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15 pips potential profit in 6 seconds on 29 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 15 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 29 October 2024.

USDJPY (11 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

September 2024 Job Market Insights: Steady Openings, Slow Hiring, and a Mixed Separation Picture

The U.S. job market showed signs of stability in September 2024, with job openings holding relatively steady at 7.4 million, slightly below August’s revised estimate of 7.9 million. The recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives insight into key labor dynamics, including the balance of job openings, hiring, and separations, while revealing subtle shifts across industries and employer sizes.

Here’s a closer look at what September’s data tells us about the current labor landscape.

Job Openings: Stable but Slower Than Last Year

The number of available jobs in September remained virtually unchanged at 7.4 million, though the year-over-year decline—down by 1.9 million—suggests a gradual cooling in labor demand. The job openings rate held steady at 4.5%. Health care, social assistance, and government roles saw the most significant drops in job postings, with decreases in sectors like state and local government (down by 79,000) and the federal government (down by 28,000). Interestingly, finance and insurance bucked the trend, gaining 85,000 openings in the month.

This dip in job openings across several fields may indicate a shift as employers scale back hiring plans amid economic uncertainties.

Hiring Holds Steady

Hiring rates also saw little movement, with a total of 5.6 million hires in September, consistent with August’s levels. At a hiring rate of 3.5%, employers appear cautious, holding back on aggressive hiring despite the availability of open positions. This measured hiring approach could reflect a shift in focus toward retaining and optimizing current staff, particularly in industries experiencing labor shortages.

Separations: Mixed Signals in Quits and Layoffs

The separation rate remained flat at 5.2 million, though there were intriguing shifts within the categories:

  • Quits: The quit rate, a key indicator of worker confidence, held at 1.9%, with 3.1 million workers voluntarily leaving their roles. Notably, quits in professional and business services declined by 94,000, while sectors like state and local government (excluding education) and real estate saw slight increases in voluntary separations. Year-over-year, quits have dropped by 525,000, suggesting workers may be more inclined to stay put, potentially due to a perceived lack of new opportunities or concerns about economic volatility.

  • Layoffs and Discharges: Layoffs and discharges remained at 1.8 million, but the year-over-year comparison reveals a jump of 238,000, with notable layoffs in durable goods manufacturing (+46,000). The layoffs and discharges rate inched up to 1.2%, signaling that certain sectors are actively reassessing workforce needs as demand fluctuates.

Other forms of separations, such as retirements, deaths, and relocations, remained mostly static, with 292,000 reported in September.

Trends by Establishment Size

Smaller establishments with fewer than 10 employees saw little movement in job openings, hires, or quits, though their layoffs and discharges rate did rise. On the opposite end of the spectrum, large companies (5,000+ employees) also saw little variation in their openings, hires, and separations rates, possibly indicating an advantage in workforce stability and access to resources for larger employers.

Revisions for August 2024

The BLS revised its August estimates, adjusting job openings downward to 7.9 million, while hires were revised up to 5.4 million. The upward revision in separations, particularly in quits and layoffs, provides further insight into the workforce adjustments underway as employers and workers navigate a changing economic landscape.

What This Means for Workers and Employers

September’s data paints a picture of a job market that’s stabilizing after rapid shifts in recent years. For job seekers, the steady job openings rate and gradual decline in quits could suggest that competition for roles remains robust. Employers, meanwhile, appear to be more conservative in their hiring strategies, focusing on retaining current employees while selectively filling roles in sectors like finance and insurance.

Looking ahead, the labor market’s trajectory may continue on this path of moderation. For workers, it could mean fewer opportunities for job-hopping, while employers may increasingly emphasize retaining and training existing staff.

As we await the next JOLTS release on December 3, 2024, it’s clear that flexibility and adaptability remain crucial in navigating today’s dynamic job market.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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34 ticks potential profit in 48 seconds on 24 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 34 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 24 October 2024.

Natural gas (38 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: October 18, 2024 – Key Highlights and Insights

As we approach the colder months, the latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) offers crucial insights into the current state of natural gas reserves. For the week ending October 18, 2024, working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states reached 3,785 billion cubic feet (Bcf), representing a net increase of 80 Bcf compared to the previous week. This puts total storage levels 106 Bcf higher than the same period last year and 167 Bcf above the five-year average.

Regional Breakdown and Implied Flows

The report highlights steady growth in gas reserves across various regions:

  • East Region: The working gas in storage increased by 8 Bcf to reach 901 Bcf, which is slightly below last year’s figure of 905 Bcf, representing a small 0.4% decrease. However, it remains 1.9% above the five-year average of 884 Bcf.

