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77 pips potential profit in 97 seconds on 3 May 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 77 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 3 May 2024.

USDJPY (51 pips)

EURUSD (26 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the April 2024 Employment Situation Summary

The latest Employment Situation Summary released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a mixed bag of insights into the state of the American job market as of April 2024. Total nonfarm payroll employment saw an increase of 175,000 jobs last month, which is notably lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 over the previous year. This deceleration in job growth may signal a more cautious approach by businesses amidst various economic pressures. However, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.9%, suggesting a still robust labor market.

Sector-Specific Highlights

Health Care: The health care sector continued to show strong performance with 56,000 new jobs added in April. This sector's resilience is critical as it aligns with ongoing demands in health services, especially in ambulatory health care services and hospitals.

Social Assistance: This sector also saw significant growth, adding 31,000 jobs, indicating ongoing needs in community and social services. The consistent job additions in social assistance reflect the growing societal emphasis on supportive services.

Transportation and Warehousing: With a 22,000 job increase, this sector shows a modest rebound, likely driven by the ongoing shifts in consumer delivery preferences and supply chain adjustments.

Retail Trade: Notably, the retail trade has picked up momentum with a 20,000 increase in jobs, led by gains in general merchandise and building material stores. This could be an indicator of consumer confidence and spending.

Challenges and Steady Sectors

Despite these positive trends, certain sectors like construction and government showed only slight changes in employment numbers. The construction sector's small gain of 9,000 jobs suggests a slowdown possibly linked to material costs or interest rate concerns. Government employment also showed minimal change, indicating a potential plateau in public sector hiring.

Economic Indicators and Wage Analysis

A key takeaway from the report is the slight increase in average hourly earnings, up 7 cents to $34.75, representing a 3.9% increase year-over-year. This gradual wage growth indicates ongoing adjustments to inflationary pressures but could also point to cautious employer spending in salary increments.

The average workweek slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours, a subtle sign that businesses might be adjusting labor hours to manage costs or productivity demands.

Looking Ahead

As we move forward, the labor market appears to be balancing cautious employer behavior with steady consumer activity. The sectors showing growth highlight areas of economic strength, while the overall slowdown in job additions could suggest a market awaiting clearer economic signals.

For policymakers and business leaders, these insights provide a nuanced perspective on workforce dynamics as they plan for potential economic shifts. For workers, the steady yet selective growth in sectors may influence decisions on skill development and job opportunities.

As we look to the next Employment Situation Summary due in June, all eyes will be on whether these trends hold steady or if new economic factors will emerge, influencing job market trajectories in mid-2024.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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384 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 12 events in April 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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384 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 12 events in April 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 384 pips / ticks profit out of the following 12 events in April 2024. The potential performance in 2023 was 13,607 pips / ticks.

April 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance April 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 12 minutes! (preparation time not included)

Economic Reports: A Snapshot of April 2024's Influence on Financial Markets

April 2024 was a bustling month for financial markets, with numerous key economic reports released globally that influenced trading behaviors and investor sentiment. In this post, we'll delve into some of the most significant reports and their impact on market fluctuations, measured in ticks and pips.

Natural Gas Storage and Petroleum Status in the US

The Department of Energy's (DOE) Natural Gas Storage Reports from April 4 and April 11 showed fluctuations of 10 and 21 ticks, respectively. These reports often influence natural gas prices which in turn impact energy stocks and ETFs. On a related note, the DOE Petroleum Status Report on April 10 also sparked a movement of 38 ticks, reflecting changes in crude oil inventories that typically sway energy markets significantly.

Canadian and Swedish Labour Markets

The Labour Force Surveys from Canada and Sweden, released on April 5 and April 24 respectively, revealed interesting labor market dynamics. Canada's report moved the market by 46 pips, while Sweden's had a more pronounced effect with a 67 pip movement. These movements highlight the sensitivity of currency markets to employment trends, as they often signal economic health and influence central bank policies.

