongoing supply chain pressures, especially if energy costs remain volatile.

In sum, October’s PPI report underscores that while inflationary pressures are present, they remain relatively contained and sector-specific. By keeping an eye on these trends, businesses and consumers can better anticipate potential price changes as the economy progresses into 2024.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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54 pips potential profit in 11 seconds on 13 November 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 November 2024.

USDJPY (32 pips)

EURUSD (22 pips)

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October 2024 CPI Report: Key Highlights and Insights

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals modest inflationary trends in October, showing a steady pace in prices with an overall increase of 0.2% for the month, consistent with the previous three months. This brings the year-over-year increase for all items to 2.6%, marking a slight acceleration from the 2.4% reported for September. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind October’s CPI numbers and what it could mean for consumers and the economy.

Shelter Costs Remain a Key Driver of Inflation

Shelter costs, a substantial portion of the CPI, rose 0.4% in October. This increase accounted for more than half of the overall rise in the CPI for the month. Over the past 12 months, shelter costs have climbed by 4.9%, contributing significantly to the core inflation measure (all items less food and energy), which rose 3.3% year-over-year. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent both increased by 0.4% in October, reflecting the persistent upward pressure in housing costs.

Food Prices Continue to Climb, but at a Slower Pace

The food index increased by 0.2% in October, a slight slowdown from September’s 0.4% rise. Prices for food at home edged up 0.1%, with notable increases in cereals and bakery products (+1.0%) and dairy (+1.0%), as well as fruits and vegetables (+0.4%). However, the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index fell 1.2%, driven by a sharp 6.4% decrease in egg prices. For food away from home, including restaurant meals, prices rose 0.2%. Over the past year, food prices have risen by 2.1%.

Energy Index Stays Flat After Recent Declines

Following a 1.9% decline in September, the energy index remained unchanged in October, bringing some stability after several months of fluctuation. Gasoline prices continued their decline with a 0.9% drop, contributing to the 12.2% decrease over the past year. Fuel oil also saw a notable reduction, with prices down by 20.8% over the last 12 months. However, the cost of electricity increased 1.2% for the month and has risen by 4.5% over the year, while natural gas increased by 0.3% in October, up 2.0% year-over-year.

Core CPI Sees Steady Growth, Driven by Services and Transportation

The core CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, rose by 0.3% in October. Services excluding energy increased 0.3% as well, with significant contributions from shelter and medical care. Used cars and trucks experienced a surprising uptick of 2.7% for the month, after several months of declines. Airline fares also jumped by 3.2%, and medical care services increased by 0.4%.

Apparel, Communication, and Household Furnishings Decline

While the prices of many items rose, some categories saw decreases. Apparel fell by 1.5% in October, following an increase in September, while communication and household furnishings indexes also experienced declines. These decreases helped to offset some of the monthly CPI gains, indicating some price variability across goods and services.

Annual Inflation and Outlook

The CPI report shows a steady 2.6% increase over the past 12 months, reflecting a measured but persistent inflationary environment. The energy index, which has been a source of relief with a 4.9% decrease over the year, helped balance the rise in shelter and other core costs. However, the uptick in core inflation, particularly from services and shelter, suggests ongoing challenges in keeping inflation within target levels.

Looking forward, the November CPI report, scheduled for December 11, will offer further insights into these trends. Key areas to watch will include the energy index, as seasonal adjustments for heating costs take effect, and shelter, which remains a major factor in inflation. The CPI data continues to be an essential gauge for understanding the economic pressures on consumers and will likely influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in the coming months.

In Summary

October’s CPI data suggests a stable but gradually rising inflation environment, with shelter costs as the dominant force. Food prices continue to rise moderately, while energy costs remain volatile but stable for now. As inflation remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target, policymakers and consumers alike will be keeping a close eye on these trends heading into the winter months.

Stay tuned for our next update following the release of November’s CPI data, as we continue to track the evolving inflation landscape and its implications for everyday life and economic policy.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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16 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 30 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 30 October 2024.

USDJPY (12 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

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Understanding the U.S. Economy: A Look at Q3 2024's GDP Performance

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has just released its “advance” estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2024, and there’s plenty to unpack. This preliminary figure provides valuable insight into the economic health of the country, although it’s essential to note that these numbers can be revised as more complete data becomes available.

Key Takeaways from Q3 2024 GDP Data

Real GDP in the U.S. grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. While this reflects steady growth, it’s a slight deceleration from the 3.0% increase seen in the second quarter. This slowing momentum was primarily attributed to a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. However, bright spots included boosts in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending.