  • Midwest Region: A significant uptick of 21 Bcf brought storage to 1,088 Bcf. This represents a 1.9% increase from last year and a 3.0% increase over the five-year average of 1,056 Bcf, signaling healthy storage levels in this critical region.

  • Mountain Region: Although the region saw a smaller increase of 4 Bcf, its reserves now stand at 291 Bcf, marking a substantial 15.9% growth compared to last year and a 30.5% rise over the five-year average, which sits at 223 Bcf. This is one of the most pronounced increases of all regions.

  • Pacific Region: With an additional 7 Bcf, the Pacific region’s gas reserves are now at 300 Bcf. This is 6.4% higher than last year’s 282 Bcf and 6.8% above the five-year average of 281 Bcf.

  • South Central Region: The largest weekly net change came from the South Central region, where storage levels increased by 39 Bcf, reaching a total of 1,205 Bcf. This includes a 21 Bcf increase in salt-dome storage, now at 314 Bcf, and a 19 Bcf increase in nonsalt storage, bringing that total to 891 Bcf. The region is performing 2.7% better than last year and is 2.6% above the five-year average.

Total Storage and Implications

At 3,785 Bcf, total working gas in storage is comfortably within the five-year historical range. This storage level provides a cushion as we head into the winter heating season, where demand typically spikes. The net increase of 80 Bcf from the prior week is a healthy signal that the market is preparing adequately for potential weather-driven demand surges in the coming months.

The 106 Bcf year-over-year surplus and 167 Bcf surplus over the five-year average indicate robust storage levels, which should help moderate price volatility as temperatures drop and heating demand rises. With winter approaching, natural gas storage figures will be critical in determining price stability and supply adequacy in the coming months.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Healthy Storage Levels: The 3,785 Bcf in storage positions the market well for the winter season, with a notable 106 Bcf increase over last year.

  2. Regional Variations: Some regions, like the Mountain and Pacific, are showing significant year-over-year increases, reflecting improved storage capabilities and preparedness.

  3. Implied Flow of 80 Bcf: The overall weekly increase of 80 Bcf is consistent with seasonal storage trends and ensures a stable supply going into winter.

  4. Price and Supply Outlook: With storage levels above historical averages, there’s a strong foundation to mitigate supply concerns and manage price spikes that may arise from unexpected weather events or surges in demand.

The next release on October 31, 2024, will offer further insight as we monitor natural gas reserves closely during this critical period. Stay tuned for updates, as storage dynamics play a crucial role in the natural gas market and energy planning throughout the winter season.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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24 pips potential profit in 5 seconds on 24 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 24 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 24 October 2024.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims Report: A Look at the Latest Trends

In the latest report released on October 19, 2024, the U.S. Department of Labor provided an overview of the unemployment insurance claims for the week. The data reveals mixed signals, with a notable drop in initial claims but an increase in the overall number of people receiving unemployment benefits. Let’s dive into the key highlights and what they mean for the labor market.

Initial Unemployment Claims Drop

One of the most encouraging pieces of data from this report is the drop in seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims. For the week ending on October 19, the number of new claims fell by 15,000 to a total of 227,000. This decrease follows the previous week’s revised figure, which was adjusted up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000.

The decline in initial claims suggests that fewer people are being laid off or forced to file for unemployment benefits, which could be a positive sign of labor market stability. Despite the slight upward revision for the previous week, this drop signals potential improvements in job security.

4-Week Moving Average: A Slight Increase

While the weekly initial claims showed a decrease, the 4-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, saw a slight increase. The new average is now 238,500, up by 2,000 from the prior week’s revised average of 236,500. This uptick indicates that, while the weekly data looks favorable, the overall trend in unemployment claims remains steady, with no major swings in either direction.

Insured Unemployment Rises

The report also highlights a rise in the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate, which refers to the percentage of people currently receiving unemployment benefits relative to the total labor force. For the week ending October 12, the insured unemployment rate increased to 1.3%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the prior week’s unrevised rate. This may suggest that, while fewer people are filing new claims, the number of those remaining on unemployment rolls has grown.

The advance number of people receiving unemployment benefits, known as "insured unemployment," increased by 28,000 to 1,897,000, marking the highest level since November 2021. The previous week’s level was also revised upward by 2,000, indicating a trend of more individuals staying on unemployment for a longer period. This uptick could reflect challenges in finding new employment or could be the result of broader economic shifts affecting certain sectors.

What Does This Mean for the Labor Market?

The mixed nature of the report suggests a labor market that is neither deteriorating rapidly nor improving dramatically. On one hand, the drop in initial claims points to some resilience, as fewer workers are filing for unemployment benefits. On the other hand, the increase in continuing claims indicates that once unemployed, some individuals are struggling to find new jobs quickly.