US Economic Health through CPI and PPI

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) on April 10 and April 11, leading to movements of 57 and 35 pips, respectively. The CPI is a primary gauge of inflation, while the PPI provides insight into the inflationary pressures at the producer level. Both are crucial indicators for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, affecting the dollar's strength and bond yields.

Retail Sales and Manufacturing Insights

US Retail Sales on April 15 saw a movement of 39 pips, reflecting consumer spending health, a key component of economic growth. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, moving by 20 pips on April 18, provided insights into the manufacturing sector's conditions, influencing equities in related sectors.

Gross Domestic Product Reports

The US and Canada released their GDP reports on April 25 and April 30, with market movements of 18 and 20 pips, respectively. GDP reports are pivotal as they summarize overall economic activity and health, influencing a wide array of investment decisions and policy considerations.

Conclusion

Each report in April 2024 painted part of a larger economic picture, influencing market dynamics in various sectors. For traders and investors, understanding these reports and their impacts is crucial for making informed decisions. As we look ahead, it will be interesting to see how these trends develop and what new data will shape the financial landscape.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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20 pips potential profit in 61 seconds on 30 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDCAD on Canada GDP data

According to our analysis USDCAD moved 20 pips on Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 30 April 2024.

USDCAD (20 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the Nuances of Canada's GDP Growth in February 2024

In February 2024, Canada's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) witnessed a modest increase of 0.2%, maintaining a stable yet slower growth compared to the 0.5% rise observed in January. This growth was primarily driven by the services-producing industries, with notable performances in transportation and warehousing sectors.

Sectoral Highlights of February's GDP Growth

Transportation and Warehousing Take the Lead

The transportation and warehousing sector showcased a significant growth of 1.4%, marking the largest monthly growth rate since January 2023. A notable rebound in rail transportation, which surged by 5.5%, played a critical role in this expansion. The uplift in rail activities came as operations normalized following the harsh weather conditions in Western Canada earlier in the year. Additionally, air transportation also saw a substantial increase of 4.8%, fueled by a rise in international travel, particularly to Asia around the Lunar New Year.

Utilities and Manufacturing Face Downturns

Contrasting the gains in transportation and warehousing, the utilities sector experienced a decline of 2.6%. This downturn is partly attributed to a decrease in demand for heating following a particularly cold January. Similarly, the manufacturing sector faced challenges, declining by 0.4%, with significant setbacks in transportation equipment manufacturing due to ongoing retooling shutdowns.

Mining and Oil & Gas Sectors Bounce Back

The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector witnessed a growth of 2.5%, effectively recuperating from a 2.3% drop in January. This recovery was led by a 3.3% increase in oil and gas extraction, excluding oil sands, which saw growth across various production types. This sector's rebound underscores its volatile nature and susceptibility to external conditions, such as weather impacts on operational capabilities.

Public Sector and Financial Services Show Steady Growth

The public sector continued to grow, although at a slower pace of 0.2%, with educational services and healthcare contributing modestly. Meanwhile, the finance and insurance sector recorded a 0.3% increase, marking its third consecutive month of growth, driven by robust activities in financial investment services.

Looking Forward: Preliminary Estimates for March 2024

Preliminary data for March 2024 suggests that the real GDP remained largely unchanged, with gains in utilities and real estate being offset by declines in manufacturing and retail trade. This points to a mixed economic landscape where certain sectors are expanding while others retract, reflecting the complex interplay of domestic and global economic factors.

Conclusion

As we await the official first-quarter GDP figures due for release on May 31, 2024, it's clear that Canada's economy is experiencing a period of cautious optimism mixed with sector-specific challenges. The ongoing fluctuations across different industries highlight the need for businesses and policymakers to remain adaptable and responsive to changing economic conditions. This nuanced picture of Canada's economic health offers valuable insights into the resilience and vulnerabilities within its diverse sectors.

Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240430/dq240430a-eng.htm

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18 pips potential profit in 8 seconds on 25 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 18 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 25 April 2024.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (8 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the First Quarter GDP Growth of 2024

The U.S. economy started 2024 with a more moderate growth pace, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its advance estimate showing a 1.6% annual growth rate in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. This figure marks a slowdown from the 3.4% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023, hinting at a mixed economic landscape as the year unfolds.

Key Drivers of Growth

The modest growth in GDP this quarter was primarily driven by increased consumer spending, especially on services like healthcare and financial services. This was supplemented by gains in residential fixed investment and nonresidential fixed investment, as well as heightened activity in state and local government spending. However, these positive contributions were somewhat offset by a decline in private inventory investment and an increase in imports, which act as a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.

Among the standout sectors, the report highlighted a notable increase in intellectual property products and a surge in compensation for state and local government employees. On the downside, the automotive and energy sectors experienced declines, pulling the goods segment down despite the broader gains in services.

Economic Deceleration Points

The deceleration in GDP growth from the previous quarter can be attributed to slower consumer spending, a dip in federal government spending, and a decrease in exports. Although residential fixed investment showed acceleration, it wasn't enough to fully counterbalance the slowdowns elsewhere.

Inflation and Income Trends

Inflation indicators from the first quarter reveal a continued pressure on prices, with the price index for gross domestic purchases rising to 3.1% from 1.9% in the prior quarter. Similarly, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index climbed to 3.4%, up from 1.8%. These figures suggest an uptick in inflationary pressures, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

On the income front, current-dollar personal income saw a substantial increase of $407.1 billion, a significant rise compared to the $230.2 billion increase in the previous quarter. This boost in personal income was largely fueled by rises in compensation and personal current transfer receipts. However, the personal saving rate dipped to 3.6% from 4.0%, indicating that despite higher incomes, savings were lower—perhaps a reflection of increased consumer confidence or rising costs.

Looking Ahead

While the first quarter GDP report shows growth, the mix of accelerating and decelerating factors across different sectors paints a complex picture of the U.S. economy. The forthcoming "second" GDP estimate due on May 30, 2024, will provide a clearer view as it will include more complete data.

Investors, policymakers, and analysts will be watching closely to see if these trends hold, particularly with regard to inflation and how it might shape responses from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, individuals will feel the impact of these economic shifts in their daily lives, from employment prospects to purchasing power.

In summary, the first quarter of 2024 has set the stage for a year that could be marked by careful balancing acts in economic policy and personal finance management, amidst a landscape of gradual growth and shifting investment dynamics.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

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13 pips potential profit in 90 seconds on 24 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDCAD on Canada Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDCAD moved 13 pips on Canada Retail Sales data on 24 April 2024.

USDCAD (13 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Canadian Retail Sales Slightly Dip in February 2024

In February 2024, Canadian retail sales experienced a marginal decline, edging down 0.1% to $66.7 billion. This subtle decrease reflects a challenging month for several key subsectors, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada.

Subsector Performance

The decrease in retail sales was primarily led by a 2.2% drop at gasoline stations and fuel vendors. This sector also saw a significant reduction in volume terms, with sales decreasing by 3.9%. Despite the overall dip, not all areas experienced declines. The motor vehicle and parts dealers subsector, for example, saw an increase of 0.5%. Within this group, other motor vehicle dealers reported a robust growth of 5.1%, with new car dealers also up by 0.3%.

Core Retail Sales Hold Steady

Interestingly, when excluding gasoline stations and fuel vendors as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers, core retail sales remained unchanged from January. This stability is noteworthy, considering the fluctuations seen in specific subsectors. General merchandise retailers reported a rise of 1.1%, while health and personal care stores saw a smaller increase of 0.4%.

However, these gains were offset by decreases in other areas, including a 1.5% fall in sales at furniture, home furnishings, electronics, and appliance retailers. Clothing and related products retailers also faced challenges, with sales decreasing by 1.0%.

