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40 pips potential profit in 5 seconds on 16 July 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 40 pips on US Retail Sales data on 16 July 2024.

USDJPY (29 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the Latest U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales Data for June 2024

In the latest release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the advance estimates for retail and food services sales in June 2024 presented a mixed bag of results that offer insights into consumer spending habits and economic trends. According to the report, total sales amounted to $704.3 billion, showing no significant change from May 2024 but reflecting a moderate increase of 2.3 percent from June 2023.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

The data, adjusted for seasonal variations and differences in trading days and holidays, provides a clear picture of the market's stability and growth over the past year. Despite the static growth from the previous month, there is a positive uptrend when comparing the data year-over-year. From April to June 2024, total sales saw an increase of 2.5 percent from the same period last year, indicating a steady rise in consumer expenditure.

Interestingly, the April to May 2024 data was revised upward, from a marginal 0.1 percent increase to a more noticeable 0.3 percent. This revision suggests that consumer spending has been slightly more robust than initially estimated.

Sector-Specific Trends

The retail trade sector specifically showed a minor decline of 0.1 percent from May 2024, yet it experienced a 2.0 percent increase compared to last year. This suggests a slow but steady recovery and growth over the long term. Nonstore retailers, which include online and e-commerce platforms, notably outperformed other categories with an impressive 8.9 percent increase from June 2023. This highlights the continuing shift towards online shopping and the strength of digital marketplaces.

On the other hand, food services and drinking places also saw a significant uptick, with sales rising by 4.4 percent from the previous year. This increase may be indicative of a rebound in dining out as consumer confidence in public health safety grows and social restrictions related to the pandemic continue to ease.

What This Means for the Economy

The mixed signals from the June 2024 data reflect the complex interplay of economic recovery, inflation concerns, and shifts in consumer behavior. The stability in month-over-month sales juxtaposed with the annual increases suggests that while the market is not booming, it is resilient amid economic uncertainties.

For investors and business owners, these trends underscore the importance of adjusting to the growing online consumer base and the recovering food service industry. Businesses that can navigate the balance between digital and physical sales channels are likely to see continued success.

Final Thoughts

As we move further into the second half of 2024, all eyes will be on how these trends develop, particularly in the context of economic policies and global market conditions. Will the momentum in nonstore retail and food services continue? How will macroeconomic factors like inflation and employment rates affect consumer spending?

These are critical questions for market analysts, investors, and policymakers as they plan for the coming months. Keeping a close eye on these trends will be key to understanding and anticipating the needs of the U.S. consumer in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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40 ticks potential profit on 12 July 2024, analysis on trading corn futures on USDA WASDE data

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40 ticks potential profit on 12 July 2024, analysis on trading corn futures on USDA WASDE data

According to our analysis corn (ZC) futures prices moved around 40 ticks on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and USDA Grain Stocks data on 12 July 2024.

The JULY WASDE Report: Implications for Global Agriculture Markets

The recently released World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for July 2024 provides crucial insights into the agricultural sector, forecasting trends for commodities like wheat, coarse grains, and oilseeds. These projections not only shape farming strategies but also have significant implications for traders, policymakers, and global markets. Let's delve into the key points from the report and their potential impact.

Wheat: Surplus Production with Lower Prices

The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. wheat indicates an increase in supplies, exports, and ending stocks. Production is expected to rise substantially, with all wheat production increasing by 134 million bushels to 2,008 million. This increase is attributed to larger harvested areas and higher yields, with significant rises noted in both spring wheat and winter wheat production.

Globally, the wheat supply is set to increase by 6.9 million tons, driven by higher production in the United States, Pakistan, and Canada. Pakistan’s wheat production is forecasted to reach a record 31.4 million tons. This surplus in production is likely to push down prices; the season-average farm price for wheat is projected to decrease by $0.80 per bushel to $5.70.

Coarse Grains: Corn Leads with Strong Production

The U.S. corn market is also looking robust with projections indicating larger supplies and increased domestic use and exports, although ending stocks are slightly lower. Corn production is expected to rise by 240 million bushels, with total use increasing by 100 million bushels due to greater feed and residual use and exports. This is likely to decrease the season-average farm price by 10 cents to $4.30 per bushel.