Several factors could explain this trend. Rising insured unemployment could be attributed to specific industries facing downturns or seasonal fluctuations. Additionally, some workers may be staying in unemployment longer due to mismatches between available jobs and their skills or geographic location.

Conclusion

This week's unemployment claims report offers a snapshot of a labor market that remains in flux. While fewer workers are filing new claims, more are remaining on the unemployment rolls, leading to an overall rise in insured unemployment. As always, it’s important to keep an eye on both the short-term fluctuations and the long-term trends to get a clearer picture of the health of the job market.

For businesses and policymakers, these numbers highlight the importance of addressing both the immediate needs of unemployed workers and the underlying structural issues that could be contributing to the rising insured unemployment rate. Moving forward, the labor market will need to show more sustained improvements to ensure that more people can find stable, long-term employment.

Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor these trends and their implications for the broader economy!

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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876 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 13 events in the third quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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876 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 13 events in the third quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 876 pips/ticks profit out of the following 13 events in the third quarter of 2024 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2023 was 13,607 pips/ticks.

Q3 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q3 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 12 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

Q3 2024 Economic Review: Key Trends and Market Insights

As we close out the third quarter of 2024, it's clear that this period has been defined by significant economic shifts, market volatility, and pivotal policy decisions. Traders and investors in forex, equity and commodities markets have witnessed sharp market movements, particularly in response to macroeconomic data releases, monetary policy decisions, and inflationary pressures. The potential trading profit from machine-readable data feeds like Haawks G4A was substantial, with multiple high-impact events driving opportunities across global markets.

Let’s take a look back at the key trends, events, and economic insights from Q3 2024.

Labor Market Resilience and Inflation Stubbornness

Q3 began with continued strength in the U.S. labor market, marked by steady job openings and persistent wage growth, despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool down inflation. Reports like the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in both August and September revealed a tight labor market, with job openings climbing above 8 million.

The resilience of the labor market presented a dilemma for policymakers: while robust employment is a positive economic indicator, it also contributes to inflationary pressures. Higher wages, combined with strong consumer demand, added to the sticky inflation landscape that the Federal Reserve has been trying to manage since 2022.

Despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle, inflation remained higher than the desired 2% target, especially when looking at core inflation metrics. Energy prices, particularly gasoline, surged again in September, further fueling price increases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for July, August, and September all pointed to ongoing inflation, with price increases driven by energy, housing, and services.

Key Events Driving Market Movements

Several economic releases and policy announcements drove sharp market movements throughout Q3, providing traders with ample opportunities for potential profits using Haawks G4A machine-readable data feeds. Here are some of the most significant:

1. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – August 2, 2024

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report kicked off Q3 with a notable surprise: weaker-than-expected job growth. This led to a 90-pip market movement, as traders speculated that the Federal Reserve might slow down its monetary tightening due to the possibility of an economic slowdown. The weaker NFP numbers were one of the first signs that the U.S. labor market might be losing steam, signaling potential softening ahead.

2. FOMC Rate Cut – September 18, 2024

One of the most important events in Q3 was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. This marked the first rate cut since 2022, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% - 5.00%. The rate cut was a response to softer economic data and inflation that, while moderating, still posed risks to the broader economy.

This move triggered a significant 62-pip reaction in the markets, as investors recalibrated expectations for the future path of Fed policy. Traders quickly adjusted their positions, anticipating further cuts in the coming months as the Fed aims to balance economic growth with price stability.

3. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Monthly Reports

Inflation data remained a focal point for traders throughout Q3, with CPI reports showing inflation still above target. While headline inflation showed some moderation, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained sticky. The July CPI report saw a 32-pip movement, while the August and September reports led to additional fluctuations in the markets, as traders adjusted their expectations for future Fed rate cuts or potential reversals.

Global Economic Developments

While the U.S. economy was the dominant focus of Q3, global developments also played a role in shaping the economic landscape. Sweden, for instance, saw its Consumer Price Index (CPI) rise sharply in July, triggering a 272-pip market movement. This significant jump suggested that inflationary pressures were also present in Europe, prompting central banks, like Sweden’s Riksbank, to adopt a more hawkish stance to curb rising prices.

Commodity markets also saw significant action during the quarter. The Department of Energy's (DOE) Natural Gas Storage Reports, released in July and August, resulted in substantial movements in natural gas prices as supply-demand dynamics continued to affect energy costs worldwide. This volatility provided further opportunities for traders involved in energy commodities.