Regional Insights

Provincially, sales trends varied. Alberta witnessed the largest decline with a 1.1% decrease, primarily driven by lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. In contrast, British Columbia recorded the largest increase, with sales rising by 1.2%, led by the same subsector.

In Ontario, a modest decrease of 0.2% was observed, with lower sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors contributing to this trend. The Toronto metropolitan area experienced a more pronounced decrease of 2.3%.

E-commerce Continues to Grow

Retail e-commerce sales presented a brighter spot in February's retail landscape. On a seasonally adjusted basis, e-commerce sales climbed 1.9% to $3.8 billion, now representing 5.7% of total retail trade. This marks a slight increase from the 5.6% share observed in January, suggesting a continued shift towards online shopping among Canadian consumers.

Looking Ahead

Providing a glimpse into the future, Statistics Canada's advance retail indicator suggests that retail sales remained stable in March. This estimate, based on responses from 61.9% of companies surveyed, will be revised as more data becomes available. However, it offers a preliminary sign that the retail sector might be steadying after a fluctuating start to the year.

In conclusion, while the overall decrease in retail sales for February was slight, the varied performance across different sectors and regions highlights the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the Canadian retail landscape. As businesses continue to adapt to shifting consumer preferences and economic conditions, the coming months will be critical in shaping the trajectory of the retail sector in 2024.

Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240424/dq240424a-eng.htm

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67 pips potential profit in 89 seconds on 24 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURSEK first on Sweden Labour Force (LFS) data

According to our analysis EURSEK moved 67 pips on Sweden Labour Force Survey (LFS) data on 24 April 2024.

EURSEK (67 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Unpacking the March 2024 Labour Force Survey: A Detailed Analysis of Sweden's Employment Landscape

In March 2024, Sweden's labour market faced some challenging shifts, as indicated by the latest data from Statistics Sweden. The figures paint a nuanced picture of the employment sector, marked notably by an increase in unemployment rates, particularly among women and young people. Here, we delve into the key insights from the March 2024 Labour Force Surveys (LFS) to understand the implications and trends shaping Sweden's workforce.

Rising Unemployment Rates

The latest data reveals a concerning uptick in the number of unemployed people, increasing by 86,000 to a total of 525,000. This jump has pushed the unemployment rate to 9.2%, a significant rise of 1.5 percentage points. Notably, the impact has been more pronounced among specific demographics, including women and the youth, where unemployment rates have surged even higher. The figures reflect broader economic pressures and potential shifts in industry demands.

Employment and Labour Force Participation

Despite the rise in unemployment, the total number of people employed stands at 5,188,000. However, when dissected further, the data shows disparities in employment rates between genders. Men have a higher employment rate of 70.8%, compared to 65.8% for women. The overall labour force participation has seen a slight improvement, with a 0.1 percentage point increase to 75.4%, suggesting a larger number of individuals are either employed or actively seeking work.

Trends in Permanent and Temporary Employment

The composition of the workforce has also seen shifts, particularly in the types of employment people are engaging in. There has been a noticeable decrease in temporary employment, dropping by 74,000 from the previous year, which could indicate a move towards more stable employment conditions or perhaps a cut in temporary job offerings. The number of permanent employees slightly increased, suggesting a potential stabilization in job security for many.

Youth Unemployment: A Growing Concern

One of the more alarming trends from the report is the sharp increase in youth unemployment. The rate for individuals aged 15-24 has escalated to 29.6%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points. This spike could be indicative of difficulties facing young entrants into the job market, possibly driven by a lack of suitable job opportunities or the competitive nature of entry-level positions.

Unused Labour Supply

Another critical aspect highlighted in the report is the unused labour supply, which averaged 24.6 million hours per week. This figure represents potential productivity that is not being utilized in the economy, equivalent to 615,000 full-time positions. This underutilization could suggest mismatches in the job market where the skills of the labour force are not aligning with the demands of available jobs.

