55 ticks potential profit in 42 seconds on 1 May 2025, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 55 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 1 May 2025.

Natural gas (55 ticks)

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Natural Gas Storage Inches Upward as Spring Builds Continue

May 2, 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report on May 1, 2025, revealing a notable build in underground natural gas stocks as the country transitions deeper into spring. For the week ending April 25, 2025, working gas in storage across the Lower 48 states rose by 107 billion cubic feet (Bcf), bringing total inventories to 2,041 Bcf.

This increase keeps gas storage slightly ahead of the five-year average of 2,036 Bcf and narrows the year-on-year deficit, although stocks still trail last year's levels by 435 Bcf, a decline of 17.6%.

Regional Storage Trends

Breaking it down by region:

• East: Added 36 Bcf, reaching 331 Bcf—down 21.7% from last year.

• Midwest: Increased by 29 Bcf to 425 Bcf, 24.4% lower than a year ago.

• Mountain: Saw a modest build of 3 Bcf to 174 Bcf, only 3.9% off from 2024 levels.

• Pacific: Added 5 Bcf to hit 226 Bcf, down 5.4% from last year but still 19.6% above the five-year average.

• South Central: Gained 34 Bcf to reach 885 Bcf, with the Salt component up 15 Bcf and Nonsalt up 20 Bcf.

Despite the year-over-year deficit, this week's build puts national storage comfortably within the five-year historical range—an encouraging sign for market stability heading into the summer months.

A Closer Look at Variability

The EIA also provided sampling variability estimates. The total coefficient of variation for stocks was just 0.4%, suggesting high reliability in this week's numbers. Standard error for the net change was only ±1.0 Bcf, reinforcing confidence in the reported 107 Bcf injection.

Outlook

With injection season ramping up, attention turns to weather forecasts, LNG export trends, and domestic demand as key drivers of storage trajectories in the weeks ahead. If moderate builds like this week’s continue, the market could see a more balanced setup heading into the heating season later this year, despite the current shortfall relative to 2024.

Stay tuned for the next report on May 8, 2025, for updates on how U.S. storage levels are evolving.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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29 pips and US500 7 points potential profit in 64 seconds on 1 May 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and US500 on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 29 pips and US500 moved 7 points on US Jobless Claims data on 1 May 2025.

USDJPY (29 pips)

US500 (7 points)

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Weekly Jobless Claims Rise Sharply to 241,000 – Is the Labor Market Cooling?

May 1, 2025 – U.S. Department of Labor Report Summary

This week's unemployment insurance claims report from the U.S. Department of Labor signals potential shifts in the U.S. labor market, as both initial claims and continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose sharply.

Key Highlights

• Initial Claims Surge: For the week ending April 26, the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 241,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised total of 223,000.

• Highest Since August 2023: This marks one of the largest weekly increases in recent months and pushes the 4-week moving average up by 5,500 to 226,000.

• Insured Unemployment Increases: The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits, known as insured unemployment, jumped by 83,000 to 1.916 million for the week ending April 19. This is the highest level since November 2021.

• Insured Unemployment Rate Rises: The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%, reflecting more workers staying on unemployment benefits for longer.

State-Level Trends

Several states reported notable increases in new jobless claims:

• New Jersey: +2,875 claims, driven by layoffs in the educational services sector.

• Connecticut: +2,231 claims (no specific reason cited).

• Rhode Island: +1,868 claims, impacted by job losses in transportation, hospitality, administration, and healthcare.

Meanwhile, other states saw sharp drops in claims:

• Kentucky: -4,613 claims due to fewer layoffs in manufacturing.

• Texas and Oklahoma: Claims fell by 1,896 and 1,336, respectively.

Long-Term Trends & Context

Compared to the same week in 2024:

• Initial claims are up from 209,000 to 241,000.

• Insured unemployment is also higher, rising from 1.771 million to 1.916 million.

• The unadjusted insured unemployment rate has increased from 1.2% to 1.3%.

These shifts may suggest emerging softness in the labor market, particularly in service-oriented and seasonal industries. However, fluctuations in weekly claims data are common and can be influenced by temporary factors such as school breaks, business cycles, and hiring lulls.