The Federal Reserve's Balancing Act

Perhaps the defining feature of Q3 2024 was the Federal Reserve’s cautious shift in policy. After a prolonged period of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the Fed’s decision to cut rates in September signaled a more measured approach. However, the central bank made it clear that future rate cuts would depend on incoming data, particularly inflation and labor market trends.

As we look ahead to Q4, market participants will closely monitor the evolving economic landscape, especially as the Fed navigates the delicate balance between supporting economic growth and achieving price stability.

What Lies Ahead in Q4 2024?

The fourth quarter of 2024 is set to bring more significant economic events, with traders and investors likely to focus on several key indicators:

  1. Further Labor Market Data: Will job growth continue to slow, and will wage pressures ease enough to allow inflation to come down?

  2. Inflation Reports: As energy prices fluctuate, traders will be keen to see whether inflation moderates in Q4, influencing future Fed rate decisions.

  3. Global Economic Health: With other central banks also grappling with inflation, global economic trends will play a crucial role in shaping market movements.

For traders leveraging Haawks G4A low-latency data feeds, staying informed and reacting quickly to these developments will be key to maximizing potential profits as markets continue to experience volatility.

Conclusion

Q3 2024 was a dynamic and eventful period, marked by resilient labor markets, persistent inflation, and a notable shift in U.S. monetary policy. Traders who utilized machine-readable data to respond quickly to these economic releases were well-positioned to capitalize on significant market movements. As we head into the final quarter of the year, the economic landscape remains uncertain, but opportunities for informed and strategic trading abound.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Switzerland Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

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47 pips potential profit in 91 seconds on 17 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims and US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey data on 17 October 2024.

USDJPY (32 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Economic Insights: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, and Manufacturing Outlook – October 17, 2024

Today, three significant economic reports were released, shedding light on the current state of U.S. retail, labor, and manufacturing sectors. These reports provide a snapshot of key economic indicators—retail sales performance, unemployment insurance claims, and regional manufacturing activity. Let’s break down each release to understand their implications and what they mean for the broader U.S. economy.

1. U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales - September 2024

The U.S. retail and food services sector continues to exhibit moderate growth, with September 2024 sales reaching $714.4 billion. This reflects a 0.4% increase from August 2024, and a 1.7% increase compared to September 2023. Over the three-month period from July to September, total sales grew 2.3% year-over-year, indicating a steady consumer demand despite economic headwinds.

Key highlights:

  • Nonstore retailers (e.g., e-commerce) showed remarkable resilience, posting a 7.1% year-over-year growth.

  • Food services and drinking places also saw an uptick, growing 3.7% from September 2023.

  • Traditional retail trade sales rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year.

While the growth was moderate, the steady increase reflects resilience in consumer spending, a critical driver of economic activity in the U.S. economy. It will be important to monitor holiday season sales, as they could further influence retail performance into the year’s end.

2. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims - October 12, 2024

The labor market remains a focal point of economic analysis, and today’s unemployment insurance claims report offers some encouraging news. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 12 decreased by 19,000 to 241,000, suggesting a stabilization in labor market conditions. While this is a positive sign, the four-week moving average—considered a more reliable indicator—rose slightly to 236,250, indicating some lingering volatility.

Other key labor data:

  • The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2% for the week ending October 5.

  • Continuing claims (insured unemployment) rose by 9,000 to 1.867 million, signaling a slight increase in the number of individuals staying on unemployment benefits.

  • Despite this, the overall trend shows a labor market that remains robust, albeit with some fluctuations.

This drop in new claims aligns with the broader narrative of a tight labor market where employers are still holding on to workers despite broader economic uncertainty. However, as the Federal Reserve continues its balancing act between inflation control and employment growth, it will be important to watch whether these positive trends continue into the final months of 2024.

3. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey - October 2024

The October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reveals encouraging signs of expansion in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic region. The index for general activity surged to 10.3, up from 1.7 in September, marking a second consecutive month of growth. After a brief decline last month, both the new orders index (14.2) and shipments index (7.4) returned to positive territory, signaling renewed demand.

However, some challenges remain:

  • The employment index declined into negative territory at -2.2, suggesting that while most firms are maintaining steady employment, a small share of manufacturers are reducing their workforce.

  • Price pressures continue to persist, though the index for prices paid (input costs) dropped to 29.7, indicating a slight easing of inflationary pressures.

Looking ahead, manufacturers expressed optimism about future growth. The diffusion index for future general activity jumped to 36.7, with 47% of firms expecting increased activity over the next six months. This optimism is also reflected in anticipated capital expenditures for 2025, with 52% of firms planning to increase investments, particularly in software, hardware, and noncomputer equipment.

What Does This Mean for the Economy?