Looking Ahead

The March 2024 LFS data gives us important insights into the current state and challenges of the Swedish labour market. It's evident that certain groups are facing more significant hurdles, with increases in unemployment rates particularly impacting women and young people. As we look to the future, these trends highlight the need for targeted policy interventions and support programs to help those most affected and to bridge the gap in unused labour potential.

For policymakers, understanding these dynamics is crucial to devising effective strategies to foster a more resilient and inclusive job market. For businesses, the shifting landscape presents both challenges in workforce planning and opportunities to innovate in how they recruit, train, and retain talent.

As we continue to navigate these turbulent times, staying informed and adaptive will be key to overcoming the challenges presented by the evolving employment landscape in Sweden.

Source: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/labour-market/labour-force-surveys/labour-force-surveys-lfs/pong/statistical-news/labour-force-surveys-lfs-march-2024/

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20 pips potential profit in 100 seconds on 18 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 20 pips on US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey data on 18 April 2024.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the April 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Key Insights and Implications

The April 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey provides valuable insights into the current state and future expectations of regional manufacturing activity. Collected from April 8 to April 15, the responses offer a comprehensive overview of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the sector.

Current Manufacturing Trends

In April, the survey highlights a continued expansion in manufacturing activity. Notably, the diffusion index for current general activity increased by 12 points to 15.5, marking its highest level since April 2022. This rise reflects improved sentiments among manufacturers, with approximately 38% of firms reporting increases in general activity. This positivity is further supported by gains in new orders and shipments, suggesting a robust demand and operational uptick.

Despite these positive signs, the employment index remained in the negative territory at -10.7, continuing a trend observed over the past 14 months. The decline indicates ongoing challenges in the labor market within manufacturing, with firms reporting a higher rate of employment decreases compared to increases. This aspect of the survey underscores a critical area of concern that could affect production capacity and growth prospects if prolonged.

Price Dynamics

Price indexes from the survey indicate sustained pressure on costs. The prices paid index soared to 23.0 in April from 3.7 in March, signaling that input costs remain a significant challenge. This increase is near the long-run average but reflects heightened cost conditions that could squeeze margins if not managed effectively. Concurrently, the prices received index modestly increased, suggesting that firms are somewhat able to pass these costs onto consumers, but not entirely.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, the survey’s future indicators, although slightly declined, still paint an optimistic picture for the next six months. The future general activity index, despite a drop, shows that a larger proportion of firms anticipate an increase in activity compared to those expecting a decrease. This optimism extends to projections for new orders and shipments, although at a moderated pace.

Interestingly, the future employment index saw an improvement, hinting at potential recovery in hiring intentions. This could be crucial in addressing the current employment declines and supporting anticipated increases in production.

Special Focus: Wages and Compensation

The survey included special questions about changes in wages and compensation. Over the past three months, 31.3% of firms reported increases in these costs, reflecting the broader inflationary pressures affecting the economy. Most firms have not adjusted their 2024 budgets for wages and compensation, indicating a wait-and-see approach in financial planning. However, a notable fraction of firms plan to increase wages more than initially planned, highlighting the competitive pressures to attract and retain talent amid a tight labor market.

Strategic Implications for Businesses

Manufacturing firms should remain vigilant of the ongoing cost pressures and labor market dynamics. Strategic planning should consider potential cost escalations and explore efficiencies in production processes. Additionally, firms must assess their workforce strategies to address the hiring challenges and plan for wage adjustments that align with market conditions and company performance.

Overall, the April 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic view of the manufacturing sector. While current conditions show improvement, the challenges in employment and rising costs are critical areas that require careful management to sustain growth and competitiveness in the evolving economic landscape.

Source: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2024-04

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39 pips potential profit in 69 seconds on 15 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 39 pips on US Retail Sales data on 15 April 2024.