Why It Matters

Initial claims are considered a leading indicator of labor market health, reflecting real-time business decisions around hiring and layoffs. A sustained increase over several weeks could point to a broader slowdown in hiring or rising job insecurity. Conversely, continued strength in other economic indicators (like job openings or wage growth) may buffer these effects.

What to Watch

• Will the trend continue in the coming weeks, or is this a one-off spike?

• How will the Federal Reserve interpret this data amid ongoing inflation and interest rate decisions?

• Are certain industries or regions consistently showing signs of strain?

Bottom Line: While the labor market remains relatively strong by historical standards, this week's uptick in unemployment claims warrants attention. Policymakers, businesses, and job seekers alike will be watching closely to see if this marks the start of a new trend.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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148 pips, US500 21 points and BTC 305 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 7 events in April 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 148 pips, US500 21 points and BTC 305 points profit out of the following 7 event in April 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

April 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance April 2025, please see all releases below.

• US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (21 pips / 1 April 2025)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (27 ticks / 3 April 2025)

• DOE Petroleum Status Report (29 ticks / 9 April 2025)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (24 ticks / 17 April 2025)

• DOE Petroleum Status Report (19 ticks / 23 April 2025)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (28 ticks / 24 April 2025)

• US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (US500 21 points, BTC 305 points / 30 April 2025)

Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes! (preparation time not included)

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April 2025 Macro Wrap-Up: Labor, Energy, and GDP Trends Shape Market Sentiment

As April 2025 closes, a clearer picture emerges of a U.S. economy navigating multiple crosscurrents—from labor market softening to evolving energy dynamics and a mild GDP contraction. Here's a factual roundup of key economic reports that moved markets and influenced investor sentiment this month.

JOLTS Report (February 2025 Data)

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February showed that the U.S. labor market continues to gradually cool:

• Job Openings: 7.6 million (down 194,000 from January, down 877,000 YoY)

• Hires: 5.4 million (unchanged)

• Quits: 3.2 million (unchanged MoM, but down 273,000 YoY)

• Layoffs & Discharges: 1.8 million (flat)

Key Sectoral Trends:

• Retail layoffs: +67,000

• Real Estate layoffs: +24,000

• Federal Government layoffs: +18,000

• Transportation/Warehousing: -42,000 layoffs (a positive shift)

Market Implications:
The persistent decline in job openings and stable (but low) quits rate support a view that wage pressures are easing—reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may tilt dovish in the second half of 2025. Retail and real estate sector weakness may pressure consumer and housing-related equities, while strength in transportation hints at selective industrial resilience.

Natural Gas Market Trends (March–April 2025)

March 28 Storage Report:

• Weekly build: +29 Bcf

• Total inventory: 1,773 Bcf

• Still 491 Bcf below year-ago levels

April 16 Update:

• Henry Hub Spot: $3.21/MMBtu → $3.247/MMBtu

• Supply held steady, demand fell 6.9%

• LNG exports remained high at 129 Bcf across 34 vessels

• Storage injection: +16 Bcf (well below 5-year average of 50 Bcf)

April 23 Update:

• Spot price: $2.93/MMBtu (down $0.28 WoW)

• Storage: +88 Bcf injection

• Working stocks: 1,934 Bcf (2% below 5-year avg)

Regional Volatility:

• Waha Hub: -$1.33/MMBtu

• Houston Ship Channel: +$0.11/MMBtu

• Algonquin Citygate: -$0.68/MMBtu

Takeaway:
Warm weather and weak residential demand have driven prices lower, despite modest production growth and high LNG exports. Storage levels remain below average, but recent builds indicate easing supply concerns.

Petroleum Status Reports – April 2025

Week Ending April 4:

• Refinery utilization: 86.7%

• Gasoline production: 8.9M bpd

• Crude inventories: +2.6M barrels

• Distillate inventories: -3.5M barrels

• Gasoline inventories: -1.6M barrels

Week Ending April 18:

• Refinery utilization: 88.1%

• Gasoline production: 10.1M bpd

• Gasoline inventories: -4.5M barrels (3% below average)

• Distillate inventories: -2.4M barrels (13% below average)

• Propane: +2.3M barrels

Retail Prices:

• Gasoline: $3.141/gallon (down $0.527 YoY)

• Diesel: $3.534/gallon (down $0.458 YoY)

Key Themes:
Rising refinery utilization suggests preparation for the summer driving season. Distillate and jet fuel demand are notably strong, while gasoline inventory declines point to tightness that could intensify if demand spikes.