On the international front, the coarse grain outlook is mixed, with reductions in foreign corn production in the EU, Canada, and Russia due to challenging weather conditions. However, global corn exports for 2024/25 have shifted, favoring the United States, while imports are up for Canada and Mexico.

Oilseeds: A Slight Downturn with a Steady Outlook

The U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is projected at 131.5 million tons, with minor adjustments across various seeds. Soybean production is down by 15 million bushels due to a lower harvested area, which might lead to a slight decrease in ending stocks. The season-average soybean price is forecasted at $11.10 per bushel, a slight decrease from previous estimates.

Globally, soybean stocks are slightly down by 0.1 million tons, with notable decreases in Argentina, Brazil, and the EU. This is contrasted by increased soybean imports for China, suggesting a larger demand within the Asian markets.

Market Implications and Strategic Moves

  • Farmers and Agricultural Producers: The increased production in both wheat and corn suggests that farmers might benefit from expanding their acreage or investing in technologies to enhance yield. However, they must also prepare for potential price drops due to higher supply.

  • Traders and Investors: The shifts in global supply and demand provide trading opportunities, particularly in commodities with significant changes in stock levels or production forecasts. Diversifying portfolios to include commodities with expected price increases or stable markets could be beneficial.

  • Policymakers and Economic Planners: Ensuring stability in local markets despite global fluctuations will be crucial. Policies aimed at supporting domestic agriculture during times of excess global supply could help mitigate adverse effects on local farmers.

Conclusion

The July WASDE report paints a complex picture of the global agricultural landscape, characterized by increased production and varying market dynamics across different commodities. Stakeholders across the spectrum, from farmers to policymakers, must stay informed and agile to navigate these changes effectively. As always, the key to success in agriculture lies in strategic planning and adaptability to ever-changing market conditions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0724.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

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272 pips potential profit in 22 seconds on 12 July 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURSEK first on Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis EURSEK moved 272 pips on Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 July 2024.

EURSEK (272 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Latest CPI Figures: A Deep Dive into Sweden's Inflation Trends as of June 2024

Inflation is a crucial economic indicator that affects everyone—from policymakers to the average consumer. The most recent data from Statistics Sweden provides us with a comprehensive look into the current state of inflation in Sweden as of June 2024, revealing a complex picture of the economy.

A Closer Look at June's CPI Figures

As of June 2024, the inflation rate according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.6%, a noticeable decline from the 3.7% recorded in May. This marks the lowest inflation rate since September 2021, indicating a significant easing of price pressures. The decrease on a month-to-month basis was -0.1% from May to June, further highlighting this trend of deceleration in price increases.

The Consumer Price Index with a fixed interest rate (CPIF), another key measure, registered an inflation rate of just 1.3% for the same period, which differs from the CPI by excluding the direct effects of changes in interest rates.

Significant Factors Influencing the CPI

Several categories had notable impacts on the CPI figures for June:

  • Electricity and Fuel: There has been a year-long decrease in electricity and fuel prices, which has played a substantial role in moderating the overall inflation rate.

  • Housing and Interest Rates: Housing costs continued to rise, influenced heavily by increasing mortgage costs and higher fees for rented and tenant-owned apartments. This was partly offset by the declining electricity prices compared to last year.

  • Package Holidays: Prices for package holidays surged in June, showing a significant seasonal increase of 29.0% from May, contributing a 0.2 percentage point increase to the CPI.

Price Base Amount Adjustment

Looking ahead, the price base amount, which is a key reference for various forms of social benefits and taxes in Sweden, has been set at SEK 58,800 for 2025. This represents an increase of SEK 1,500 from the previous year, which will impact financial planning for both individuals and businesses.

New Developments in Inflation Measurement

An exciting development is the introduction of the "CPI flash estimate" by Statistics Sweden, set to begin this autumn. This new measure will provide preliminary inflation figures five working days before the regular publication, offering a quicker snapshot of economic trends.

Implications for Policy and Everyday Life

These inflation figures are more than just numbers; they have real-world implications for monetary policy, wage negotiations, and cost of living adjustments. Lower inflation may suggest less pressure on households in terms of rising costs, but it also poses challenges for policymakers in stimulating economic growth.