The combination of rising retail sales, stable unemployment claims, and expanding manufacturing activity paints a cautiously optimistic picture of the U.S. economy. While the labor market is still showing some signs of fluctuation, the underlying trends in consumer spending and manufacturing indicate resilience in key sectors.

The retail sector continues to grow, albeit modestly, suggesting consumers are still driving the economy forward. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector is showing renewed strength, particularly in demand for goods. Labor markets remain tight, but the slight increase in continuing unemployment claims suggests there may still be some room for concern.

As we head into the holiday season and the final quarter of 2024, these reports will serve as important benchmarks for policymakers and investors. Will consumer demand stay strong? Can manufacturers keep pace with rising orders? And will labor markets continue to hold up against potential economic headwinds? These are the questions to keep an eye on as we move into 2025.

Stay tuned for further updates as more data emerges and economic conditions evolve.

Sources: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html, https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2024-10

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126 pips potential profit in 52 seconds on 4 October 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 126 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 4 October 2024.

USDJPY (93 pips)

EURUSD (33 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

September 2024 Employment Report: Key Highlights and Insights

The U.S. job market continued to show resilience in September 2024, with total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 254,000 jobs. This growth marks a stronger-than-average monthly gain, outpacing the 203,000 average of the past 12 months. The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%, reflecting a relatively stable labor market despite ongoing economic pressures and a significant weather event.

Noteworthy Sectors Leading Job Growth

Several key industries contributed to September's employment gains:

  1. Food Services and Drinking Places: This sector saw a remarkable increase of 69,000 jobs, a substantial jump compared to its prior 12-month average of 14,000 jobs per month. This may suggest a resurgence in consumer spending on dining out, possibly influenced by seasonal factors or recovering demand following earlier economic fluctuations.

  2. Health Care: Adding 45,000 jobs, this sector experienced slightly slower growth than its recent monthly average of 57,000. Key areas of hiring included:

    • Home health care services (+13,000)

    • Hospitals (+12,000)

    • Nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000)

  3. Government: Employment in the public sector grew by 31,000, driven largely by gains in local (+16,000) and state (+13,000) government jobs. While this is positive, it remains below the prior 12-month average gain of 45,000.

  4. Social Assistance: Adding 27,000 jobs, this sector's growth was focused primarily on individual and family services (+21,000). This reflects the growing need for support services in communities, highlighting social and demographic changes driving demand.

  5. Construction: Employment rose by 25,000 jobs, continuing a steady trend of growth in the industry, fueled largely by nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+17,000). This aligns with broader infrastructure development efforts across the country.

Stable Sectors and Broader Labor Trends

While certain industries showed significant gains, others remained stable with little change in employment. These include mining, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and professional and business services.

Despite the steady job creation, unemployment held at 4.1%, equating to about 6.8 million unemployed individuals. This is higher than a year ago when the jobless rate was 3.8%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. The number of long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or more, remained at 1.6 million, representing 23.7% of all unemployed individuals.

Moreover, the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7%, a sign that the overall percentage of Americans either working or actively looking for work has stabilized, though it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Economic Indicators Beyond Job Creation

Several additional data points from the report shed light on broader labor market dynamics:

  • Wages: The average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 13 cents, or 0.4%, reaching $35.36. Year over year, wages have risen by 4.0%, indicating that wages are keeping pace with inflationary pressures.

  • Workweek: The average workweek for all private-sector employees edged down slightly to 34.2 hours, while the manufacturing workweek remained steady at 40.0 hours.

Impact of Hurricane Francine

Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in southern Louisiana on September 11, had no discernible effect on national payroll employment, hours, or earnings, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Despite the storm's impact on local areas, national survey response rates remained within normal ranges, suggesting limited disruption at the national level. However, it will be important to monitor the October and November reports for any delayed effects in the regional labor markets most affected by the hurricane.

Revisions to Prior Data

The BLS also revised upward the employment changes for July and August by a combined 72,000 jobs. This upward revision highlights the challenges of gathering accurate, timely data, especially in the midst of economic uncertainty, but also reinforces the underlying strength of the job market over the summer months.

Looking Ahead

As we move toward the end of 2024, the labor market continues to exhibit signs of stability, though potential challenges remain. Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and external factors like extreme weather events could still influence employment trends in the coming months. The upcoming October 2024 employment report will provide further insights into how the job market is evolving and whether the current trajectory of growth can be sustained through the end of the year.

In the meantime, this month's report offers encouraging news for several key industries, particularly in service sectors like food, health care, and social assistance. Despite some broader economic concerns, the U.S. labor market remains on a solid footing.

Stay tuned for the next report on November 1, 2024, for the latest updates and analysis on the nation's employment situation.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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62 pips potential profit in 46 seconds on 18 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 62 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 18 September 2024.

