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72 pips potential profit in 91 seconds on 4 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 72 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 4 September 2024.

USDJPY (59 pips)

EURUSD (13 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Data: Insights from July 2024

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for July 2024, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the U.S. labor market. Let's dive into the key takeaways from this latest report to understand the current employment landscape better.

Job Openings Remain Steady

As of the last business day of July, the number of job openings in the U.S. remained relatively stable at 7.7 million. Although this figure reflects little change from the previous month, it represents a significant decrease of 1.1 million job openings compared to the same time last year. The job openings rate, which measures the number of job openings as a percentage of total employment plus job openings, held steady at 4.6%.

Breaking it down by sector, notable decreases in job openings were observed in:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance: Down by 187,000

  • State and Local Government, Excluding Education: Down by 101,000

  • Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities: Down by 88,000

Conversely, some sectors saw an increase in job openings:

  • Professional and Business Services: Up by 178,000

  • Federal Government: Up by 28,000

These figures highlight the shifting demand for labor across different sectors of the economy.

Hiring Activity

The number of hires in July remained largely unchanged at 5.5 million, with a hire rate of 3.5%. This stability suggests that employers are maintaining a cautious approach in their hiring practices, possibly due to economic uncertainties or sector-specific challenges.

However, within certain sectors, there were notable changes:

  • Accommodation and Food Services: Hires increased by 156,000, indicating a robust demand for workers in this sector, potentially driven by the continued recovery in travel and dining.

  • Federal Government: Hires decreased by 8,000, reflecting a slowdown in recruitment activities.

Separations: Understanding the Fluctuations

Total separations, which encompass quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, increased to 5.4 million in July, up by 336,000 from the previous month. The total separations rate, however, remained relatively stable at 3.4%.

Quits

Quits, often seen as a measure of workers' confidence in their ability to leave jobs for better opportunities, were unchanged at 3.3 million in July. However, this figure is down by 338,000 from July 2023, indicating a potential decrease in employee mobility or willingness to change jobs.

There was an increase in quits within the Information sector, rising by 16,000. This could signal that workers in this industry feel more confident about their employment prospects or are exploring new opportunities.

Layoffs and Discharges

The number of layoffs and discharges, representing involuntary separations initiated by employers, remained steady at 1.8 million, with a rate of 1.1%. Specific sectors did experience increases:

  • Accommodation and Food Services: Up by 75,000

  • Finance and Insurance: Up by 21,000

These increases suggest that while some sectors are expanding, others are adjusting their workforce needs, potentially due to shifting market conditions or internal restructuring efforts.

Other Separations

"Other separations," which include retirements, deaths, disabilities, and transfers to different locations within the same company, increased to 381,000, up by 71,000 in July. This uptick could reflect demographic shifts or changes in company policies regarding retirements and transfers.

Trends by Establishment Size

The JOLTS report also breaks down data by establishment size, offering a glimpse into how businesses of different sizes are navigating the labor market:

  • Small Establishments (1 to 9 employees): These businesses saw a decrease in the quits rate and an increase in the layoffs and discharges rate, indicating potential challenges in retaining staff or a more dynamic restructuring process.

  • Large Establishments (5,000 or more employees): These larger entities experienced little to no change across various metrics, suggesting a stable employment environment within big businesses.

Revisions to June 2024 Data

It's worth noting that the BLS revised its June 2024 data, with job openings revised down by 274,000 to 7.9 million and hires revised down by 93,000 to 5.2 million. These revisions underscore the evolving nature of labor market data, as new information becomes available and seasonal factors are recalibrated.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS release, which will cover data for August 2024, is scheduled for October 1, 2024. As we await further data, these figures from July offer a snapshot of a labor market in flux, characterized by sector-specific shifts and a cautious approach to hiring and separations. Employers and job seekers alike will benefit from staying informed about these trends as they navigate the current economic landscape.

Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of labor market conditions in the coming months!

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

Start futures #forex fx news #trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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47 pips potential profit in 56 seconds on 29 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 29 August 2024.