Q1 2025 GDP: A Mild Contraction Amid Rising Imports

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

• Real GDP: -0.3% (Q/Q annualized)

• Previous quarter: +2.4%

Drivers of Contraction:

• Imports: Rose sharply (especially in pharmaceuticals, electronics)

• Government spending: Fell, led by federal defense cuts

• Exports: Increased but not enough to offset imports

Strength Areas:

• Consumer spending: Led by services and nondurables

• Private investment: Boosted by wholesale inventory buildup

Inflation Measures:

• PCE Index: +3.6%

• Core PCE: +3.5%

• Gross domestic purchases index: +3.4%

Private Demand Indicator:

• Real final sales to private domestic purchasers: +3.0%

Wildfire Impacts:
$34B in private asset damage and $11B in public infrastructure loss from January wildfires in Southern California—not included in GDP directly but significant in broader economic context.

Conclusion: What's Next?

The data paints a mixed but informative picture:

• The labor market is softening, which may open the door for policy easing.

• Energy markets are navigating seasonal shifts with mixed supply/demand signals.

• The GDP miss, though modest, raises concerns over trade imbalances and fiscal drag.

• Inflation remains sticky—likely to remain a central factor in Fed decision-making.

With the next JOLTS report and further inflation data due ahead of the FOMC’s mid-year meetings, market participants will be watching closely for confirmation—or contradiction—of these emerging trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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US500 21 points and BTC 305 points potential profit in 180 seconds on 30 April 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading US500 and BTC on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data

According to our analysis US500 moved 21 points and BTC moved 305 points on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 30 April 2025.

US500 (21 points)

BTC (305 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Economy Contracts Slightly in Q1 2025 Amid Rising Imports and Government Spending Cuts

Posted April 30, 2025

The U.S. economy experienced a mild contraction in the first quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent from January through March, a sharp reversal from the 2.4 percent growth posted in the final quarter of 2024.

This downturn was driven primarily by a surge in imports—especially in consumer goods such as pharmaceuticals and capital goods like computer hardware—and a decline in federal government spending, notably on defense. These negative contributions were only partly offset by gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

A Deeper Look at the Components

Consumer Spending:
Consumer activity remained a bright spot in the economy, increasing during the quarter. Services led the charge, particularly in health care and housing-related expenditures. On the goods side, spending on nondurable goods rose, though this was partially offset by a dip in durable goods purchases.

Investment:
Private inventory investment saw notable growth, largely due to increased inventory in wholesale trade—especially drugs and sundries. This uptick played a major role in mitigating the overall GDP decline.

Imports and Exports:
The increase in imports significantly outpaced export growth, dragging down GDP. While exports did rise, they were not enough to offset the negative impact of higher imports. Notably, the BEA made an adjustment to remove a spike in silver bar imports from investment calculations, as such metals are considered valuables rather than productive assets under GDP accounting rules.

Government Spending:
Federal government expenditures decreased sharply, led by cuts in defense spending. This was partially balanced by a rise in compensation at the state and local government level, but overall, public sector spending contributed negatively to GDP.

Inflation Pressures Mount

Inflation picked up across key indicators. The gross domestic purchases price index rose 3.4 percent in Q1, compared to 2.2 percent in Q4 2024. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, with the core PCE index—excluding food and energy—rising 3.5 percent. These figures point to growing inflationary pressure, potentially shaping future monetary policy decisions.

Underlying Strength in Private Demand

Despite the headline GDP contraction, underlying private demand remained strong. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—which combines consumer spending and fixed investment—grew by 3.0 percent, slightly higher than the 2.9 percent gain in Q4. This suggests the domestic private sector remains resilient.

The Wildfire Factor

Economic disruptions from January’s wildfires in Southern California, primarily in Los Angeles County, were embedded within the broader data but not isolated in the GDP estimate. Preliminary BEA figures estimate that these fires caused $34.0 billion in damage to privately owned fixed assets and $11.0 billion in losses to state and local government infrastructure. While such destruction does not directly affect GDP, it represents a significant loss of wealth.

