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52 pips potential profit in 3 seconds on 21 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 52 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 21 December 2023.

USDJPY (39 pips)

EURUSD (13 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

The third estimate of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2023, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reveals several key economic trends:

  1. Real GDP Growth: There was a 4.9% annual increase in real GDP, slightly lower than the previously estimated 5.2%. This revision mainly reflects a decrease in consumer spending.

  2. Current-dollar GDP: Increased by 8.3%, reaching $27.61 trillion, with a minor downward revision from the prior estimate.

  3. GDP by Industry: Growth was seen across various sectors, with private goods-producing industries rising 10.2%, private services-producing industries 4.1%, and government 2.0%. Fourteen out of 22 industry groups contributed to this growth.

  4. Inflation Indicators: The price index for gross domestic purchases went up by 2.9%, while the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.6%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index rose by 2.0%.

  5. Personal Income and Savings: There was a notable increase in current-dollar personal income and a 2.9% rise in disposable personal income. The personal saving rate was revised upwards to 4.2%.

  6. Corporate Profits: Profits from current production rose by $108.7 billion, with increases in both financial and nonfinancial corporate sectors.

This report provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. economy's performance, indicating sustained growth with adjustments in consumer spending and corporate profits.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-estimate-and-gdp

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907 pips potential profit in 99 seconds on 14 December 2023, analysis on forex fx news trading EURNOK first on Norway interest rate decision data

According to our analysis EURNOK moved 907 pips on Norway interest rate decision (Norges Bank) data on 14 December 2023.

CORRECTION (02/01/2024)

EURNOK (907 pips)

EURNOK (1142 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Norges Bank Raises Policy Rate: Balancing Act in a Cooling Economy

Introduction: In a move to address persistent inflationary pressures, Norges Bank's Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to raise the policy rate from 4.25% to 4.5% at its meeting on December 13, 2023. This decision reflects a delicate balancing act, considering the ongoing economic cooling and the need to rein in high inflation. Let's delve into the key factors influencing this rate hike and its potential implications.

Inflationary Concerns: The primary driver behind the rate increase is the concern over inflation. Despite the economy experiencing a slowdown, inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target. The Committee aims to prevent a prolonged period of high inflation, which could have adverse effects on the economy and impact low-income groups disproportionately.

Economic Overview: The Norwegian economy is navigating through a period of cooling, with household consumption decreasing and certain sectors, such as retail trade and construction, facing challenges. Employment remains high, but the labor market is showing signs of loosening, contributing to a cautious approach in the decision-making process.

Global Factors: Internationally, inflation is on a downward trajectory, and central banks worldwide are signaling a shift towards accommodative monetary policies. This global context influences Norges Bank's decision, aligning with a broader trend of central banks adjusting to changing economic conditions.

Challenges of the Krone Depreciation: The depreciation of the krone is a cause for concern. While it helps improve manufacturing profitability, it simultaneously contributes to higher imported goods inflation. This presents a challenge for the central bank in its efforts to curb overall inflation and maintain stability in the currency.

Policy Trade-offs: The rate decision underscores the challenging trade-offs facing policymakers. Striking a balance between preventing high inflation and avoiding excessive tightening to prevent economic contraction is a delicate task. The Committee acknowledges the need for a tight monetary policy stance but emphasizes the importance of avoiding over-tightening that could hinder economic growth.

Forward Guidance: Looking ahead, the Committee provides forward guidance indicating that the policy rate is likely to be maintained at 4.5% for some time. However, there is an expectation of a gradual decrease in the later part of 2024, depending on the evolving economic conditions. The approach is cautious, with flexibility to adjust the policy rate based on uncertainties in the economic outlook.

Conclusion: Norges Bank's decision to raise the policy rate reflects a nuanced response to the economic challenges at hand. As the economy experiences a cooling period, the central bank aims to balance the risks of inflation against the potential negative impacts of excessive tightening. The forward guidance provides a roadmap for the future, emphasizing adaptability to changing economic dynamics. As we move forward, monitoring how these decisions play out in the broader economic landscape will be crucial for businesses, investors, and households alike.

Source: https://www.norges-bank.no/en/topics/Monetary-policy/Monetary-policy-meetings/2023/december-2023

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67 pips and 104 points potential profit in 199 seconds on 13 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 67 pips and US30 104 points on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 13 December 2023.