Breaking Down the Numbers

  1. Consumer Spending: This remained a significant driver of GDP growth, with contributions from both goods and services. Within the goods category, notable increases were seen in non-durable goods, particularly prescription drugs, and motor vehicles and parts. The services sector saw gains primarily in health care—specifically outpatient services—and food services and accommodations.

  2. Exports: The surge in exports was led by capital goods, excluding automotive products, signaling robust demand for U.S. products overseas.

  3. Federal Government Spending: An increase in defense spending helped bolster overall federal spending, contributing positively to the GDP figure.

  4. Imports: It’s worth noting that imports also increased during this period, and since imports are subtracted in the GDP calculation, this rise partly offset the other gains.

What’s Behind the Deceleration?

While consumer spending and exports gained traction, the third quarter saw a notable reduction in private inventory investment. This suggests that businesses might be treading cautiously, perhaps in response to economic uncertainties or inventory management strategies. Additionally, the decrease in residential fixed investment indicates continued challenges in the housing market, which has been a trend in recent quarters.

Current-Dollar GDP and Price Indices

In terms of current-dollar GDP, the economy expanded by 4.7%, translating to an increase of $333.2 billion, bringing the total to $29.35 trillion. This was a step down from the 5.6% growth recorded in the second quarter.

Inflationary pressures showed signs of easing in Q3. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by just 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure for consumer prices, rose by 1.5%, a significant drop from the 2.5% in Q2. When food and energy were excluded, the PCE price index marked a 2.2% increase, compared to 2.8% in Q2.

Personal Income and Savings

Personal income continued to grow but at a slower pace, increasing by $221.3 billion in Q3 compared to $315.7 billion in Q2. The rise was largely driven by higher compensation. Real disposable personal income, adjusted for inflation, increased by 1.6% following a 2.4% rise in the previous quarter.

The personal saving rate—a gauge of how much income households are saving—dropped to 4.8%, down from 5.2% in Q2. This decline could indicate that consumers are tapping into their savings more to sustain spending in the face of income pressures or shifting economic conditions.

What’s Next?

The “second” estimate for Q3 2024, which will include more comprehensive data, is set for release on November 27, 2024. This revision will offer a clearer picture of economic trends and potential adjustments to today’s figures. Alongside it, the BEA will release a preliminary estimate for corporate profits, adding more context to the overall economic landscape.

Final Thoughts

The U.S. economy showed solid yet slightly moderated growth in Q3 2024, signaling resilience despite facing various headwinds. Consumers continued to spend, the federal government increased its investments, and exports remained robust, showcasing strength in multiple sectors. However, cautionary trends, such as the dip in private inventory investment and the slowdown in income growth, suggest that businesses and consumers are navigating an uncertain economic climate. The coming months and further data will provide deeper insights into whether this moderation is temporary or indicative of a broader economic trend.

Stay tuned for the BEA’s next release on November 27 for a more refined view of the third quarter and a look at corporate profit trends.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

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15 pips potential profit in 6 seconds on 29 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 15 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 29 October 2024.

USDJPY (11 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

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September 2024 Job Market Insights: Steady Openings, Slow Hiring, and a Mixed Separation Picture

The U.S. job market showed signs of stability in September 2024, with job openings holding relatively steady at 7.4 million, slightly below August’s revised estimate of 7.9 million. The recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives insight into key labor dynamics, including the balance of job openings, hiring, and separations, while revealing subtle shifts across industries and employer sizes.

Here’s a closer look at what September’s data tells us about the current labor landscape.

Job Openings: Stable but Slower Than Last Year

The number of available jobs in September remained virtually unchanged at 7.4 million, though the year-over-year decline—down by 1.9 million—suggests a gradual cooling in labor demand. The job openings rate held steady at 4.5%. Health care, social assistance, and government roles saw the most significant drops in job postings, with decreases in sectors like state and local government (down by 79,000) and the federal government (down by 28,000). Interestingly, finance and insurance bucked the trend, gaining 85,000 openings in the month.

This dip in job openings across several fields may indicate a shift as employers scale back hiring plans amid economic uncertainties.

Hiring Holds Steady

Hiring rates also saw little movement, with a total of 5.6 million hires in September, consistent with August’s levels. At a hiring rate of 3.5%, employers appear cautious, holding back on aggressive hiring despite the availability of open positions. This measured hiring approach could reflect a shift in focus toward retaining and optimizing current staff, particularly in industries experiencing labor shortages.