Looking Ahead

Today’s report is an advance estimate and subject to revision. The second estimate, which will incorporate more complete data, is scheduled for release on May 29, 2025. This will also include preliminary figures on corporate profits, offering additional insight into the underlying economic conditions as the U.S. navigates a complex mix of inflation, investment shifts, and climate-related disruptions.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-advance-estimate

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28 ticks potential profit in 48 seconds on 24 April 2025, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 28 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 24 April 2025.

Natural gas (28 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Natural Gas Market Update: Week Ending April 23, 2025

The U.S. natural gas market experienced a broad decline in prices and demand this past week, influenced primarily by unseasonably warm weather and lower residential consumption across key regions. Here's a snapshot of the major trends driving the market, based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Price Movements

National Benchmarks:

• Henry Hub Spot Price dropped by 28 cents, from $3.21/MMBtu to $2.93/MMBtu.

• May 2025 NYMEX Futures fell by 23 cents, ending at $3.022/MMBtu.

• The 12-month strip (May 2025–April 2026) averaged $3.756/MMBtu, down 17 cents from the prior week.

Regional Highlights:

• Northeast prices saw sharp declines due to warming temperatures. Boston’s Algonquin Citygate fell 68 cents to $2.19/MMBtu, while Transco Zone 6 NY dropped 65 cents to $2.08/MMBtu.

• Waha Hub in the Permian Basin saw the largest regional decline, falling $1.33.

• Houston Ship Channel stood out with an 11-cent increase.

Weather and Demand Impacts

Temperature swings significantly reduced heating demand in the Northeast:

• Boston: Avg. temperature rose from 45°F to 56°F, leading to 72 fewer heating degree days.

• New York (Central Park): Avg. temperature climbed 14°F to 62°F.

This warming trend led to a 51% drop in residential and commercial natural gas consumption in the Northeast, down 4.6 Bcf/d week-over-week.

Supply and Demand Overview

• Total supply of natural gas fell by 1.0 Bcf/d (0.9%), mainly due to a 16.3% drop in net imports from Canada.

• Dry gas production remained flat at 106.3 Bcf/d.

• Total U.S. consumption dropped by 6.3 Bcf/d (8.7%), driven by a:

  • 31.7% decline in residential and commercial use (-6.7 Bcf/d),

  • 2.6% decline in industrial consumption (-0.6 Bcf/d),

  • Slight 3.3% increase in power generation use (+0.9 Bcf/d).

LNG Exports and Pipeline Activity

• LNG pipeline receipts averaged 16.1 Bcf/d, down 0.7 Bcf/d from the previous week.

  • South Louisiana terminals led the drop, down 6.7% (0.7 Bcf/d).

  • South Texas and other U.S. terminals held steady.

• 27 LNG vessels departed U.S. ports, carrying a combined 102 Bcf of natural gas.

Rig Activity

• Natural gas rig count increased by 1 rig to 98.

  • Gains were noted in the Marcellus (+1) and Utica (+2).

  • Two rigs were dropped in unspecified regions.

• Oil-directed rigs also rose by 1, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 585, still 34 rigs fewer than the same time last year.

Storage Update

• Net injections into storage totaled 88 Bcf, above both the five-year average (58 Bcf) and last year’s injections (86 Bcf) for this week.

• Working gas stocks stood at 1,934 Bcf, which is:

  • 2% below the five-year average,

  • 20% below last year’s level at this time.

Key Takeaway:
Warmer weather across the U.S. has significantly reduced natural gas consumption, especially in the Northeast, leading to falling prices and a slight build in storage. While supply has held relatively steady, the combination of reduced imports, softening demand, and flat production paints a picture of a well-supplied market under less pressure—at least for now.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2025/04_24/

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19 ticks potential profit in 93 seconds on 23 April 2025, analysis on futures news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report data

According to our analysis crude oil moved 19 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report data on 23 April 2025.

Light sweet crude oil (19 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Weekly Petroleum Snapshot – April 18, 2025

The U.S. petroleum landscape for the week ending April 18, 2025, reveals a dynamic balance of supply, demand, and prices amid seasonal transitions and evolving energy trends. Let’s break down the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Refinery Operations and Output

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million barrels per day, rising by 326,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Refineries operated at 88.1% of their operable capacity, reflecting an uptick as refineries ramp up ahead of peak driving season.