USDJPY (28 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales Surge in March 2024: A Sign of Economic Resilience

In a promising turn of events for the U.S. economy, the latest figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau reveal a robust uptick in retail and food services sales for the month of March 2024. The advance estimates, adjusted for seasonal variation and other factors, paint a picture of resilience and growth despite ongoing global uncertainties.

According to the report, U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024 reached an impressive $709.6 billion, marking a 0.7 percent increase from the previous month. Even more encouraging is the year-over-year comparison, with sales up by 4.0 percent compared to March 2023. This steady growth trajectory suggests a buoyant consumer sentiment and a healthy appetite for spending.

Digging deeper into the numbers, it's evident that various sectors contributed to this positive trend. Retail trade sales, for instance, saw a notable 0.8 percent uptick from February 2024, signaling increased consumer activity across a range of goods and services. Nonstore retailers emerged as a standout performer, boasting an impressive 11.3 percent increase from the previous year. This surge in online shopping underscores the continued shift towards e-commerce platforms and highlights the importance of digital infrastructure in today's retail landscape.

Equally noteworthy is the resilience displayed by food services and drinking places, which saw a commendable 6.5 percent rise from March 2023. Despite challenges posed by the ongoing pandemic and fluctuating consumer preferences, the food and beverage industry has demonstrated remarkable adaptability and innovation, catering to evolving demands and ensuring customer satisfaction.

Moreover, the report provides insight into the broader economic trajectory, with total sales for the January 2024 through March 2024 period showing a 2.1 percent increase compared to the same period a year ago. This sustained growth over multiple months underscores the underlying strength of the U.S. economy and bodes well for future prospects.

It's worth noting the revised figures for the January 2024 to February 2024 percent change, which was adjusted upwards from 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent. This upward revision reflects a more optimistic outlook and reinforces the narrative of steady expansion in consumer spending.

Overall, the latest data on retail and food services sales in March 2024 paints a picture of resilience and optimism in the face of challenges. As the economy continues to recover and adapt to changing dynamics, these figures serve as a testament to the resilience of businesses and the enduring spirit of consumer confidence. With prudent policies and innovative strategies, the U.S. is well-positioned to navigate the road ahead and emerge stronger than ever before.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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21 ticks potential profit in 20 seconds on 11 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 21 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 11 April 2024.

Natural gas (21 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Latest Trends in Natural Gas Storage: Insights from the April 11, 2024 EIA Report

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has recently released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, providing data up to April 5, 2024. This crucial update gives us insights into the state of natural gas storage across the United States, reflecting changes over the past week and comparisons with historical data. Here’s a deep dive into what these numbers mean and their potential implications for the market and consumers.

Current Storage Levels and Weekly Changes

As of April 5, 2024, the total working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 states stood at 2,283 billion cubic feet (Bcf). This marks a net increase of 24 Bcf from the previous week. Notably, the current storage levels are significantly above last year's figures at this time, which were at 1,848 Bcf, and also surpass the five-year average of 1,650 Bcf. This indicates a robust increase in gas storage, suggesting a stronger storage position relative to previous years.

Regional Analysis

The report details specific changes in various regions:

  • East: A slight decrease of 1 Bcf, totaling 362 Bcf.

  • Midwest: An increase of 2 Bcf, reaching 512 Bcf.

  • Mountain: An increase of 3 Bcf, now at 165 Bcf.

  • Pacific: Also up by 2 Bcf, totaling 229 Bcf.

  • South Central: The largest increase observed here, with 18 Bcf added, now totaling 1,014 Bcf.

Each region shows different trends, but overall, the increases are contributing to a greater national storage capacity, which could influence gas prices and energy policy.

Year-on-Year and Five-Year Comparisons

The comparison with last year and the five-year average gives us an idea of the long-term trends affecting natural gas storage:

  • The total stocks are 23.5% higher than the same time last year.

