26 pips potential profit in 69 seconds on 22 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment data

According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 26 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 22 November 2023.

EURUSD (10 pips)

USDJPY (16 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Navigating Economic Crosswinds: Consumer Sentiment Update for November 2023

Introduction: In our latest consumer sentiment update for November 2023, we observe a nuanced landscape as the index experiences its fourth consecutive month of decline. This month's 2.5 index point drop, or 4% decrease, reveals a delicate balance of both positive and negative factors influencing consumer perceptions.

Key Points:

1. Mixed Economic Conditions:

   • While consumer sentiment declined, there were improvements in current economic conditions and personal finance expectations.

   • Expectations of business conditions, especially in the long run, took a notable hit, plunging by 15% to its lowest since July 2022.

2. Age Group Dynamics:

   • Younger and middle-aged consumers showed a significant decline in economic attitudes.

   • Sentiment among those aged 55 and older improved from October, showcasing a diverse range of perspectives.

3. Inflation Concerns:

   • Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5%, indicating heightened concerns compared to October's 4.2%.

   • Long-run inflation expectations reached 3.2%, the highest since 2011, despite the observed slowdown in inflation. Consumers express worries about a potential reversal in the coming months and years.

4. Director's Insight:

   • Joanne Hsu, Surveys of Consumers Director, notes the delicate interplay of factors contributing to the sentiment decline. She highlights the juxtaposition of improved personal financial expectations against concerns about long-term business conditions.

Conclusion: As we navigate the economic crosswinds of November 2023, the consumer sentiment report provides valuable insights. While some indicators point towards optimism, the cautionary notes, especially regarding inflation and long-term business conditions, underscore the complexity of the economic landscape. Keeping an eye on future releases will be crucial for understanding how these dynamics continue to evolve. Stay tuned for our next update on Friday, December 8, 2023, as we delve into the preliminary December data and continue to decode the pulse of consumer sentiment.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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24 pips potential profit in 42 seconds on 22 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Durable Goods Orders data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 24 pips on US Durable Goods Orders data on 22 November 2023.

USDJPY (15 pips)

EURUSD (9 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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In October 2023, new orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States decreased by $16.0 billion or 5.4 percent to $279.4 billion, marking the third decline in the last four months. This followed a 4.0 percent increase in September. Excluding transportation, new orders remained relatively unchanged, while excluding defense, new orders decreased by 6.7 percent. The decline was driven by the transportation equipment sector, which saw a significant drop of $16.0 billion or 14.8 percent to $92.1 billion. The U.S. Census Bureau will continue to monitor and report on durable goods manufacturing trends.

Source: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html

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57 ticks potential profit in 42 seconds on 16 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 57 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 16 November 2023.

Natural gas (57 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report provides information on the current status of natural gas storage in the United States. Here's a summary of the key data for the week ending November 10, 2023:

Working Gas in Underground Storage:

• Total working gas in storage: 3,833 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

• Net change from the previous week: +60 Bcf (an increase)

• Working gas stocks compared to last year: +198 Bcf

• Working gas stocks compared to the five-year average: +203 Bcf

Regional Breakdown:

1. East Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 931 Bcf

   • Net change: +7 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +51 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +34 Bcf

2. Midwest Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 1,116 Bcf

   • Net change: +11 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +34 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +34 Bcf

3. Mountain Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 256 Bcf

   • Net change: +3 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +48 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +46 Bcf

4. Pacific Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 292 Bcf

   • Net change: +8 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +50 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +16 Bcf

5. South Central Region:

   • Working gas stocks: 1,238 Bcf

   • Net change: +32 Bcf

   • Compared to last year: +65 Bcf

   • Compared to the five-year average: +65 Bcf

   • Salt Caverns: 332 Bcf (+19 Bcf)

   • Nonsalt Facilities: 906 Bcf (+13 Bcf)

Summary:

• Total working gas in storage is within the five-year historical range.

• The overall increase in working gas compared to the previous week was 60 Bcf.

• Stocks are higher than both last year and the five-year average by 198 Bcf and 203 Bcf, respectively.

It's worth noting that the data is subject to independent rounding, and totals may not equal the sum of components. The next release of the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for November 22, 2023.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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17 pips potential profit in 42 seconds on 16 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 17 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 16 November 2023.