For consumers, understanding these trends helps in making informed decisions about savings, investments, and spending. For businesses, particularly those in sectors directly affected by these changes like energy, housing, and tourism, these trends can influence pricing strategies and financial planning.

Looking Forward

As we anticipate the next release on August 14, 2024, it will be interesting to see if these trends hold steady or if new factors will emerge that could lead to changes in the inflation landscape. Keeping an eye on these developments is crucial for anyone involved in economic planning and decision-making in Sweden.

In summary, while the decrease in inflation as of June 2024 provides a temporary relief, the diverse factors at play suggest a complex economic environment that requires careful monitoring and analysis.

Source: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/prices-and-consumption/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-cpi/pong/statistical-news/consumer-price-index-cpi-june-2024/

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32 pips potential profit in 69 seconds on 11 July 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 32 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 July 2024.

USDJPY (12 pips)

EURUSD (20 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Navigating the Economic Waves: A Deep Dive into the June 2024 Consumer Price Index Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June 2024, revealing a nuanced snapshot of the current economic environment. The report, which saw a slight decline of 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, offers valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of consumer prices in the U.S. economy.

Key Highlights of the June 2024 CPI Report

The all items index, which measures a broad spectrum of consumer goods and services, rose by 3.0 percent over the last 12 months. This increment, though modest, indicates a slowdown from the 3.3 percent increase observed at the end of May 2024. Here's a closer look at some specific segments:

  • Energy: The index for gasoline plummeted by 3.8 percent in June, mirroring a similar drop in May. This continued decline significantly contributed to the overall decrease in the energy index, which also fell by 2.0 percent over the month.

  • Food: Contrary to the energy sector, food prices saw a slight increase. The overall food index rose by 0.2 percent, with the food away from home index up by 0.4 percent. This indicates sustained demand and perhaps a bit of resilience in the food sector despite broader economic conditions.

  • Core Inflation: When stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI (all items less food and energy) inched up by 0.1 percent in June. Notably, this represents the smallest monthly increase since August 2021, signaling a potential cooling of underlying inflationary pressures.

Sector-Specific Analysis

The shelter index continues to be a significant driver of the core inflation, despite only increasing by 0.2 percent in June. This subtle rise is the smallest since August 2021, potentially indicating a cooling in the housing market. Meanwhile, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings, and personal care all rose, underscoring that some areas of the economy are still experiencing upward price pressures.

Transportation services saw some of the most substantial fluctuations, particularly airline fares, which tumbled by 5.0 percent in June after a 3.6-percent decline in May. This drop could be reflecting seasonal adjustments or broader changes in consumer travel behavior.

Economic Implications and Consumer Impact

The latest CPI data suggests a mixed bag of economic signals. While the decline in energy prices can offer some relief to consumers, the rise in food and shelter costs could offset these benefits. Additionally, the modest rise in core CPI indicates that while inflationary pressures may be cooling, they remain present, affecting the cost of living and potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

For consumers, understanding these trends is crucial. Those planning budgets or major purchases will find it beneficial to track such indices closely, as they directly impact everyday expenses. On a broader scale, these trends also provide insight into the health of the U.S. economy, offering clues about potential future actions by policymakers, such as interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

Looking Ahead

As we move into the second half of 2024, all eyes will be on the upcoming July CPI report, due for release on August 14. Will the trend of modest increases continue, or will we see a reversal in certain sectors? Only time will tell, but for now, consumers and economists alike should remain vigilant, monitoring these indicators closely as they navigate the complex landscape of the U.S. economy.

In conclusion, the June 2024 CPI report paints a picture of an economy experiencing varied sectoral dynamics, highlighting the importance of nuanced analysis in understanding the overall economic health and making informed decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

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285 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in June 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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285 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in June 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 285 pips / ticks profit out of the following 5 events in June 2024. The potential performance in 2023 was 13,607 pips / ticks.

June 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance June 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 4 minutes! (preparation time not included)

Unpacking the Recent Economic Data: A Glimpse into June 2024's Key Economic Indicators

June 2024 has been a bustling month for economic data, with significant releases affecting market movements and investor sentiments across the globe. From the U.S. job market's vitality to inflation rates both domestically and in Sweden, the figures provide crucial insights. Let's delve into these economic indicators and their implications.