• Gasoline production: Rose to 10.1 million barrels/day

• Distillate fuel production: Dropped slightly to 4.6 million barrels/day

Imports and Inventories

Crude oil imports fell notably:

• Crude imports: Dropped to 5.6 million barrels/day, down 412,000 from the previous week

• Four-week average: 6.1 million barrels/day, 6.8% lower than last year

Meanwhile, inventory trends showed a mixed bag:

• Crude oil inventories (excluding SPR): Up by 0.2 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels, still 5% below the five-year seasonal average

• Gasoline inventories: Down 4.5 million barrels, now 3% below average

• Distillate inventories: Down 2.4 million barrels, a significant 13% below average

• Propane/propylene: Up 2.3 million barrels, but 7% below average

• Total commercial petroleum inventories: Declined 0.7 million barrels

Product Demand

Demand remained relatively strong:

• Total products supplied: Averaged 19.9 million barrels/day, up 0.4% year-over-year

• Gasoline supplied: 8.7 million barrels/day, slightly down (0.4%) from last year

• Distillate fuel supplied: 3.9 million barrels/day, up a robust 12.8%

• Jet fuel supplied: Surged 13.8%, signaling increased air travel demand

Retail Fuel Prices

Prices continued their downward trend:

• Regular gasoline: Averaged $3.141/gallon, down $0.027 from last week and $0.527 below last year

• Diesel fuel: Averaged $3.534/gallon, down $0.045 week-over-week and $0.458 below year-ago levels

Looking Ahead

The report suggests a seasonal tightening in gasoline inventories even as production ramps up. Meanwhile, strong distillate and jet fuel demand reflects broader economic activity. Retail fuel prices remain considerably lower than in 2024, which could support continued consumer travel and freight movement into the summer.

Refiners appear to be preparing for peak season with increased utilization and production. However, below-average inventories in key product categories may make markets more sensitive to disruptions or spikes in demand.

Conclusion With gasoline inventories dropping and demand for jet and distillate fuels rising sharply, all eyes are on how refiners and importers respond heading into summer. Continued lower prices at the pump are welcome news for consumers, though tightening supply conditions warrant close monitoring.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2025/2025_04_23/pdf/highlights.pdf

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24 ticks potential profit in 23 seconds on 17 April 2025, analysis on futures news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 24 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 17 April 2025.

Natural gas (24 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Natural Gas Market Update: Prices Decline Despite Regional Spikes and Supply Constraints
Week Ending April 16, 2025

This past week in the natural gas market saw a notable divergence between national and regional pricing trends, slight shifts in supply and demand dynamics, and continued robust activity in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Price Trends: National Benchmarks Down, Regional Prices Mixed

Henry Hub Prices:
The benchmark Henry Hub spot price dropped by $0.22, settling at $3.21/MMBtu. Futures prices followed suit, with the May 2025 NYMEX contract falling $0.57 to $3.247/MMBtu. The 12-month strip (May 2025–April 2026) also declined $0.34 to average $3.929/MMBtu.

Regional Spot Markets:
Spot price movements were varied. While the Algonquin Citygate saw a steep $0.66 drop, the Northwest Sumas hub surged $1.01 to $1.82/MMBtu, driven by cooler temperatures and a temporary outage at the Columbia Nuclear Generating Station. Southern California's SoCal Citygate also saw a $0.23 increase, coinciding with warmer weather and elevated cooling demand.

International LNG Markets:
East Asian LNG prices fell $0.45 to $12.40/MMBtu, while Dutch TTF futures dropped $0.39 to $11.35/MMBtu. Despite these decreases, both markets remain well above their year-ago levels.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Supply:
Total U.S. natural gas supply dipped slightly by 0.1% to 106.3 Bcf/d. Dry production increased by 0.5 Bcf/d, but net imports from Canada fell 9.3%, or 0.6 Bcf/d—impacted in part by reduced flows into the Pacific Northwest.

Demand:
Overall consumption fell 6.9%, with the most significant drop in the residential/commercial sector (-14.1%). Power generation demand declined 5.4%, and industrial use slipped 1.4%. Exports to Mexico fell by 3.6%, while LNG feed gas deliveries rose modestly by 0.2 Bcf/d to 16.8 Bcf/d.