USDJPY (47 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Update: September 18, 2024 - A Closer Look at Economic Projections and Policy Adjustments

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest projections and made an important adjustment to the federal funds rate. These changes reflect the committee’s ongoing efforts to navigate a complex economic landscape while balancing its dual mandate—promoting maximum employment and stabilizing inflation around its 2% target.

Summary of Economic Projections

The FOMC's summary of economic projections provides a window into the future, outlining expectations for key economic indicators such as real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate through 2027. Here's a breakdown of the main highlights:

1. Real GDP Growth

  • 2024-2027 Forecast: The median real GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 2.0% each year from 2024 through 2027. The longer-run projection sits slightly lower at 1.8%.

  • Comparison to June Projections: The September projections show slight moderation compared to the June meeting, where 2024's GDP growth was expected to hit 2.1%.

  • Key Takeaway: Despite some fluctuations earlier in the year, growth is expected to stabilize, reflecting resilience in the broader economy, even as global and domestic challenges persist.

2. Unemployment Rate

  • 2024-2027 Forecast: The unemployment rate is projected to hover around 4.4% in 2024 and 2025, gradually falling to 4.2% by 2027. The longer-run forecast stabilizes at 4.2%.

  • Comparison to June Projections: This is an upward revision from June’s projection of 4.0% for 2024, signaling a softer labor market.

  • Key Takeaway: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up slightly, it remains low by historical standards, indicating a robust labor market.

3. Inflation (PCE and Core PCE)

  • 2024-2027 Forecast: Headline PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3% in 2024, gradually tapering to 2.0% by 2026 and beyond. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to fall from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2026 and remain there.

  • Comparison to June Projections: The September report reveals a more optimistic outlook for inflation, with PCE and core PCE projections slightly lower than June.

  • Key Takeaway: Inflation has made significant progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, signaling that the Fed's tightening policies are having the desired effect.

4. Federal Funds Rate

  • 2024-2027 Forecast: The FOMC projects a median federal funds rate of 4.4% for 2024, falling to 3.4% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. The longer-run forecast stands at 2.9%.

  • Key Takeaway: After aggressive rate hikes in 2023, the Fed is signaling a more accommodative policy stance in the coming years as inflation moderates.

Monetary Policy Update: Rate Cut Announced

In a noteworthy move, the FOMC decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, bringing it down to 4.75%–5.00%. This is the first rate cut since the aggressive rate hikes began in response to pandemic-related inflation surges. The committee cited progress on inflation and balanced risks as reasons for the decision.

Why Now?

  • Progress on Inflation: The FOMC expressed greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target, allowing room for easing. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Fed remains cautious.

  • Economic Activity: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has increased slightly, economic activity is still expanding at a solid pace. This balance supports a more gradual easing in monetary policy.

  • Balanced Risks: The FOMC acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, but the risks to achieving its goals of full employment and stable prices are now seen as more balanced.

Dissenting View

Michelle W. Bowman, one of the committee members, voted against the 0.5% rate cut, preferring a more cautious reduction of 0.25 percentage points. This reflects some lingering concerns about inflationary pressures and the need to stay vigilant.

Looking Ahead

The FOMC's projections suggest that the U.S. economy is on a stable path, with inflation gradually cooling and the labor market remaining resilient despite slight upticks in the unemployment rate. As inflation continues to converge toward the 2% target, the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious but flexible approach, carefully assessing incoming data to adjust its policy as necessary.

While today’s rate cut marks a shift toward a more accommodative policy stance, the committee remains committed to balancing its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The path of future rate adjustments will depend on evolving economic conditions, particularly inflationary trends and labor market dynamics.

As always, we’ll keep a close watch on future FOMC meetings and their implications for the economy, businesses, and consumers alike.

Stay tuned for more updates as the economic outlook continues to evolve!

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20240918.htm

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27 pips potential profit in 7 seconds on 11 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 27 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 September 2024.

USDJPY (17 pips)

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Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Latest CPI Data: Key Takeaways from August 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024 reveals subtle yet important trends in the U.S. economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, maintaining the same rate of increase as observed in July. Over the past 12 months, the index recorded a 2.5 percent increase before seasonal adjustments, marking a relatively modest inflationary trend compared to previous years.

Breakdown of CPI Components:

  • Shelter: The cost of shelter continued to be a significant driver of the overall index, rising by 0.5 percent in August, thus contributing majorly to the broader index's movement.

  • Food: Food prices saw a slight increase of 0.1 percent, with food away from home experiencing a higher rise of 0.3 percent compared to food at home, which remained unchanged.