1. DOE Natural Gas Storage Report - 40 ticks (6 June 2024)

The Department of Energy's latest Natural Gas Storage Report revealed a 40-tick movement, indicating changes in natural gas inventory levels. Such fluctuations can significantly influence energy prices and hint at broader economic activity levels, especially in industries reliant on energy consumption. This movement suggests variations in supply and demand dynamics, possibly influenced by seasonal changes or shifts in industrial production.

2. U.S. Employment Situation - 58 pips (7 June 2024)

The Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) showed a movement of 58 pips, which is a critical indicator of economic health. The employment data suggests robust job growth or contraction, which can influence consumer spending and overall economic momentum. A positive report typically strengthens the USD, as it points to a bustling economy, possibly guiding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding interest rates.

3. U.S. BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) - 62 pips (12 June 2024)

June's CPI movement of 62 pips underscores ongoing concerns or relief regarding inflation. As the primary gauge of inflation, CPI data impacts everything from monetary policy to individual purchasing power. This movement indicates that consumer prices are on the move, which could either signal strengthening economic activity or rising inflation concerns, influencing the Fed's outlook on the economy.

4. U.S. Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) - 44 pips (13 June 2024)

The simultaneous release of jobless claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a collective pip movement of 44. These metrics offer a dual view: jobless claims point to the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits, a direct measure of job market health, while PPI provides insight into the cost pressures faced by producers which can feed into consumer prices. Together, they provide a nuanced view of economic resilience or vulnerability.

5. Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) - 81 pips (14 June 2024)

Sweden's CPI moving by 81 pips is particularly noteworthy, as it suggests significant inflationary pressures or deflationary trends in the Swedish economy. Given Sweden's role in the European economic landscape, these figures can have broader implications for the European Central Bank's policy decisions and the overall economic climate in the region.

Conclusion

June 2024's economic data presents a mixed bag of insights, reflecting the complexities of the current global economic environment. Each data release not only affects domestic markets but also has broader implications for global trade, monetary policy, and investment decisions. As we move forward, it will be crucial for investors, policymakers, and the public to keep a close eye on these indicators to gauge the trajectory of economic recovery or downturn. Stay tuned for further analysis as more data becomes available and continue to navigate these challenging yet interesting times with informed perspectives.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

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81 pips potential profit in 21 seconds on 14 June 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURSEK first on Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis EURSEK moved 81 pips on Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 14 June 2024.

EURSEK (81 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing Sweden's May 2024 Inflation Rates: A Deep Dive

In May 2024, Sweden observed a notable shift in its inflation dynamics, as reported by Statistics Sweden. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed an inflation rate of 3.7%, a slight decrease from April’s 3.9%. This change, along with other variations in price indices, provides a multifaceted view of the current economic landscape in Sweden.

Overview of May 2024 Inflation Figures

The CPI rose by 0.2% from April to May 2024, consistent with the trend from the previous year. The annual change in the CPI was 3.7%, signaling a minor decrease from April. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate (CPIF), which is often a target variable for the Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, remained stable at 2.3%. An intriguing measure, the CPIF excluding energy (CPIF-XE), ticked up slightly to 3.0% from April's 2.9%, reflecting rising costs outside of the volatile energy sector.

What’s Driving the Changes?

A primary factor contributing to the decline in overall inflation was a significant drop in electricity prices, which decreased by 13.3% on a monthly basis, resulting in a -0.5 percentage point contribution to the CPI. This was enough to offset increases in various service sectors such as transport and accommodation, which have seen higher consumer prices.

Transport services, for instance, increased by 6.0%, influenced by costlier car rentals and air travel, while package holidays and hotel visits surged by 19.7% and 11.2% respectively. The food sector also saw an uptick, contributing positively to the inflation figures.

Sector-Specific Insights

The housing sector played a significant role in shaping the inflation landscape. Increased mortgage costs alone contributed 1.6 percentage points to the CPI's annual change, a slight decrease from April’s contribution of 1.8 percentage points. Additionally, rent and tenant-owned apartment fees also saw increases, contributing further to the housing inflation.

Interestingly, even as the CPI reflected changes influenced by mortgage rate shifts, the CPIF, which excludes these effects, presented a different picture of inflation, one possibly more indicative of underlying economic pressures without the noise of monetary policy changes.