USDJPY (37 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Economy Shows Strong Growth in Q2 2024: A Closer Look at the Latest GDP and Corporate Profits Data

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the "second" estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024, revealing a stronger economic performance than initially reported. The updated figures show a robust annual growth rate of 3.0% for real GDP, marking a notable acceleration from the 1.4% growth observed in the first quarter of the year. This positive momentum underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst various global and domestic challenges.

Key Highlights from the Second Quarter GDP Report

  1. Real GDP Growth: The real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, up from the "advance" estimate of 2.8%. This revision is based on more comprehensive data, particularly reflecting stronger-than-expected consumer spending. In comparison, the GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 1.4%, highlighting a significant acceleration.

  2. Components of GDP: The growth in GDP was driven primarily by increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. However, these gains were partially offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment. Additionally, imports, which subtract from the GDP calculation, increased during the quarter.

  3. Current-Dollar GDP: On a current-dollar basis, GDP increased by 5.5% or $383.2 billion in Q2, reaching a total level of $28.65 trillion. This is an upward revision of $23.2 billion from the previous estimate.

  4. Price Indices: The price index for gross domestic purchases rose by 2.4%, slightly up from the prior estimate of 2.3%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, increased by 2.5%, though this is a slight downward revision from the earlier estimate of 2.6%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE price index increased by 2.8%.

Insights on Personal Income and Savings

  • Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income saw an increase of $233.6 billion in Q2, which is a downward revision of $4.0 billion from the earlier estimate. This rise was primarily driven by higher compensation and personal current transfer receipts.

  • Disposable Personal Income: Disposable personal income, after taxes and adjustments, increased by $183.0 billion or 3.6%, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income, which accounts for inflation, grew by 1.0%.

  • Personal Saving Rate: The personal saving rate, defined as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was revised down to 3.3% from the previous estimate of 3.5%.

Corporate Profits Rebound in Q2 2024

A significant highlight of the report is the rebound in corporate profits in Q2 2024. Profits from current production increased by $57.6 billion, following a decline of $47.1 billion in Q1. This marks a substantial recovery and suggests improved profitability among U.S. businesses.

  • Sectoral Performance: Profits of domestic financial corporations increased by $46.4 billion, though this is a deceleration from the $65.0 billion increase in Q1. Nonfinancial corporations, on the other hand, saw profits rise by $29.2 billion, reversing a decline of $114.5 billion in the previous quarter. However, profits from the rest of the world decreased by $18.0 billion, contrasting with a $2.3 billion increase in Q1.

Understanding the Revisions and Future Releases

The upward revision in the GDP estimate for Q2 was mainly due to stronger consumer spending, offset by downward adjustments in other areas like nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and government spending. The BEA will continue to refine these estimates as more data becomes available.

Looking ahead, the BEA will release the third estimate of GDP and revised corporate profits for Q2 2024 on September 26, 2024. This will coincide with the annual update of the National Economic Accounts, which includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, and gross domestic income.

Conclusion

The latest GDP figures for Q2 2024 indicate a resilient and growing U.S. economy, bolstered by robust consumer spending and a rebound in corporate profits. While certain sectors, such as residential fixed investment, have shown weakness, the overall economic landscape appears positive. As we await further data and the next round of estimates, these findings provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year.

Stay tuned for more updates as the BEA releases additional data in the coming weeks.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-second

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1024 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 26 events in the second quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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1024 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 26 events in the second quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 1024 pips/ticks profit out of the following 26 events in the second quarter of 2024 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2023 was 13,607 pips/ticks.

Q2 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q2 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 21 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

Analyzing Key Economic Events and Their Impact on Financial Markets (April-June 2024)

As we progress through 2024, several key economic events have continued to influence financial markets globally. The period from April to June 2024 has been particularly eventful, with significant data releases that impacted currency and commodity markets. In this post, we will explore some of these critical events, their market impact, and what they might signify for the broader economic landscape.