Separations: Mixed Signals in Quits and Layoffs

The separation rate remained flat at 5.2 million, though there were intriguing shifts within the categories:

  • Quits: The quit rate, a key indicator of worker confidence, held at 1.9%, with 3.1 million workers voluntarily leaving their roles. Notably, quits in professional and business services declined by 94,000, while sectors like state and local government (excluding education) and real estate saw slight increases in voluntary separations. Year-over-year, quits have dropped by 525,000, suggesting workers may be more inclined to stay put, potentially due to a perceived lack of new opportunities or concerns about economic volatility.

  • Layoffs and Discharges: Layoffs and discharges remained at 1.8 million, but the year-over-year comparison reveals a jump of 238,000, with notable layoffs in durable goods manufacturing (+46,000). The layoffs and discharges rate inched up to 1.2%, signaling that certain sectors are actively reassessing workforce needs as demand fluctuates.

Other forms of separations, such as retirements, deaths, and relocations, remained mostly static, with 292,000 reported in September.

Trends by Establishment Size

Smaller establishments with fewer than 10 employees saw little movement in job openings, hires, or quits, though their layoffs and discharges rate did rise. On the opposite end of the spectrum, large companies (5,000+ employees) also saw little variation in their openings, hires, and separations rates, possibly indicating an advantage in workforce stability and access to resources for larger employers.

Revisions for August 2024

The BLS revised its August estimates, adjusting job openings downward to 7.9 million, while hires were revised up to 5.4 million. The upward revision in separations, particularly in quits and layoffs, provides further insight into the workforce adjustments underway as employers and workers navigate a changing economic landscape.

What This Means for Workers and Employers

September’s data paints a picture of a job market that’s stabilizing after rapid shifts in recent years. For job seekers, the steady job openings rate and gradual decline in quits could suggest that competition for roles remains robust. Employers, meanwhile, appear to be more conservative in their hiring strategies, focusing on retaining current employees while selectively filling roles in sectors like finance and insurance.

Looking ahead, the labor market’s trajectory may continue on this path of moderation. For workers, it could mean fewer opportunities for job-hopping, while employers may increasingly emphasize retaining and training existing staff.

As we await the next JOLTS release on December 3, 2024, it’s clear that flexibility and adaptability remain crucial in navigating today’s dynamic job market.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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34 ticks potential profit in 48 seconds on 24 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 34 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 24 October 2024.

Natural gas (38 ticks)

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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: October 18, 2024 – Key Highlights and Insights

As we approach the colder months, the latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) offers crucial insights into the current state of natural gas reserves. For the week ending October 18, 2024, working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states reached 3,785 billion cubic feet (Bcf), representing a net increase of 80 Bcf compared to the previous week. This puts total storage levels 106 Bcf higher than the same period last year and 167 Bcf above the five-year average.

Regional Breakdown and Implied Flows

The report highlights steady growth in gas reserves across various regions:

  • East Region: The working gas in storage increased by 8 Bcf to reach 901 Bcf, which is slightly below last year’s figure of 905 Bcf, representing a small 0.4% decrease. However, it remains 1.9% above the five-year average of 884 Bcf.

  • Midwest Region: A significant uptick of 21 Bcf brought storage to 1,088 Bcf. This represents a 1.9% increase from last year and a 3.0% increase over the five-year average of 1,056 Bcf, signaling healthy storage levels in this critical region.

  • Mountain Region: Although the region saw a smaller increase of 4 Bcf, its reserves now stand at 291 Bcf, marking a substantial 15.9% growth compared to last year and a 30.5% rise over the five-year average, which sits at 223 Bcf. This is one of the most pronounced increases of all regions.

  • Pacific Region: With an additional 7 Bcf, the Pacific region’s gas reserves are now at 300 Bcf. This is 6.4% higher than last year’s 282 Bcf and 6.8% above the five-year average of 281 Bcf.

  • South Central Region: The largest weekly net change came from the South Central region, where storage levels increased by 39 Bcf, reaching a total of 1,205 Bcf. This includes a 21 Bcf increase in salt-dome storage, now at 314 Bcf, and a 19 Bcf increase in nonsalt storage, bringing that total to 891 Bcf. The region is performing 2.7% better than last year and is 2.6% above the five-year average.