  • They are also 38.4% above the five-year average.

These significant increases could be due to various factors, including changes in production levels, shifts in energy consumption patterns, or preemptive storage in anticipation of different market conditions.

Implications for Markets and Consumers

With natural gas storage levels being well above average, this could lead to a stabilizing effect on natural gas prices, barring any sudden increases in demand or major geopolitical events. Consumers might benefit from relatively stable or possibly lower energy prices in the near term. However, energy producers might face challenges with lower prices affecting their revenue streams.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, the next update scheduled for April 18, 2024, will provide further insights into the trends we're observing. Monitoring these trends is crucial for market participants and policymakers to make informed decisions.

In conclusion, the latest EIA report highlights a strong position in natural gas storage compared to previous years. This situation presents both opportunities and challenges in the energy market. As always, it will be important to keep an eye on how these trends evolve in response to economic, environmental, and political factors.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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35 pips potential profit in 18 seconds on 11 April 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 35 pips on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 11 April 2024.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (16 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Unpacking the March 2024 Producer Price Index: A Subtle Shift in Economic Trends

In March 2024, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand demonstrated a modest increase of 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This subtle uptick follows more significant rises in previous months—0.6 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. Notably, this marked a slight cooling in the pace of price increases faced by producers in the United States. Here’s a deeper dive into the nuances of the March 2024 PPI report and what these figures could signify for the broader economy.

Overview of March 2024 PPI Increases

Over the past year, the unadjusted final demand index has grown by 2.1 percent, the largest 12-month advance since a 2.3 percent increase recorded in April 2023. This year-on-year growth is primarily driven by a 0.3 percent rise in prices for final demand services, contrasting with a slight decline of 0.1 percent in the index for final demand goods.

Detailed Insights:

  • Services Sector: The increase in services was broad-based, with significant contributions from sectors like securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services, which surged by 3.1 percent. This was balanced by a notable decline in traveler accommodation services, which dropped by 3.8 percent.

  • Goods Sector: The decline in goods was led by a 1.6 percent decrease in final demand energy prices, emphasizing the volatile nature of this category. On a positive note, prices for final demand foods rose by 0.8 percent, showing some sectors still face upward pricing pressures.

Core Inflation Measures

Stripping out the often volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services, the core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) moved up by 0.2 percent in March, mirroring the general trend of modest inflation in more stable categories. This core measure has risen by 2.8 percent over the past 12 months, indicating a relatively steady inflationary environment in the core sectors of the economy.

Intermediate Demand Dynamics

The report also sheds light on intermediate demand, which tracks prices for goods, services, and construction products sold for resale, export, or as inputs to other products. In March, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand fell by 0.5 percent, largely due to a 1.5 percent drop in processed energy goods. This reflects broader declines in energy costs that could influence future final demand prices.

Conversely, prices for services for intermediate demand ticked up by 0.2 percent, supported by increases in sectors such as investment banking and metals wholesaling. These increases are important indicators of cost pressures within the service sector that could trickle down to consumer prices.

Implications for Business and Policy

For businesses, the fluctuating PPI indicates a mixed bag of cost pressures that could affect profit margins and pricing strategies. The rise in services costs, particularly in financial services, might lead to higher operational expenses, whereas the drop in goods prices, especially energy, could provide some relief.

From a policy perspective, the Federal Reserve and other policymakers will likely scrutinize these figures to assess inflationary trends and adjust monetary policy accordingly. The core PPI's steady rise suggests that underlying inflation pressures remain manageable, which could influence interest rate decisions in upcoming meetings.

Conclusion

The March 2024 PPI report highlights a complex economic landscape with divergent trends in goods and services. As we move further into 2024, businesses and policymakers must remain vigilant and adaptable to these evolving economic indicators. By understanding these trends, stakeholders can better navigate the uncertainties and opportunities that lie ahead in the dynamic U.S. economy.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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