LNG Activity Remains Strong

Thirty-four LNG vessels departed U.S. terminals between April 10 and April 16, carrying a total capacity of 129 Bcf. Sabine Pass led departures with 10 vessels. Deliveries to South Louisiana terminals increased, while South Texas saw a minor decline.

Storage Levels Lag Behind Seasonal Norms

Net injections into storage were 16 Bcf—well below the five-year average of 50 Bcf and last year’s 46 Bcf. Total working stocks now sit at 1,846 Bcf, marking a 4% deficit against the five-year average and a 21% shortfall year-over-year.

Rig Count Shows Slight Rebalancing

The natural gas rig count rose by one to 97. Regional shifts included a gain in Haynesville and a drop in the Marcellus. The overall rig count (including oil and miscellaneous) fell to 583, down 34 from a year ago.

Conclusion:
Despite seasonal shifts in weather and slight production gains, the natural gas market continues to feel pressure from subdued demand and underwhelming storage injections. While regional price volatility reflects localized supply issues and temperature-driven demand, national and international markets are trending downward—pointing to a cautious short-term outlook.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2025/04_17/

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29 ticks potential profit in 29 seconds on 9 April 2025, analysis on futures news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report data

According to our analysis crude oil moved 29 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report data on 9 April 2025.

Light sweet crude oil (29 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Petroleum Market Snapshot – Week Ending April 4, 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report offers a detailed overview of refinery activity, inventory shifts, import levels, and product supply trends. The data highlights a broadly steady refining environment with subtle but important changes in stock levels and product flows.

Refinery Activity

During the week ending April 4, 2025, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day. This represents a slight increase of 69,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Refineries operated at 86.7% of operable capacity, nearly unchanged from the prior week's 86.6%, but lower than the 88.3% level recorded during the same period last year.

Production of key refined products showed a week-over-week decline. Motor gasoline production averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel oil production averaged 4.7 million barrels per day—both lower than the previous week’s figures and also below year-ago levels.

Crude Oil and Product Imports

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day, a decrease of 277,000 barrels per day from the prior week. Over the last four weeks, imports have averaged 6.1 million barrels per day, 6.9% less than during the same period last year.

Motor gasoline imports last week averaged 778,000 barrels per day, while distillate fuel imports came in at 69,000 barrels per day.

Net imports over the past four weeks averaged:

• Crude oil: 1.96 million barrels per day

• Petroleum products: -4.95 million barrels per day

• Total: -2.98 million barrels per day

Inventory Changes

Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 2.6 million barrels, reaching a total of 442.3 million barrels. This level is approximately 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 236.0 million barrels, which is in line with the five-year average. Within that category, finished gasoline stocks increased, while blending component inventories decreased.

Distillate fuel inventories dropped significantly, falling by 3.5 million barrels to 111.1 million barrels. These inventories are now about 9% below the five-year average. Propane/propylene inventories rose by 1.5 million barrels but remain 5% below the seasonal norm.

Total commercial petroleum inventories increased modestly by 1.2 million barrels over the week.

Product Supplied

The four-week average for total products supplied—a proxy for demand—was 19.6 million barrels per day, down 1.9% compared to the same period last year.

Motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down 2.8% from the same period last year. In contrast, distillate fuel oil product supplied rose by 7.3% to 3.8 million barrels per day. Jet fuel product supplied also increased, up 5.2% year-over-year.

This data reflects ongoing structural shifts in supply and demand across key fuel categories and underscores the importance of monitoring both production levels and inventory trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/archive/2025/2025_04_09/pdf/highlights.pdf

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27 ticks potential profit in 26 seconds on 3 April 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 27 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 3 April 2025.

Natural gas (27 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: Bearish Signal as Storage Builds, Prices Slip

Published April 5, 2025

Natural Gas Slips as Storage Climbs—Is a Bearish Trend Setting In?

Traders keeping a close eye on the EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report just got a fresh signal—and it’s leaning bearish.

For the week ending March 28, 2025, working gas in storage across the Lower 48 increased by 29 Bcf, bringing total inventories to 1,773 Bcf. This marks a steady build from the prior week’s 1,744 Bcf and sends a clear message: demand isn’t outpacing supply just yet.

