According to our analysis there was a potential of 126 pips / ticks profit out of the following 4 events in December 2024. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

December 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance December 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 3 minutes! (preparation time not included)

Navigating Key Economic Releases: December 2024 Insights

December 2024 presents a series of pivotal economic releases that promise to shape the financial markets’ trajectory as we close the year. With markets bracing for volatility, understanding the nuances of these data points is essential for traders and analysts alike. Below, we dissect the key releases: the JOLT survey, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), DOE Natural Gas Storage Report, and the FOMC interest rate decision.

1. US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT)

Release Date: December 3, 2024
Historical Impact: ~18 pips on forex markets

The JOLT survey is a cornerstone in gauging labor market health. In December 2024, market participants will scrutinize job openings, hires, and quits rates. These metrics provide insights into labor demand and employee confidence. High job openings suggest robust demand, whereas elevated quits typically indicate worker confidence in securing alternative employment.

Research Highlights:

  • Comparative Trends: With the Fed closely monitoring labor tightness to combat inflation, the JOLT data could hint at wage pressures.

  • Sectoral Shifts: Watch for growth in tech, healthcare, and leisure industries, which historically exhibit sensitivity to broader economic conditions.

2. US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls / NFP)

Release Date: December 6, 2024
Historical Impact: ~37 pips on forex markets

The NFP report remains the month’s most anticipated release. Beyond the headline payroll number, traders should evaluate unemployment rates and average hourly earnings. These components often guide monetary policy expectations.

Key Considerations:

  • Wage Growth: Accelerating wages could validate concerns of sticky inflation, prompting hawkish Federal Reserve action.

  • Sectoral Employment: Look for potential divergences, such as strength in construction and logistics versus weaknesses in retail.

3. DOE Natural Gas Storage Report

Release Date: December 12, 2024
Historical Impact: ~35 ticks on natural gas futures

Seasonal patterns often amplify the significance of the DOE’s natural gas storage report in December. As winter demand peaks, inventory data offers critical supply-demand balance insights.

Market Dynamics:

  • Weather Correlations: Cold weather forecasts could exacerbate price volatility if storage draws exceed expectations.

  • Production Trends: Monitor domestic production levels and LNG exports, which have increasingly influenced global natural gas prices.

4. FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections

Release Date: December 18, 2024
Historical Impact: ~36 pips on forex markets

The Federal Reserve’s December meeting will be particularly consequential, as it includes updated economic projections. The interest rate decision and accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will clarify the Fed’s policy direction.

Focus Areas:

  • Interest Rate Path: Markets will parse the dot plot to infer future rate trajectories.

  • Inflation and Growth Forecasts: Revisions to core PCE inflation and GDP growth forecasts will influence broader sentiment.

  • Press Conference Signals: Chair Powell’s commentary could provide vital clues on how the Fed views labor market resilience and inflation trends heading into 2025.

Strategies for Traders

  • Pre-Positioning: Historically, markets exhibit caution ahead of these releases. Consider reducing exposure to avoid whipsaws.

  • Event-Specific Plays:

    • JOLT and NFP: Focus on USD pairs and bond yields.

    • Natural Gas Storage Report: Trade volatility in natural gas futures and ETFs.

    • FOMC Decision: Watch for broad USD moves and sectoral impacts on equities.

  • Cross-Market Analysis: Evaluate correlations between equities, commodities, and forex to anticipate broader market reactions.

Conclusion

December 2024 offers a dense calendar of influential economic data. By closely monitoring these releases and contextualizing them within broader macroeconomic trends, traders and analysts can better navigate the complexities of the financial markets. Staying informed and agile will be key as the year concludes with these impactful events.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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