April 2024: Volatility in the Markets

April began with the release of the DOE Natural Gas Storage Report on April 4, which saw a movement of 10 ticks. This report, which measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week, often influences natural gas prices. The relatively small tick movement suggests a modest reaction from traders, likely due to market expectations aligning closely with the actual figures.

On April 5, the Canada Labour Force Survey caused a 46-pip movement in the CAD/USD pair. This report is a significant indicator of economic health, as it provides insight into employment levels. The notable movement suggests that the data either exceeded or fell short of market expectations, leading to a substantial adjustment in the value of the Canadian dollar.

April 10 was particularly volatile, with two significant releases: the US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI), which moved the market by 57 pips, and the DOE Petroleum Status Report, which shifted the market by 38 ticks. The CPI is a critical measure of inflation, and a higher-than-expected figure likely led to speculation about future Federal Reserve actions, causing the US dollar to react accordingly. Similarly, the Petroleum Status Report's impact on oil prices demonstrates the sensitivity of energy markets to inventory changes.

Mid-April to May 2024: Inflation and Economic Growth in Focus

The US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) on April 11 moved the market by 35 pips, reflecting concerns about inflation at the wholesale level. The subsequent DOE Natural Gas Storage Report on the same day moved the market by 21 ticks, further impacting energy prices.

The US Retail Sales report on April 15 saw a 39-pip movement, indicating how consumer spending, a major driver of the US economy, is trending. This data often influences investor sentiment about the health of the economy.

In the latter half of April, the Sweden Labour Force Survey on April 24 caused a significant 67-pip movement in the SEK, reflecting how closely traders watch employment data for clues about economic strength in the region. On the same day, Canada's Retail Sales report moved the market by 13 pips, underscoring its relative importance to the Canadian economy.

As we moved into May, several key reports again captured market attention. The US BLS Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) on May 3 saw a 77-pip movement, as traders reacted to the latest jobs data, a critical indicator of economic health. On May 9, the DOE Natural Gas Storage Report caused a 23-tick movement, continuing the trend of energy market sensitivity.

Mid-May brought significant volatility with the US Retail Sales and CPI data on May 15, causing a substantial 104-pip movement. The simultaneous release of these reports provided a comprehensive view of consumer behavior and inflation, leading to significant market adjustments. The DOE Petroleum Status Report on the same day moved the market by 33 ticks, further highlighting the impact of energy data on trading.

June 2024: Inflation and Employment Data Continue to Drive Markets

June started with the DOE Natural Gas Storage Report on June 6, moving the market by 40 ticks, followed by the US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) on June 7, which caused a 58-pip movement. These reports set the tone for the month, focusing on energy prices and employment.

The US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) on June 12 moved the market by 62 pips, showing the continued market sensitivity to inflation data. On June 13, the US Jobless Claims and PPI data caused a 44-pip movement, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and employment.

Finally, the Sweden CPI on June 14 caused a significant 81-pip movement in the SEK, underscoring the importance of inflation data in influencing currency values.

Conclusion

The period from April to June 2024 has been marked by significant economic data releases, each driving notable movements in the financial markets. These events highlight the interconnectedness of global economies and the importance of key indicators such as inflation, employment, and retail sales in shaping market expectations and reactions. As we move forward, keeping a close eye on these releases will be crucial for investors and traders looking to navigate the complexities of the financial markets.

Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor these and other key economic events throughout the year.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

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38 ticks potential profit in 46 seconds on 15 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 38 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 15 August 2024.

Natural gas (38 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: Slight Decline in Working Gas Stocks Amid Seasonal Variations

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending August 9, 2024. The report indicates a slight decrease in the total working gas in storage across the Lower 48 states, with key regional variations highlighting the ongoing dynamics in the natural gas market.

Key Figures from the Report:

  • Total Working Gas: As of August 9, 2024, the total working gas in underground storage was 3,264 billion cubic feet (Bcf), reflecting a net decrease of 6 Bcf from the previous week’s level of 3,270 Bcf.

  • Year-over-Year Comparison: The current storage level is 209 Bcf higher than the same period last year, marking a 6.8% increase. Moreover, it is 375 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,889 Bcf, a significant 13.0% surplus.