Total Storage and Implications

At 3,785 Bcf, total working gas in storage is comfortably within the five-year historical range. This storage level provides a cushion as we head into the winter heating season, where demand typically spikes. The net increase of 80 Bcf from the prior week is a healthy signal that the market is preparing adequately for potential weather-driven demand surges in the coming months.

The 106 Bcf year-over-year surplus and 167 Bcf surplus over the five-year average indicate robust storage levels, which should help moderate price volatility as temperatures drop and heating demand rises. With winter approaching, natural gas storage figures will be critical in determining price stability and supply adequacy in the coming months.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Healthy Storage Levels: The 3,785 Bcf in storage positions the market well for the winter season, with a notable 106 Bcf increase over last year.

  2. Regional Variations: Some regions, like the Mountain and Pacific, are showing significant year-over-year increases, reflecting improved storage capabilities and preparedness.

  3. Implied Flow of 80 Bcf: The overall weekly increase of 80 Bcf is consistent with seasonal storage trends and ensures a stable supply going into winter.

  4. Price and Supply Outlook: With storage levels above historical averages, there’s a strong foundation to mitigate supply concerns and manage price spikes that may arise from unexpected weather events or surges in demand.

The next release on October 31, 2024, will offer further insight as we monitor natural gas reserves closely during this critical period. Stay tuned for updates, as storage dynamics play a crucial role in the natural gas market and energy planning throughout the winter season.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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24 pips potential profit in 5 seconds on 24 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 24 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 24 October 2024.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

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Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims Report: A Look at the Latest Trends

In the latest report released on October 19, 2024, the U.S. Department of Labor provided an overview of the unemployment insurance claims for the week. The data reveals mixed signals, with a notable drop in initial claims but an increase in the overall number of people receiving unemployment benefits. Let’s dive into the key highlights and what they mean for the labor market.

Initial Unemployment Claims Drop

One of the most encouraging pieces of data from this report is the drop in seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims. For the week ending on October 19, the number of new claims fell by 15,000 to a total of 227,000. This decrease follows the previous week’s revised figure, which was adjusted up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000.

The decline in initial claims suggests that fewer people are being laid off or forced to file for unemployment benefits, which could be a positive sign of labor market stability. Despite the slight upward revision for the previous week, this drop signals potential improvements in job security.

4-Week Moving Average: A Slight Increase

While the weekly initial claims showed a decrease, the 4-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, saw a slight increase. The new average is now 238,500, up by 2,000 from the prior week’s revised average of 236,500. This uptick indicates that, while the weekly data looks favorable, the overall trend in unemployment claims remains steady, with no major swings in either direction.

Insured Unemployment Rises

The report also highlights a rise in the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate, which refers to the percentage of people currently receiving unemployment benefits relative to the total labor force. For the week ending October 12, the insured unemployment rate increased to 1.3%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the prior week’s unrevised rate. This may suggest that, while fewer people are filing new claims, the number of those remaining on unemployment rolls has grown.

The advance number of people receiving unemployment benefits, known as "insured unemployment," increased by 28,000 to 1,897,000, marking the highest level since November 2021. The previous week’s level was also revised upward by 2,000, indicating a trend of more individuals staying on unemployment for a longer period. This uptick could reflect challenges in finding new employment or could be the result of broader economic shifts affecting certain sectors.

What Does This Mean for the Labor Market?

The mixed nature of the report suggests a labor market that is neither deteriorating rapidly nor improving dramatically. On one hand, the drop in initial claims points to some resilience, as fewer workers are filing for unemployment benefits. On the other hand, the increase in continuing claims indicates that once unemployed, some individuals are struggling to find new jobs quickly.

Several factors could explain this trend. Rising insured unemployment could be attributed to specific industries facing downturns or seasonal fluctuations. Additionally, some workers may be staying in unemployment longer due to mismatches between available jobs and their skills or geographic location.

Conclusion

This week's unemployment claims report offers a snapshot of a labor market that remains in flux. While fewer workers are filing new claims, more are remaining on the unemployment rolls, leading to an overall rise in insured unemployment. As always, it’s important to keep an eye on both the short-term fluctuations and the long-term trends to get a clearer picture of the health of the job market.

For businesses and policymakers, these numbers highlight the importance of addressing both the immediate needs of unemployed workers and the underlying structural issues that could be contributing to the rising insured unemployment rate. Moving forward, the labor market will need to show more sustained improvements to ensure that more people can find stable, long-term employment.

Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor these trends and their implications for the broader economy!

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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