USDJPY (12 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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In the week ending November 11, 2023, the United States saw a rise in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted initial unemployment claims. The seasonally adjusted figure reached 231,000, reflecting a notable increase of 13,000 from the previous week, with a 4-week moving average of 220,250. The unadjusted data reported 215,874 actual initial claims, marking a week-to-week increase of 0.8 percent. Despite seasonal expectations for a decrease, the figures demonstrate a rise.

The insured unemployment rate also showed an increase, reaching 1.3 percent, a 0.1 percentage point uptick from the previous week. The number of insured unemployed individuals rose to 1,865,000, marking the highest level since November 27, 2021. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.1 percent, with 1,581,345 individuals claiming benefits, a decrease of 1.6 percent from the preceding week.

Source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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76 pips and 66 points potential profit in 518 seconds on 15 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 76 pips and US30 moved 66 points on US Producer Price Index (PPI) and US Retail Sales data on 15 November 2023.

USDJPY (54 pips)

EURUSD (22 pips)

US30 (66 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Decoding Economic Metrics: PPI and Retail Sales Analysis

Introduction:

In the intricate realm of economic data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales serve as critical gauges, offering nuanced insights into inflationary pressures and consumer behavior. In this analytical discourse, we delve into the latest iterations of these indicators—October 2023's PPI and Retail Sales—unveiling the underlying economic narratives and the potential implications for financial markets.

Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights:

The PPI for final demand witnessed a notable contraction of 0.5 percent in October 2023, marking the most substantial downturn since April 2020. The catalyst behind this descent was a pronounced 6.5 percent decline in the index for final demand energy, indicating a substantial recalibration in energy-related price dynamics.

On an annualized basis, the unadjusted PPI for final demand posted a modest 1.3 percent increase, while the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services exhibited a more robust 2.9 percent ascent. This exclusionary measure provides a clearer lens into core price movements, discounting the volatility introduced by food, energy, and trade services.

PPI's Market Implications:

The market's response to PPI nuances can be discerned through shifts in expectations around inflation. A decline in the PPI may trigger reassessments of inflationary pressures, potentially influencing central banks in their policy deliberations. Investors, attuned to these shifts, may recalibrate their portfolios in response to evolving economic projections.

Retail Sales: Deciphering Consumer Sentiment:

October 2023's retail and food services sales registered a marginal 0.1 percent contraction from the preceding month, totaling $705.0 billion. However, a more sanguine narrative emerges from the 2.5 percent year-over-year uptick, reflecting the resilience of consumer spending in the face of economic flux.

While retail trade sales retreated by 0.2 percent from September, they advanced by 1.6 percent compared to the previous year. Noteworthy is the commendable 7.6 percent surge in nonstore retailers, underscoring the continued prominence of e-commerce in shaping retail landscapes.

Interpreting Retail Sales in the Market Context:

Retail sales data holds a mirror to consumer confidence and economic vitality. A contraction in retail sales may evoke concerns about the durability of economic growth, impacting sectors tethered to consumer demand. Conversely, an upward trajectory in retail sales figures may inject optimism into investor sentiments.

Synthesis: Market Response to PPI and Retail Sales:

The market's immediate reaction manifested in currency and stock markets. The USD/JPY pair appreciated by 54 pips, signaling a favorable outlook for the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. Conversely, the EUR/USD pair depreciated by 22 pips, portraying a reduction in the Euro's value against the US Dollar. The US30, representative of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, declined by 66 points, suggestive of a potentially cautious or pessimistic sentiment within equity markets.

Conclusion:

In the intricate choreography of economic indicators, the PPI and Retail Sales are pivotal performers, dictating market rhythms and investor sentiments. This nuanced analysis underscores the importance of these metrics in navigating the complex terrain of economic landscapes, offering stakeholders a compass to steer through the intricacies of global financial dynamics.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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58 pips and 222 points potential profit in 444 seconds on 14 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY and US30 on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 58 pips and US30 moved 222 points on US BLS CPI (Consumer Price Index) data on 14 November 2023.

EURUSD (38 pips)

USDJPY (20 pips)

US30 (222 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) remained unchanged in October, following a 0.4 percent increase in September. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased by 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Components:

• Shelter: The index for shelter continued its upward trend, compensating for a decline in the gasoline index, resulting in a stable seasonally adjusted index for the month.

• Energy: The energy index fell by 2.5 percent in October, largely due to a significant decline in the gasoline index. The energy index decreased by 4.5 percent over the last 12 months.