  • Energy: Contrasting these increases, the energy index fell by 0.8 percent, influenced by a significant drop in gasoline and fuel oil prices.

Year-over-Year Analysis:

  • General Index: The all-items index increased by 2.5 percent over the year, the smallest 12-month rise since February 2021, indicating a cooling period after higher inflation rates experienced in recent years.

  • Core Inflation: Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation was up by 3.2 percent year-over-year, suggesting underlying pressures remain despite the overall stabilization of the index.

  • Specific Categories: Noteworthy annual increases were seen in shelter (5.2 percent), while energy commodities experienced sharp declines, particularly gasoline and fuel oil, highlighting the fluctuating nature of energy markets.

Sector-Specific Insights:

  • Transportation: Airline fares notably increased by 3.9 percent in August after months of decline, likely reflecting seasonal travel adjustments and broader economic activities.

  • Medical and Apparel: Both sectors saw modest increases, indicating varied consumer spending behaviors across different areas.

Forward-Looking Implications:

The CPI data not only serves as a gauge of past and current economic conditions but also provides insights into potential future trends. The steadiness in core inflation suggests that while the economy faces inflationary pressures, they may be becoming more entrenched at a moderate level. This has implications for monetary policy, as policymakers must balance stimulating economic growth with preventing runaway inflation.

Consumer Impact:

For consumers, understanding the CPI is crucial as it affects everyday decision-making regarding spending, saving, and investing. The variations in food, energy, and housing costs directly impact budgeting and financial planning.

Conclusion:

As we look forward to the CPI data for September 2024, scheduled for release in October, stakeholders from policymakers to consumers should consider the nuanced changes in the CPI components. Staying informed will be key to navigating the economic landscape, which remains dynamic amid varying inflationary pressures.

Inflation continues to be a critical economic indicator that demands close monitoring. For those planning budgets or investments, keeping an eye on these trends can provide essential insights into timing and strategy adjustments necessary to safeguard financial health in an ever-changing economic environment.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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72 pips potential profit in 91 seconds on 4 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 72 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 4 September 2024.

USDJPY (59 pips)

EURUSD (13 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Data: Insights from July 2024

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for July 2024, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the U.S. labor market. Let's dive into the key takeaways from this latest report to understand the current employment landscape better.

Job Openings Remain Steady

As of the last business day of July, the number of job openings in the U.S. remained relatively stable at 7.7 million. Although this figure reflects little change from the previous month, it represents a significant decrease of 1.1 million job openings compared to the same time last year. The job openings rate, which measures the number of job openings as a percentage of total employment plus job openings, held steady at 4.6%.

Breaking it down by sector, notable decreases in job openings were observed in:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance: Down by 187,000

  • State and Local Government, Excluding Education: Down by 101,000

  • Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities: Down by 88,000

Conversely, some sectors saw an increase in job openings:

  • Professional and Business Services: Up by 178,000

  • Federal Government: Up by 28,000

These figures highlight the shifting demand for labor across different sectors of the economy.

Hiring Activity

The number of hires in July remained largely unchanged at 5.5 million, with a hire rate of 3.5%. This stability suggests that employers are maintaining a cautious approach in their hiring practices, possibly due to economic uncertainties or sector-specific challenges.

However, within certain sectors, there were notable changes:

  • Accommodation and Food Services: Hires increased by 156,000, indicating a robust demand for workers in this sector, potentially driven by the continued recovery in travel and dining.

  • Federal Government: Hires decreased by 8,000, reflecting a slowdown in recruitment activities.

Separations: Understanding the Fluctuations

Total separations, which encompass quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, increased to 5.4 million in July, up by 336,000 from the previous month. The total separations rate, however, remained relatively stable at 3.4%.

Quits

Quits, often seen as a measure of workers' confidence in their ability to leave jobs for better opportunities, were unchanged at 3.3 million in July. However, this figure is down by 338,000 from July 2023, indicating a potential decrease in employee mobility or willingness to change jobs.

There was an increase in quits within the Information sector, rising by 16,000. This could signal that workers in this industry feel more confident about their employment prospects or are exploring new opportunities.

Layoffs and Discharges

The number of layoffs and discharges, representing involuntary separations initiated by employers, remained steady at 1.8 million, with a rate of 1.1%. Specific sectors did experience increases:

  • Accommodation and Food Services: Up by 75,000

  • Finance and Insurance: Up by 21,000

These increases suggest that while some sectors are expanding, others are adjusting their workforce needs, potentially due to shifting market conditions or internal restructuring efforts.

Other Separations

"Other separations," which include retirements, deaths, disabilities, and transfers to different locations within the same company, increased to 381,000, up by 71,000 in July. This uptick could reflect demographic shifts or changes in company policies regarding retirements and transfers.