USDJPY (37 pips)

EURUSD (30 pips)

US30 (104 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

FOMC Projections - December 13, 2023

Summary of Economic Projections:

Real GDP Growth:

  • 2023:

    • December projection: Median 2.6%

    • September projection: Median 2.1%

  • 2024:

    • December projection: Median 1.4%

    • September projection: Median 1.5%

Unemployment Rate:

  • 2023:

    • December projection: Median 3.8%

    • September projection: Median 3.8%

  • 2024:

    • December projection: Median 4.1%

    • September projection: Median 4.1%

PCE Inflation:

  • 2023:

    • December projection: Median 2.8%

    • September projection: Median 3.3%

  • 2024:

    • December projection: Median 2.4%

    • September projection: Median 2.5%

Core PCE Inflation:

  • 2023:

    • December projection: Median 3.2%

    • September projection: Median 3.7%

  • 2024:

    • December projection: Median 2.4%

    • September projection: Median 2.6%

Federal Funds Rate (Projected Appropriate Policy Path):

  • 2023:

    • December projection: Median 5.4%, Range 5.4–5.4%.

    • September projection: Median 5.6%, Range 5.4–5.6%.

  • 2024:

    • December projection: Median 4.6%, Range 4.4–4.9%.

    • September projection: Median 5.1%, Range 4.6–5.4%.

  • 2025:

    • December projection: Median 3.6%, Range 3.1–3.9%.

    • September projection: Median 3.9%, Range 3.4–4.9%.

  • 2026:

    • December projection: Median 2.9%, Range 2.5–3.1%.

    • September projection: Median 2.9%, Range 2.5–4.1%.

  • Longer Run:

    • December projection: Median 2.5%, Range 2.4–3.8%.

    • September projection: Median 2.5%, Range 2.4–3.8%.

Comparison with September Projections:

  • GDP growth projections for 2023 have increased from 2.1% to 2.6%.

  • Unemployment rate projections for 2023 remain at 3.8%, while projections for 2024 have increased slightly.

  • PCE inflation projections for 2023 have decreased from 3.3% to 2.8%.

  • Core PCE inflation projections have decreased across all years.

  • The projections for the federal funds rate have generally decreased for each year from 2023 to the longer run.

  • The median projections for 2023 and 2024 are slightly lower in December compared to September.

  • The ranges for 2023 and 2024 are narrower in December, indicating a bit more consensus among participants.

  • The longer-run median and range are consistent between December and September.

Summary of the FOMC Statement - December 13, 2023:

  • Economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in Q3.

  • Job gains have moderated, but the unemployment rate remains low.

  • Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

  • The U.S. banking system is sound, but tighter financial conditions may impact economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

  • The federal funds rate target range is maintained at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.

  • The Committee remains attentive to inflation risks and committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

  • The Committee will assess information for future policy decisions, considering the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and economic developments.

  • The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

  • Voting for the monetary policy action includes Powell, Williams, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Goolsbee, Harker, Jefferson, Kashkari, Kugler, Logan, and Waller.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20231213a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20231213.htm

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47 pips potential profit in 45 seconds on 8 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 8 December 2023.

USDJPY (30 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

In December 2023, consumer sentiment in the United States experienced a substantial rebound, with a 13.2% increase from the previous month and a notable 16.1% improvement compared to December 2022. This surge, as reflected in the Index of Consumer Sentiment, marks a recovery from declines observed over the past four months. The Current Economic Conditions index also rose by 8.3% month-to-month and exhibited a remarkable 24.2% improvement compared to the same period last year. Similarly, the Index of Consumer Expectations increased by 16.9% compared to November 2023 and showed a 10.7% improvement year-over-year.

The positive shift in sentiment is attributed to improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped from 4.5% to 3.1%, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. Long-run inflation expectations also decreased from 3.2% to 2.8%, matching the second-lowest reading since July 2021. Despite these declines, long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.

All five components of the consumer sentiment index rose, with significant surges observed in the short and long-run outlook for business conditions. The improved sentiment was widespread, cutting across various demographics, including age, income, education, geography, and political identification.

Approximately 14% of consumers spontaneously mentioned the potential impact of next year's elections, and their sentiment appeared to incorporate expectations favorable to the economy. The next data release is scheduled for Friday, December 22, 2023, for the final December data, providing further insights into the evolving economic landscape.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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35 pips potential profit in 61 seconds on 8 December 2023, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 35 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 8 December 2023.

USDJPY (23 pips)

EURUSD (12 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

The Employment Situation Summary for November 2023, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides key insights into the labor market. Here are the highlights:

Household Survey Data:

  1. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate decreased to 3.7 percent, with 199,000 new jobs added in November.