Looking Forward: CPI Flash Estimate

A new development from Statistics Sweden is the introduction of the CPI flash estimate, which will start publishing this autumn. This preliminary figure will provide an early snapshot of inflation trends, aiding policymakers and economists in their assessments. It will include the CPI, CPIF, and CPIF-XE, offering a broader view of inflation just five days before the regular publication.

Conclusion

The May 2024 inflation data reveals a complex picture of Sweden's economic conditions. Lower electricity and fuel prices have provided some relief to consumers, but rising costs in services and housing continue to exert upward pressure on the overall inflation rate. As Sweden moves into the second half of 2024, all eyes will be on these trends to gauge the potential directions of monetary policy and economic health. Stay tuned for more updates, especially with the impending launch of the CPI flash estimate, which promises to add a new layer of insight into Sweden's inflation analysis.

Source: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/prices-and-consumption/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-cpi/pong/statistical-news/consumer-price-index-cpi-may-2024/

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44 pips potential profit in 42 seconds on 13 June 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 44 pips on US Jobless Claims and US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 13 June 2024.

USDJPY (29 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the Dip: A Closer Look at the May 2024 Producer Price Index Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May 2024 presents some intriguing shifts in the economic landscape. The report, detailing the movements in prices from a producer's perspective, shows a decline in final demand by 0.2 percent. This is particularly notable following a 0.5 percent increase in April and a slight decrease in March. Over the past 12 months, however, the index for final demand has advanced 2.2 percent on an unadjusted basis.

Key Highlights from the May 2024 PPI Report

Decline in Final Demand Goods: The report indicates a significant 0.8 percent drop in final demand goods, marking the largest decline since October 2023. A major contributor to this decrease was the energy sector, which plummeted by 4.8 percent. This sharp decline in energy prices, particularly a 7.1-percent decrease in gasoline prices, heavily influenced the overall drop in goods prices.

Stability in Services: In contrast to goods, prices for final demand services remained unchanged in May, after a rise in the previous month. Within the services category, trade services and services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing saw minor increases of 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. However, transportation and warehousing services experienced a notable drop of 1.4 percent.

Intermediate Demand: Intermediate demand also saw significant shifts, with processed goods for intermediate demand falling by 1.5 percent, driven largely by an 8.0 percent decline in processed energy goods. On the other hand, unprocessed goods for intermediate demand declined by 1.8 percent, largely due to a 6.6 percent drop in unprocessed energy materials.

Economic Implications

The decline in the PPI for May underscores several key economic trends and potential implications:

  1. Energy Sector Volatility: The substantial decrease in energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, suggests volatility in the energy sector, which could be due to fluctuating global oil prices or changes in domestic production and inventory levels.

  2. Inflationary Pressures: While final demand goods prices have fallen, the unchanged prices in services indicate sustained demand and potentially ongoing inflationary pressures in parts of the economy not directly impacted by energy costs.

  3. Sector-Specific Impacts: The mixed performance across different sectors highlights the uneven recovery and challenges facing various industries. For example, while the food and alcohol retailing segments saw price increases, airline services and machinery and vehicle wholesaling faced declines.

Looking Ahead

As businesses and policymakers digest these figures, the PPI provides crucial insights into the pressures faced by producers which can eventually trickle down to consumer prices. The stability in services despite the drop in goods prices may cushion the overall economic impact in the short term. However, the ongoing volatility in energy prices remains a wild card that could influence future economic conditions.

In conclusion, the May PPI report serves as a vital barometer for economic health, offering a glimpse into the dynamics affecting producers that could shape policy decisions and market strategies in the coming months. With the next PPI release scheduled for July 12, 2024, all eyes will be on whether these trends continue, stabilize, or reverse, setting the stage for mid-year economic forecasts.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

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62 pips potential profit in 45 seconds on 12 June 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 62 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 June 2024.

USDJPY (37 pips)

EURUSD (25 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Consumer Price Index for May 2024: Insights and Implications

The recent release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May 2024 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics offers a detailed glimpse into the economic trends and consumer pricing landscape. Notably, the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) remained unchanged in May, after a modest increase of 0.3 percent in April. Over the past 12 months, the overall index has seen an increase of 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Key Highlights from the May 2024 CPI Data:

  • Stable Consumer Prices: The overall stability in the CPI-U in May contrasts with the previous month's rise, reflecting a balance between sectors where prices increased and those that saw declines.