Trends by Establishment Size

The JOLTS report also breaks down data by establishment size, offering a glimpse into how businesses of different sizes are navigating the labor market:

  • Small Establishments (1 to 9 employees): These businesses saw a decrease in the quits rate and an increase in the layoffs and discharges rate, indicating potential challenges in retaining staff or a more dynamic restructuring process.

  • Large Establishments (5,000 or more employees): These larger entities experienced little to no change across various metrics, suggesting a stable employment environment within big businesses.

Revisions to June 2024 Data

It's worth noting that the BLS revised its June 2024 data, with job openings revised down by 274,000 to 7.9 million and hires revised down by 93,000 to 5.2 million. These revisions underscore the evolving nature of labor market data, as new information becomes available and seasonal factors are recalibrated.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS release, which will cover data for August 2024, is scheduled for October 1, 2024. As we await further data, these figures from July offer a snapshot of a labor market in flux, characterized by sector-specific shifts and a cautious approach to hiring and separations. Employers and job seekers alike will benefit from staying informed about these trends as they navigate the current economic landscape.

Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of labor market conditions in the coming months!

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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47 pips potential profit in 56 seconds on 29 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 29 August 2024.

USDJPY (37 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

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U.S. Economy Shows Strong Growth in Q2 2024: A Closer Look at the Latest GDP and Corporate Profits Data

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the "second" estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024, revealing a stronger economic performance than initially reported. The updated figures show a robust annual growth rate of 3.0% for real GDP, marking a notable acceleration from the 1.4% growth observed in the first quarter of the year. This positive momentum underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst various global and domestic challenges.

Key Highlights from the Second Quarter GDP Report

  1. Real GDP Growth: The real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, up from the "advance" estimate of 2.8%. This revision is based on more comprehensive data, particularly reflecting stronger-than-expected consumer spending. In comparison, the GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 1.4%, highlighting a significant acceleration.

  2. Components of GDP: The growth in GDP was driven primarily by increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. However, these gains were partially offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment. Additionally, imports, which subtract from the GDP calculation, increased during the quarter.

  3. Current-Dollar GDP: On a current-dollar basis, GDP increased by 5.5% or $383.2 billion in Q2, reaching a total level of $28.65 trillion. This is an upward revision of $23.2 billion from the previous estimate.

  4. Price Indices: The price index for gross domestic purchases rose by 2.4%, slightly up from the prior estimate of 2.3%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, increased by 2.5%, though this is a slight downward revision from the earlier estimate of 2.6%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE price index increased by 2.8%.

Insights on Personal Income and Savings

  • Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income saw an increase of $233.6 billion in Q2, which is a downward revision of $4.0 billion from the earlier estimate. This rise was primarily driven by higher compensation and personal current transfer receipts.

  • Disposable Personal Income: Disposable personal income, after taxes and adjustments, increased by $183.0 billion or 3.6%, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income, which accounts for inflation, grew by 1.0%.

  • Personal Saving Rate: The personal saving rate, defined as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was revised down to 3.3% from the previous estimate of 3.5%.

Corporate Profits Rebound in Q2 2024

A significant highlight of the report is the rebound in corporate profits in Q2 2024. Profits from current production increased by $57.6 billion, following a decline of $47.1 billion in Q1. This marks a substantial recovery and suggests improved profitability among U.S. businesses.

  • Sectoral Performance: Profits of domestic financial corporations increased by $46.4 billion, though this is a deceleration from the $65.0 billion increase in Q1. Nonfinancial corporations, on the other hand, saw profits rise by $29.2 billion, reversing a decline of $114.5 billion in the previous quarter. However, profits from the rest of the world decreased by $18.0 billion, contrasting with a $2.3 billion increase in Q1.

Understanding the Revisions and Future Releases

The upward revision in the GDP estimate for Q2 was mainly due to stronger consumer spending, offset by downward adjustments in other areas like nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and government spending. The BEA will continue to refine these estimates as more data becomes available.

Looking ahead, the BEA will release the third estimate of GDP and revised corporate profits for Q2 2024 on September 26, 2024. This will coincide with the annual update of the National Economic Accounts, which includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, and gross domestic income.

Conclusion

The latest GDP figures for Q2 2024 indicate a resilient and growing U.S. economy, bolstered by robust consumer spending and a rebound in corporate profits. While certain sectors, such as residential fixed investment, have shown weakness, the overall economic landscape appears positive. As we await further data and the next round of estimates, these findings provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year.

Stay tuned for more updates as the BEA releases additional data in the coming weeks.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-second

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