  2. Demographic Unemployment Rates:

    • Teenagers: 11.4 percent (down in November).

    • Adult men: 3.7 percent.

    • Adult women: 3.1 percent.

    • Whites: 3.3 percent.

    • Blacks: 5.8 percent.

    • Asians: 3.5 percent.

    • Hispanics: 4.6 percent.

  3. Long-Term Unemployment: The number of long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased to 1.2 million, accounting for 18.3 percent of all unemployed persons.

  4. Labor Force Participation: The employment-population ratio increased to 60.5 percent. The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.8 percent.

  5. Part-Time Employment: The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 million in November.

  6. Persons Not in the Labor Force: The number of persons not in the labor force who wanted a job was 5.3 million, little different from the prior month.

Establishment Survey Data:

  1. Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Increased by 199,000 in November, with job gains in health care, government, and manufacturing. Retail trade employment declined.

  2. Industry-Specific Employment:

    • Health care: +77,000 jobs.

    • Government: +49,000 jobs.

    • Manufacturing: +28,000 jobs (reflecting the return of workers from a strike).

    • Retail trade: -38,000 jobs.

    • Leisure and hospitality: +40,000 jobs.

    • Social assistance: +16,000 jobs.

    • Information: +10,000 jobs (motion picture and sound recording industries added 17,000 jobs).

    • Transportation and warehousing: Little change.

    • Other major industries: Little change.

  3. Average Hourly Earnings: Rose by 12 cents (0.4 percent) to $34.10 for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 4.0 percent.

  4. Average Workweek: Edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls.

  5. Revisions: The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 35,000, and the change for October remained at +150,000. Combined, employment in September and October is 35,000 lower than previously reported.

The next Employment Situation report for December is scheduled for release on Friday, January 5, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Start forex fx futures news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US economic and commodity data.

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29 pips potential profit in 7 seconds on 7 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 29 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 7 December 2023.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

The latest release on Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims in the United States for the week ending December 2, 2023, indicates a slight increase in seasonally adjusted initial claims by 1,000, reaching 220,000. The 4-week moving average rose to 220,750. The insured unemployment rate decreased to 1.2%. Unadjusted data saw an increase in actual initial claims to 293,511, up 46.9% from the previous week. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate rose to 1.2%, and continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs decreased to 1,579,159.

Noteworthy state-specific data reveals the highest insured unemployment rates in New Jersey, Alaska, California, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Washington. Wisconsin experienced the largest increase in initial claims, while California saw the most significant decrease.

Federal civilian employees and newly discharged veterans claimed fewer benefits, with a decrease in both initial and continued weeks claimed. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive overview of unemployment trends at both national and state levels, including insights into specific demographic groups.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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36 pips potential profit in 130 seconds on 5 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 36 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 5 December 2023.

USDJPY (25 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the October 2023 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report: What the Numbers Reveal about the U.S. Labor Market

Introduction: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover report for October 2023, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the country's labor market. This comprehensive report covers key indicators such as job openings, hires, and separations, shedding light on trends that impact various industries and employment sectors.

Job Openings: A Closer Look: The report highlights that the number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million on the last business day of October, reflecting a decline of 617,000. This dip is particularly noteworthy, and the job openings rate, standing at 5.3 percent, decreased by 0.3 percentage points over the month and 1.1 points over the year.

The health care and social assistance, finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing sectors experienced declines in job openings. However, the information sector saw an increase of 39,000 job openings. This variance among sectors indicates the diverse landscape of employment opportunities in the U.S.

Hires and Separations: A Balanced Perspective: October 2023 saw relatively stable numbers in hires and total separations, with 5.9 million hires and 5.6 million total separations. The hires rate remained at 3.7 percent, demonstrating a steady pace in recruitment activities. Accommodation and food services, however, experienced a decrease in the number of hires by 110,000, suggesting a potential shift in this sector.

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. The quits rate, a measure of employees' willingness or ability to leave jobs, remained at 2.3 percent for the fourth consecutive month. Professional and business services saw an increase in quits by 97,000. Layoffs and discharges remained stable at 1.6 million, with no significant changes across industries.

Establishment Size Class: A Nuanced Perspective: The report breaks down the data by establishment size class, revealing interesting patterns. In October, job openings, hires, and total separations rates remained relatively stable for establishments with 1 to 9 employees. However, establishments with 5,000 or more employees saw a decrease in the quits rate and total separations rate, offering insights into the dynamics of larger enterprises.