• Food: The food index increased by 0.3 percent, with the index for food at home rising by 0.3 percent and food away from home rising by 0.4 percent.

• All Items Less Food and Energy: This index rose by 0.2 percent in October, driven by notable increases in rent, owners' equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, recreation, and personal care.

Inflation Rates:

• All Items: The all items index rose by 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, a smaller increase than the 3.7-percent rise for the 12 months ending September.

• All Items Less Food and Energy: This index rose by 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month change since September 2021.

• Energy: The energy index decreased by 4.5 percent for the 12 months ending October.

Selected Categories:

• Food at Home: The index rose by 2.1 percent over the last 12 months.

• Food Away From Home: The index rose by 5.4 percent over the last year.

• Energy Commodities: Notable decline of 6.2 percent over the last 12 months.

• New Vehicles: An increase of 1.9 percent.

• Used Cars and Trucks: A decrease of 7.1 percent.

Notable Changes:

• Shelter: The shelter index played a significant role in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.

• Medical Care: The medical care index rose by 0.3 percent in October, with increases in hospital services and prescription drugs.

• Transportation Services: Experienced an increase of 9.2 percent over the month.

Market Reaction: In response to this CPI data, the financial markets exhibited specific movements:

• EURUSD: Demonstrated an upward movement of 38 pips, reflecting a stronger Euro against the US Dollar.

• USDJPY: Experienced a downward movement of 20 pips, indicating a weaker US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

• US30 (Dow Jones): Showed an upward movement of 222 points, suggesting positive sentiment in the stock market.

Outlook: The all items index rose by 3.2 percent over the last 12 months. The next CPI for November 2023 is scheduled to be released on December 12, 2023.

This comprehensive overview combines CPI data, market reactions, and potential economic implications, providing a well-rounded understanding of the economic landscape in October 2023.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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6 pips and 26 points potential profit in 7 seconds on 10 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and US30 on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis EURUSD and US30 moved 6 pips and 26 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 10 November 2023.

EURUSD (6 pips)

US30 (26 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The November 2023 Michigan Consumer Sentiment report portrays a sustained decline in consumer sentiment for the fourth consecutive month. The overall index dipped by 5.3% from October, marking subtle shifts in distinct components. While there were marginal upticks in current and expected personal finances, the long-term economic outlook notably plunged by 12%. Factors such as concerns over high interest rates and ongoing global conflicts in regions like Gaza and Ukraine contributed to this decline. The impact was most pronounced among lower-income and younger consumers, whereas the top tier of stockholders showed a substantial 10% improvement, reflecting recent strength in equity markets.

Additionally, the report emphasized a surge in inflation expectations. Both short-term and long-term projections notably increased, especially in gas prices, reaching the year's highest levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.4%, highlighting a consistent rise in recent months. Long-run inflation expectations also reached 3.2%, the highest since 2011.

In the markets, the reaction to this sentiment report was relatively measured. While the forex market saw a minor 6-pip downturn in EUR/USD, and the US30 index experienced a 26-point drop, these fluctuations were within the range of typical market movements. Such modest shifts might not signify substantial changes unless part of broader, sustained trends. Traders often analyze these fluctuations in conjunction with other indicators or news to make informed decisions, recognizing them as part of regular market dynamics. The forthcoming data release in November is anticipated to provide further insights into whether these trends will persist or potentially shift.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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76 ticks potential profit on 9 November 2023, analysis on trading soybeans and corn futures on USDA WASDE data

According to our analysis soybeans (ZS) and corn (ZC) futures prices moved around 76 ticks on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) data on 9 November 2023.

Soybeans (56 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The October 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report presents a comprehensive overview of various key agricultural sectors, both domestically in the United States and globally. Here are the highlights of the report along with additional information on market movements:

Wheat & Coarse Grains:

• U.S. Wheat: Shows increased supplies, higher domestic use, and ending stocks due to augmented production.

• Global Wheat: Indicates reduced supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks due to varied production changes across countries.

• U.S. Corn: Forecasts decreased supplies, exports, and ending stocks because of reduced production and demand.

• Global Coarse Grains: Reflects mixed production changes affecting trade and stocks across different countries.

Rice & Oilseeds:

• U.S. Rice: Predicts slightly reduced supplies with increased exports. Global trade and supplies fluctuate slightly.

• U.S. Oilseeds (Soybeans): Forecasts reduced production, impacting exports and supplies. Global oilseed production changes differ across nations, affecting trade and stocks.