The market reacted accordingly—natural gas futures slid 27 ticks on the report release. With warmer spring temps starting to roll in and injection season underway, traders are now weighing the potential for additional downside in the weeks ahead.

Key Takeaways from the Report:

• Total Storage: 1,773 Bcf (+29 Bcf week-over-week)

• Year-over-Year Deficit: -491 Bcf vs. March 28, 2024

• 5-Year Average Gap: -80 Bcf

• Regions Seeing Gains:

  • South Central led with a 33 Bcf build

  • Pacific and Mountain regions also saw increases

• Declines Noted:

  • East (-14 Bcf) and Midwest (-3 Bcf) showed drawdowns, but not enough to offset overall builds

What This Means for Traders:

Despite inventories still being below the 5-year average, the consistent builds—and especially the strength from the South Central region—are signaling a pivot from withdrawal season into a more storage-heavy pattern. That’s typically bearish unless unexpected weather shifts or LNG exports shake up demand.

The fact that natural gas dropped 27 ticks post-release reinforces that sentiment. Traders are likely seeing this as confirmation that supply is adequate for now.

Price Action & Market Outlook:

This 27-tick drop could be the start of a broader move if upcoming reports show continued builds. With total stocks still within the 5-year historical range, the downside may have room to run unless production slows or cooling demand picks up unexpectedly.

Watchlist for Next Week:

• April 10, 2025: Next storage report

• Weather forecasts—any late-season cold could shift the tone

• LNG export data—still a wild card for demand strength

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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21 pips potential profit in 24 seconds on 1 April 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 21 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 1 April 2025.

USDJPY (17 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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JOLTS Report Breakdown – What February 2025 Tells Traders About the Labor Market

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report dropped this morning, and while the headline summary says “little changed,” the details tell a more nuanced story for markets.

For February 2025:

• Job Openings: 7.6 million (down 194,000 month-over-month, down 877,000 year-over-year)

• Hires: 5.4 million (unchanged)

• Total Separations: 5.3 million (unchanged)

• Quits: 3.2 million (unchanged, down 273,000 year-over-year)

• Layoffs & Discharges: 1.8 million (unchanged)

Here’s what it all means from a trading lens:

1. Job Openings Decline Continues
Job openings fell by 194,000 in February following a slight upward revision to January’s number. That’s nearly 900,000 fewer openings compared to a year ago. At 4.5%, the openings rate suggests employer demand is still solid but cooling.

Market Implication:
This labor market softening supports a dovish tilt from the Fed. A slower pace of hiring demand should help temper wage inflation, giving rate-cut narratives more traction. Expect continued strength in bonds and growth equities if this trend holds.

2. Quits Rate Remains Low
At 2.0%, the quits rate hasn’t budged. Workers still aren’t leaving jobs like they were a year ago, which points to reduced job-hopping confidence and easing wage pressures.

Market Implication:
Wage growth moderation is a positive signal for inflation control. This is especially bullish for duration-sensitive assets, including tech, Treasuries, and REITs.

3. Layoffs Up in Retail and Real Estate
The total number of layoffs and discharges held steady overall, but under the hood, key sectors saw increases:

• Retail Trade: +67,000

• Real Estate and Leasing: +24,000

• Federal Government: +18,000

• Transportation/Warehousing: -42,000 (a notable decline)

Market Implication:
Weakness in retail and real estate may translate into pressure on consumer and housing stocks. But fewer layoffs in transportation could support cyclical or industrial names.

4. Small Business Labor Pressure
Firms with 1–9 employees saw a decrease in quits and other separations but an increase in layoffs/discharges—hinting at mounting strain in the small business segment.

Market Implication:
Small caps and regional banks could feel more pressure if this continues. Keep an eye on the Russell 2000 and credit-sensitive financials.

5. January Revisions Worth Watching

• Job openings revised up to 7.8M

• Hires revised down by 22K

• Quits revised down by 10K

• Layoffs revised up by 39K

Market Implication:
While the revisions are modest, they reinforce the theme of a gradually softening labor market. That may strengthen the argument for Fed cuts if this trajectory continues.

Looking Ahead
The next JOLTS report (for March) lands April 29—right before the next FOMC meeting. If labor demand and confidence continue sliding, expect the market to more aggressively price in rate cuts for mid-2025.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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