Conclusion: The October 2023 Job Openings and Labor Turnover report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the U.S. labor market, showcasing both challenges and opportunities. The decline in job openings and shifts in hires across sectors indicate a dynamic environment. As we await the November 2023 estimates, policymakers, businesses, and job seekers can use this data to make informed decisions and navigate the evolving landscape of the U.S. labor market.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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Mastering News Trading: Strategies and Risks Explained (new video)

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Mastering News Trading: Strategies and Risks Explained (new video)

Follow our YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/@wearehaawks377 for more videos about trading.

Transcript:

Hello, traders and investors! Welcome back. I'm Angelina, and today, we're diving into the exciting world of news trading.

We'll explore what it is, how it works, and most importantly, whether it's a profitable strategy.

Section 1: Understanding News Trading

Before we get into the nitty-gritty, let's talk about what news trading is all about. News trading is a strategy where traders leverage breaking news to predict and profit from market movements. This can range from economic indicators and earnings reports to geopolitical events that shake up the financial landscape.

Section 2: The Dynamics of News Trading

So, how does news trading work, and why do traders find it so intriguing?

The idea is to anticipate how the market will react to news and position yourself to benefit from the ensuing price movements.

It's a game of speed and accuracy, requiring traders to act swiftly before the market stabilizes.

Section 3: Key Considerations for News Trading

Now, let's break down some crucial considerations for news trading. Firstly, news events often bring increased market volatility. This volatility can be an opportunity or a challenge, depending on how well you navigate it.

Section 4: The Role of Timing and Execution

Timing is everything in news trading. The faster you can act, the better your chances of success. Lucky for you, we provide one of the fastest machine-readable news feeds for macro-economic and commodity data.

Delayed execution, or slippage, can erode potential profits, emphasizing the need for quick and efficient order execution.

Section 5: Risk Management in News Trading

News trading is not without its risks, and effective risk management is paramount. Unexpected market reactions can lead to losses, so setting stop-loss orders and managing risk is essential to protect your capital.

Section 6: Profitability in News Trading

Now, the million-dollar question: Is news trading profitable?

Success in news trading depends on accurate predictions, swift execution, and robust risk management. Experienced traders with a deep understanding of market dynamics may find profitability, but it's not without challenges.

Conclusion: News Trading Unveiled

That's a wrap on news trading! Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting, understanding the dynamics of news trading is crucial.

Share your thoughts in the comments below, hit the like button if you found this video valuable, and don't forget to subscribe to our free news trading analysis at www.haawks.com. You find the link in the description.Until next time, happy trading!

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US economic and commodity data and economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

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2074 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 11 events in November 2023 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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2074 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 11 events in November 2023 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 2074 pips / ticks profit out of the following 11 events in November 2023. The potential performance in 2022 was 9,269 pips / ticks.

November 2023

Cumulative potential, indicative performance November 2023, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 23 minutes! (preparation time not included)

Navigating the Financial Seas: A November 2023 Recap of Key Economic Events

As we sail through the complex waters of the global economy, it becomes crucial for investors and traders to keep a vigilant eye on various economic indicators and events that can significantly impact financial markets. November 2023 has been a month filled with notable events and releases that have stirred the tides of the financial world. In this monthly analysis, we'll recap some of the key economic events and their market reactions that have shaped the landscape of November.

  1. US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) - November 1, 2023: The month kicked off with insights into the labor market through the JOLT survey. The market responded with 8 pips and 43 points, reflecting the importance of understanding job openings, hires, and separations in assessing economic health.

  2. US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) - November 3, 2023: A critical indicator, non-farm payrolls, revealed the pulse of the job market. The market reacted strongly with 58 pips and 83 points, underscoring the significance of employment data in shaping investor sentiment.

  3. USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) - November 9, 2023: The agricultural sector played a role with the USDA's WASDE report, influencing commodity prices with a market reaction of 76 ticks. Investors keenly observed the global agricultural supply and demand dynamics.

  4. University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations - November 10, 2023: Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, reflecting the mood of consumers, stirred the market with a modest 6 pips and 26 points. These indicators provide valuable insights into the future economic outlook.

  5. US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) - November 14, 2023: Inflation concerns took center stage with the release of the Consumer Price Index, causing a notable market reaction of 58 pips and 222 points. Inflation data is closely watched as it can impact monetary policy and investor decisions.

  6. US Producer Price Index (PPI) and US Retail Sales - November 15, 2023: The Producer Price Index and Retail Sales numbers, both crucial for understanding economic activity, prompted a market reaction of 76 pips and 66 points. These indicators provide insights into manufacturing and consumer spending.