Sugar, Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy:

• Sugar: Reports supply changes in Mexico and the U.S., influenced by factors such as drought.

• Livestock, Poultry, Dairy: Demonstrates adjustments in production, exports, imports, and price forecasts driven by factors like demand, market competition, and supply variations.

Cotton and Global Outlook:

• Cotton: Forecasts lower U.S. production, exports, and ending stocks. Globally, changes in production and trade in various countries impact the overall market scenario.

Additionally, we noticed the following market movements:

• Soybean Futures: Experienced a 56-tick downward movement, possibly in response to reduced U.S. soybean production and increased competition from South America.

• Corn Futures: Witnessed a 20-tick decline, likely due to decreased U.S. corn production, slow early-season demand, and lower feed and residual use, as outlined in the report.

The market reaction was mixed, as reflected in the fluctuations across various commodities, indicating a complex interplay of supply, demand, and global factors. These adjustments hold implications for traders, investors, and policymakers, guiding them in making informed decisions within the dynamic agricultural landscape.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde

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Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

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58 pips and 83 points potential profit in 89 seconds on 3 November 2023, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 58 pips and US30 around 83 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 3 November 2023.

USDJPY (36 pips)

EURUSD (22 pips)

US30 (83 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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BLS Employment Report - October 2023:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Employment Situation Summary for October 2023. The key points from the report are as follows:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October.

• The unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 3.9 percent.

• Job gains were seen in the health care, government, and social assistance sectors, while manufacturing employment declined due to strike activity.

• Household survey data revealed that the unemployment rate stood at 3.9 percent, with 6.5 million unemployed persons.

Market Reaction:

In response to the BLS report, financial markets exhibited notable reactions:

• USD/JPY: The USD/JPY currency pair moved 36 pips down, indicating a weakening of the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese Yen. This reaction in the forex market suggests concerns about the U.S. economic outlook.

• EUR/USD: The EUR/USD currency pair moved 22 pips up, reflecting a strengthening of the Euro against the U.S. Dollar. This may imply confidence in the European economy relative to the U.S.

• US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average): The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 83 points, suggesting positive sentiment in the stock market. Investors viewed the employment report as a positive sign for the U.S. economy.

Expectation vs. Reality:

It's important to note that the actual non-farm payroll figures in the October report deviated from expectations. While expectations were for a higher figure, the actual employment gains were reported at 150,000, which was below the anticipated number. This discrepancy between expectations and the actual result can impact market sentiment and trading strategies.

In summary, the BLS report for October 2023 showed modest job growth and relatively stable unemployment rates, with notable market reactions. The difference between the expected and actual non-farm payroll figures highlights the dynamic nature of economic data and its influence on financial markets.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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8 pips and 43 points potential profit in 36 seconds on 1 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and US30 on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 8 pips and US30 moved 43 points on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 1 November 2023.

EURUSD (8 pips)

US30 (43 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary" for September 2023. Here are the key highlights from the report:

Job Openings:

• The number of job openings remained relatively stable at 9.6 million on the last business day of September.

• The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.7 percent.

• Job openings increased in the accommodation and food services industry (+141,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+39,000).

• However, job openings decreased in other services (-124,000), federal government (-43,000), and information (-41,000).

Hires:

• In September, the number of hires changed little, remaining at 5.9 million.

• The hire rate was 3.7 percent for the third consecutive month.

• The number of hires remained relatively stable across all industries.

Separations:

• Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations.

• The number and rate of total separations in September changed little at 5.5 million and 3.5 percent, respectively.

• Over the month, total separations decreased in state and local government education (-42,000) and in nondurable goods manufacturing (-37,000) but increased in federal government (+8,000).

Quits:

• In September, the number of quits changed little at 3.7 million, and the quit rate was 2.3 percent for the third consecutive month.

• The number of quits increased in the information industry (+24,000) but decreased in state and local government, excluding education (-15,000).

Layoffs and Discharges:

• In September, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.5 million and 1.0 percent, respectively.

• The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in state and local government education (-22,000).

Other Separations:

• The number of other separations remained relatively stable in September at 352,000.

Establishment Size Class:

• Job openings, hires, and total separations rates remained stable for establishments with 1 to 9 employees.

• The job openings rate decreased for establishments with 5,000 or more employees.

The report provides insights into the state of the labor market, including job openings, hires, and separations across various industries and establishment sizes.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for October 2023 are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, December 5, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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