  • Regional Insights:

    • East: The East region saw a modest increase of 4 Bcf, bringing its total to 723 Bcf. This is 1.5% higher than last year and 9.9% above the five-year average.

    • Midwest: The Midwest experienced the largest net increase, with 15 Bcf added, raising its total to 869 Bcf. This represents a 7.7% increase from last year and a 13.6% rise compared to the five-year average.

    • Mountain: The Mountain region’s storage grew by 3 Bcf to 260 Bcf, a remarkable 30.0% higher than last year and 43.6% above the five-year average.

    • Pacific: Contrarily, the Pacific region saw a net decrease of 2 Bcf, bringing its storage down to 287 Bcf. Despite this decline, the region’s storage remains 20.6% higher than last year and 9.1% above the five-year average.

    • South Central: The South Central region experienced the most significant decline, with a 27 Bcf drop in storage, bringing the total to 1,125 Bcf. This region includes salt and nonsalt storage facilities, which saw decreases of 14 Bcf and 12 Bcf, respectively. Despite the decrease, the region’s storage is still 2.6% higher than last year and 10.2% above the five-year average.

Analysis and Implications:

The slight overall decrease of 6 Bcf in working gas stocks this week can be attributed to seasonal fluctuations and regional demand variations. The data reveals a complex picture, where some regions, like the Midwest and Mountain, have seen substantial increases, while others, particularly the South Central region, have experienced notable declines.

The South Central region’s significant reduction is noteworthy, as it typically plays a critical role in balancing supply and demand, particularly during the high-demand periods in the winter. The drop in this region may reflect current consumption trends or changes in production patterns.

Conversely, the increases in the Midwest and Mountain regions suggest a buildup of reserves in preparation for the upcoming winter season. The high levels in the Mountain region, in particular, may indicate strategic storage aimed at mitigating any potential supply disruptions or price volatility.

The overall surplus of 375 Bcf above the five-year average provides a buffer that could help stabilize prices and supply during periods of high demand. However, the variations between regions underscore the importance of monitoring these trends closely, as they could impact local markets differently.

Looking Ahead:

As we approach the end of summer and transition into the cooler months, the trends in natural gas storage will be crucial for forecasting winter energy markets. The current surplus is a positive indicator, but continued monitoring of regional storage levels and production rates will be essential to ensure market stability.

Energy traders, policymakers, and consumers should keep an eye on upcoming reports, especially as they may reflect the early impacts of seasonal demand increases and potential weather-related disruptions.

Stay tuned for next week’s report, which will be released on August 22, 2024, to see how these trends evolve as we move closer to the high-demand winter season.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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84 pips potential profit in 53 seconds on 15 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 84 pips on US Retail Sales data on 15 August 2024.

USDJPY (63 pips)

EURUSD (21 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

July 2024 Retail and Food Services Sales Show Solid Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its advance estimates for retail and food services sales in July 2024, showcasing a steady rise in consumer spending. Despite ongoing economic uncertainties, the report reveals encouraging signs for the retail sector, with both month-over-month and year-over-year growth exceeding expectations.

Key Highlights:

  • Total Sales: U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024 were estimated at $709.7 billion. This marks a 1.0% increase from June 2024 and a 2.7% rise compared to July 2023.

  • Three-Month Comparison: Sales for the May through July 2024 period climbed by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2023, indicating a sustained upward trend in consumer spending.

  • Retail Trade: Sales in retail trade grew by 1.1% from June 2024 and by 2.6% year-over-year. This sector continues to be a vital component of the overall economy, reflecting consumer confidence and purchasing power.

  • Nonstore Retailers: Nonstore retailers, which include online shopping platforms, saw a significant 6.7% increase from July 2023. This growth underscores the ongoing shift towards e-commerce and the importance of digital channels in modern retail.

  • Food Services and Drinking Places: This category experienced a 3.4% rise from July 2023, highlighting the resilience of the hospitality sector as it continues to recover from the impacts of the pandemic.