  7. US Jobless Claims - November 16, 2023: Jobless claims, indicating the health of the labor market, influenced the market with a reaction of 17 pips. As a leading indicator of economic health, jobless claims are closely monitored for signs of economic strength or weakness.

  8. DOE Natural Gas Storage Report - November 16, 2023: The energy sector came into focus with the DOE Natural Gas Storage Report, causing a market reaction of 57 ticks. Energy reports can have a significant impact on commodity prices and related industries.

  9. US Durable Goods Orders - November 22, 2023: Durable goods orders, reflecting manufacturing activity, prompted a market reaction of 24 pips. This indicator provides insights into the demand for long-lasting goods, a key component of economic growth.

  10. University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations (Second Release) - November 22, 2023: A second release of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations maintained market interest with a reaction of 26 pips.

  11. Turkey Interest Rate Decision (TCMB) - November 23, 2023: The month concluded with a seismic market reaction of 1668 pips as the Central Bank of Turkey announced its interest rate decision. Global investors closely monitored this event, recognizing its potential to impact not only the Turkish Lira but also global markets.

November 2023 has been a month of ebbs and flows in the financial markets, driven by a diverse array of economic indicators and events. As we look ahead, it is essential for investors and traders to stay informed, adapt to evolving market conditions, and navigate the seas of uncertainty with a strategic approach. The lessons learned from November's economic events will undoubtedly shape investment strategies in the months to come.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US economic and commodity data and economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

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1668 pips potential profit in 10 seconds on 23 November 2023, analysis on forex fx news trading USDTRY first on Turkey interest rate decision data

According to our analysis USDTRY moved 1668 pips on Turkey interest rate decision (TCMB) data on 23 November 2023.

USDTRY (1668 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Navigating Economic Tides: A Closer Look at Turkey's Monetary Policy Decision and Exchange Rate Movement

November 23, 2023

In a decisive move, the Monetary Policy Committee of Turkey recently announced a significant adjustment to the policy rate, sending ripples through financial markets and impacting the USD/TRY exchange rate. Here's a closer look at the key developments and factors shaping Turkey's economic landscape.

Monetary Policy Committee's Decision: Raising the Policy Rate

Led by Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, the Committee decided to raise the policy rate, specifically the one-week repo auction rate, from 35 percent to 40 percent. This move, though not unexpected, marked a departure from the initially anticipated rate of 37.5 percent.

Inflation Dynamics and Domestic Demand: A Balancing Act

The decision was grounded in a careful evaluation of various economic indicators. Headline inflation experienced a marginal decrease in October, aligning with the projections outlined in the recent Inflation Report. However, persistent inflation pressures emanating from the existing level of domestic demand, stickiness in services inflation, and geopolitical risks necessitated a continued focus on monetary tightening.

Exchange Rate Dynamics: USD/TRY Movement

Following the Committee's decision, the USD/TRY exchange rate exhibited a significant downward movement of 1668 pips. This movement can be attributed to several factors, including the widening interest rate differential between the Turkish lira and the US dollar and shifts in market sentiment.

Committee's Outlook: Sustaining Price Stability

The Committee emphasized that the current level of monetary tightness is approaching the necessary threshold for establishing a disinflation course. While the pace of monetary tightening is expected to decelerate, the commitment to maintaining tightness remains steadfast to ensure sustained price stability.

Market Mechanisms and Financial Stability: Strengthening Foundations

Efforts to simplify and enhance the micro- and macroprudential framework continue to strengthen market mechanisms and bolster macro financial stability. Regulatory measures aimed at increasing the share of Turkish lira deposits and ongoing monetary tightening are anticipated to fortify the transmission mechanism and improve the funding composition of the banking system.

Looking Ahead: A Transparent and Predictable Approach

The Committee affirms its commitment to a transparent, data-driven, and predictable framework for decision-making. The communication approach emphasizes ongoing monitoring of inflation indicators and underlying trends, with a commitment to using all available tools to achieve the primary objective of price stability.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainties with Strategic Moves

As Turkey navigates through economic uncertainties, the recent monetary policy decision and the subsequent exchange rate movement reflect strategic moves to address inflationary pressures and enhance financial stability. The coming days will see the effects of these decisions unfold, with the Committee poised to adapt to evolving economic dynamics.

Source: https://tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/7e715cde-e17c-412d-8f09-8009ebf2af83/ANO2023-45.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-7e715cde-e17c-412d-8f09-8009ebf2af83-oLXRzbf

Start forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US and European economic and commodity data.

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