  • Shelter Costs Continue to Climb: The shelter index rose by 0.4 percent, maintaining the same growth rate for four consecutive months, which indicates a persistent upward pressure on housing costs.

  • Divergence in Food Prices: While the overall food index nudged up by 0.1 percent, significant variation was observed within this category. The food away from home index increased by 0.4 percent, in contrast to the unchanged status of the food at home index.

  • Decrease in Energy Prices: The energy index decreased by 2.0 percent in May, driven by a substantial 3.6 percent drop in the gasoline index. This decline helped offset some of the rising costs in other areas.

Detailed Analysis:

  1. Sector-Specific Trends:

    • Energy: The sharp decline in gasoline prices significantly impacted the energy sector, which saw an overall decline despite previous increases. This decrease in energy costs, while beneficial in curbing overall inflation, raises questions about the volatility in energy markets.

    • Food: The modest increase in the food index is reflective of a relatively stable food pricing environment, although variations exist between dining out and eating at home, with the former experiencing higher inflation.

    • Healthcare and Education: Both sectors saw increases, with medical care rising by 0.5 percent in May and education by 0.4 percent, indicating ongoing cost pressures in these essential services.

  2. Economic Implications:

    • The stability in the CPI indicates a balancing act between rising and falling sectors, suggesting that while certain costs continue to rise, overall inflation pressures are being moderated by declines in other areas like energy.

    • The persistent increase in shelter costs is a concern for long-term affordability and living standards, particularly in urban areas where CPI measurements are most applicable.

  3. What to Watch:

    • Future Energy Prices: Given the volatility in the energy sector, future reports should be closely monitored to gauge whether May’s decrease in energy prices is a temporary dip or the start of a longer-term trend.

    • Food and Shelter Costs: As these are significant components of the CPI and directly impact consumer budgets, ongoing increases could pose challenges for consumer spending power.

Conclusion:

The May 2024 CPI report highlights the complex interplay of various economic factors influencing consumer prices. With the index for all items less food and energy rising modestly, it’s crucial for policymakers and consumers alike to monitor these trends closely, particularly as they relate to the cost of living and inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, the next CPI release scheduled for July will provide further insights into whether these trends are solidifying, offering a clearer picture of the economic direction in the second half of 2024. For now, consumers and analysts alike would do well to keep an eye on the evolving economic landscape, especially in sectors like energy, food, and housing, which are crucial to everyday financial planning and policy formulation.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

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1932 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 20 events in the first quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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1932 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 20 events in the first quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 1932 pips/ticks profit out of the following 20 events in the first quarter of 2024 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2023 was 13,607 pips/ticks.

Q1 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q1 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 20 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

Understanding Market Movements: Key Economic Reports from Early 2024

In the world of finance, market movements are significantly driven by economic reports that reflect the underlying health and trends within an economy. Over the first quarter of 2024, several key reports have had noticeable impacts on financial markets. Let's delve into some of these critical economic indicators and their implications.

January 2024: A Busy Start to the Year

The year kicked off with several high-profile reports, starting with the US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) on January 3, which led to a 28 pip movement in the forex markets. This report often provides insights into the labor market's dynamics beyond simple unemployment figures, reflecting how businesses are responding to economic conditions through hiring or layoffs.

Shortly thereafter, the US Employment Situation Report (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) on January 5 showed a 74 pip movement. Non-farm payrolls are a crucial metric for assessing new jobs created in the US, excluding agricultural employment, and often guide the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

Mid-January featured the USDA WASDE and USDA Grain Stocks reports, which shifted commodity markets by 48 ticks, highlighting the sensitivity of agricultural markets to supply and demand insights.

The month closed with the US GDP report on January 25, moving markets by 48 pips. GDP growth rate is a broad measure of economic activity and health, influencing investor sentiment and policy decisions.

February 2024: Continued Economic Insights

In February, attention remained on the labor market with the US Employment Situation Report on the 2nd, causing a significant 95 pip movement. Following this, other reports like the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook and Retail Sales on February 15, and the Sweden Consumer Price Index on February 19, which moved by 35 and 51 pips respectively, provided insights into economic conditions in different sectors and regions.