Revised Data for June 2024

Interestingly, the previously reported data for June 2024 was slightly adjusted. Initially, the change from May to June was reported as virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent). However, this has been revised to reflect a modest decline of 0.2% (±0.2 percent). While this revision is minor, it points to the importance of accurate data collection and analysis in understanding economic trends.

What This Means for the Economy

The July 2024 retail and food services sales figures suggest that despite ongoing challenges, such as inflationary pressures and fluctuating consumer confidence, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. The steady increase in sales, particularly in nonstore retail and food services, indicates that consumers are still willing to spend, especially in areas that offer convenience and experiences.

This growth is a positive indicator for businesses across the retail spectrum, from traditional brick-and-mortar stores to online platforms. The continued recovery in the food services sector is particularly noteworthy, as it reflects consumers' increasing comfort with dining out and engaging in social activities.

As we move forward, it will be essential to monitor how these trends evolve, especially in the face of potential economic headwinds. However, for now, the data from July 2024 provides a reason for cautious optimism in the retail and food services sectors.

Conclusion

The latest advance estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau paint a picture of steady growth in consumer spending across retail and food services in July 2024. With a 1.0% month-over-month increase and a 2.7% rise compared to the previous year, the data suggests that the U.S. economy remains on a solid footing. As businesses continue to navigate an evolving economic landscape, these figures offer a glimmer of hope and a sign that the retail sector, in particular, is adapting and thriving.

Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as we continue to track these critical economic indicators.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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456 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 6 events in July 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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456 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 6 events in July 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 456 pips / ticks profit out of the following 6 events in July 2024. The potential performance in 2023 was 13,607 pips / ticks.

July 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance July 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 5 minutes! (preparation time not included)

July 2024: A Month of Significant Economic Indicators and Reports

July 2024 has been a bustling month for economic observers, packed with key reports and indicators that have provided insights into the global economy's health and direction. Let’s take a closer look at some of the major economic data released this month, ranging from consumer price indices to agricultural and energy reports.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – 11 July 2024

The month kicked off with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releasing the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed an increase of 32 basis points. This movement in CPI is critical as it indicates the inflation rate, influencing Federal Reserve policies and impacting consumer purchasing power. A rise of 32 pips suggests a modest uptick in inflation, possibly reflecting increased consumer spending as the economy continues to recover.

Sweden Consumer Price Index (CPI) – 12 July 2024

Following the U.S. data, Sweden reported its CPI with a significant rise of 272 pips. This considerable jump is an indicator of potentially higher inflationary pressures within the Swedish economy. Such a sharp increase could prompt Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, to consider tightening monetary policy to curb inflation.

USDA WASDE Report – 12 July 2024

On the same day, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which saw a movement of 40 ticks. This report is pivotal for understanding global agricultural markets, affecting everything from commodity prices to stock levels. The data provided can influence global food prices and have a significant impact on economies heavily reliant on agriculture.

U.S. Retail Sales – 16 July 2024

Mid-month, the focus shifted to consumer behavior with the release of U.S. Retail Sales data, showing a movement of 40 pips. This report is a key barometer of consumer spending and can be a leading indicator of the overall economic performance. An increase of 40 pips suggests that consumer confidence remains strong, which is vital for sustaining economic growth.

DOE Natural Gas Storage Reports – 18 and 25 July 2024

The energy sector also had its share of the spotlight with the Department of Energy’s Natural Gas Storage Reports released on the 18th and 25th of July, showing movements of 32 and 40 ticks, respectively. These reports are crucial for understanding natural gas supply levels which directly impact natural gas prices and subsequently, energy costs for consumers and businesses.

Implications and Outlook

The data released in July 2024 paints a diverse picture of the global economic landscape. From inflationary trends in the U.S. and Sweden to consumer behavior and energy supply, these reports provide valuable insights that can help policymakers, investors, and businesses make informed decisions.

As we move forward, it will be important to monitor how these trends develop, especially in light of ongoing global economic challenges and opportunities. Keeping an eye on these indicators will help anticipate potential economic shifts and prepare for future impacts.