March 2024: Diverse Global Indicators

March brought a variety of reports from different countries. Notably, the Turkey interest rate decision on March 21 led to a dramatic 1186 pip movement, underscoring the volatile economic conditions and investor sensitivity in emerging markets.

In the US, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook on March 21 and the Consumer Price Index on March 12, which moved the market by 12 and 20 pips respectively, continued to paint a picture of the economic landscape. Manufacturing and inflation are key areas watched by investors for signs of economic overheating or undercooling.

Implications for Investors and Policymakers

These economic reports are essential for investors trying to predict future market movements and for policymakers aiming to adjust economic policy effectively. High volatility in response to such reports indicates investor sensitivity to new information, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in asset prices as new data becomes available.

Conclusion

The early months of 2024 have provided a plethora of data, from labor market conditions and manufacturing sentiment to inflation rates and GDP growth, each influencing market dynamics in significant ways. As we move forward, understanding these indicators will be crucial for navigating the financial landscape, making informed investment decisions, and anticipating future economic policies.

For investors and market watchers, keeping an eye on these reports will be vital for staying ahead in the fast-paced world of finance. As always, a nuanced understanding of these indicators, combined with a strategic approach to market analysis, will be key to achieving success in the turbulent waters of financial markets.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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58 pips potential profit in 39 seconds on 7 June 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 58 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 7 June 2024.

USDJPY (38 pips)

EURUSD (20 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the May 2024 U.S. Employment Report: Trends and Implications

The latest Employment Situation Summary released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides an insightful glimpse into the current state of the nation's job market as of May 2024. A robust addition of 272,000 jobs indicates continuing growth across multiple sectors, maintaining a stable unemployment rate of 4.0 percent. This post delves into the details of the report, highlighting key trends and what they might mean for the economy and job seekers.

Key Highlights from the May 2024 Report

  • Continued Growth in Key Sectors: The health care, government, leisure and hospitality, and professional, scientific, and technical services sectors led job additions for the month. Notably, health care saw an addition of 68,000 jobs, aligning with its average monthly gain, signaling ongoing robust demand in this sector.

  • Stable Unemployment Rates: The unemployment rate held steady at 4.0 percent, with little change across major worker groups. Adult men and women posted unemployment rates of 3.8 percent and 3.4 percent respectively, while the unemployment rate for teenagers was significantly higher at 12.3 percent.

  • Part-Time and Marginal Attachments: Approximately 4.4 million individuals were employed part-time for economic reasons, unchanged from the previous month. Additionally, 1.5 million people were marginally attached to the labor force, including 462,000 discouraged workers who believe no jobs are available for them.

Economic Trends and Labor Market Dynamics

The stability in unemployment rates combined with significant job growth in sectors like health care and technical services suggests a maturing recovery phase as the economy rebounds from previous disruptions. The consistency in sectors like health care underscores the critical demand for healthcare services, possibly driven by an aging population and greater health consciousness post-pandemic.

Government job increases also reflect ongoing public sector investments, which often provide a stabilizing effect on employment during economic fluctuations. Meanwhile, the leisure and hospitality sector's recovery is indicative of restored consumer confidence and spending levels.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the overall positive outlook, there remain areas of concern, such as the high unemployment rate among teenagers and the substantial number of individuals working part-time due to economic conditions. These issues highlight the need for targeted policy interventions, such as improved job training and education programs, especially for younger workers.

The slight increase in discouraged workers also suggests that some segments of the population are not feeling the benefits of economic recovery, possibly due to skills mismatches or geographic disparities in job availability.

Forward Outlook

Looking ahead, the labor market appears to be on a stable trajectory, but with some areas needing attention to ensure broader participation and benefits from economic growth. Employers and policymakers alike should focus on inclusive growth strategies that address the needs of the most vulnerable populations.

The next Employment Situation Summary, slated for release in early July, will be closely watched for signs of whether these trends continue, especially in terms of wage growth and labor force participation rates.

Overall, the May 2024 employment report paints a picture of a resilient U.S. job market, with ongoing opportunities tempered by challenges that need to be managed to sustain long-term economic health.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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