Stay tuned for more updates and analyses as we continue to navigate through the complexities of the global economy.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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90 pips potential profit in 51 seconds on 2 August 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 90 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 2 August 2024.

USDJPY (73 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Navigating Through the Tides: U.S. Employment Situation in July 2024

In the ever-evolving landscape of the U.S. labor market, July 2024 presented a nuanced picture of growth and challenges, as detailed in the latest release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The month saw the unemployment rate nudge up to 4.3 percent, alongside modest job growth, indicating both resilience and areas of concern in the economy. Here’s an in-depth look at the dynamics shaping the employment situation.

The Rise in Unemployment

July's slight uptick in unemployment to 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent in June, resulted in 352,000 more individuals being classified as unemployed. This increase in unemployment rates, especially notable among adult men and White populations, paints a picture of an economy that is still recalibrating post-pandemic and other macroeconomic pressures. This rate is significantly higher compared to last year's 3.5 percent, suggesting a slow but uncertain recovery path.

Sector-Specific Insights

The payroll data offers a glimpse into where the growth is happening and which sectors are lagging:

  • Health Care: This sector added 55,000 jobs, maintaining a robust growth pattern, particularly in home health care services and hospitals. This is indicative of ongoing demand in the health services industry.

  • Construction and Transportation: Both sectors continued to show resilience with steady job additions, which align with broader economic activities and infrastructural developments.

  • Information Sector: In contrast, the information sector shed 20,000 jobs, highlighting the volatility in tech and media industries amidst shifting business models and technological disruptions.

Part-Time Work and Economic Reasons

An interesting facet of the July report is the rise in individuals working part-time for economic reasons, which jumped by 346,000 to 4.6 million. This increase suggests that while jobs are available, they may not fully meet the needs or qualifications of job seekers, or that businesses are hesitating to commit to full-time hires amid economic uncertainties.

Labor Force Dynamics

The labor force participation rate stood unchanged at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio also held steady. However, the number of people not in the labor force but wanting a job increased notably by 366,000, reaching 5.6 million. These figures underscore a complex scenario where many are on the sidelines of the job market, possibly due to mismatches in job opportunities or other barriers to employment.

Earnings and Work Hours

Average hourly earnings saw a modest increase, suggesting mild wage pressures. The average workweek decreased slightly, which might reflect adjustments in business operations or shifts in employment from full-time to part-time roles.

Forward Look

The modest job growth and the rise in unemployment rate in July serve as a reminder of the fragile balance in the labor market. As businesses navigate through economic headwinds and policy changes, the coming months will be crucial in shaping the trajectory of recovery and growth.

As we look towards the August report, due to be released in early September, stakeholders from policymakers to investors, and everyday citizens will be keen on understanding whether these trends are a temporary blip or a sign of more profound shifts in the U.S. economy.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Start forex fx futures news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US economic and commodity data.

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40 ticks potential profit in 26 seconds on 25 July 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 40 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 25 July 2024.

Natural gas (40 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Latest Trends in Natural Gas Storage

In the most recent Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on July 25, 2024, covering data up to the week ending July 19, 2024, we observe a detailed overview of the natural gas inventories across the United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides a comprehensive breakdown that not only informs stakeholders but also hints at broader economic implications.

Key Findings from the Report

  • Total Working Gas Increase: The total working gas in the underground storage was reported at 3,231 billion cubic feet (Bcf), marking an increase of 22 Bcf from the previous week. This suggests a slightly higher than expected accumulation, considering the week-on-week data.

  • Yearly and Historical Comparisons: When compared to the same period last year, current stocks are higher by 249 Bcf. Moreover, when measured against the five-year average from 2019 to 2023, stocks are up by 456 Bcf. These figures indicate a robust stockpiling activity that outpaces both last year’s figures and the longer-term average.

  • Regional Breakdown:

    • East: The East showed an increase to 697 Bcf, up from 686 Bcf the previous week.

    • Midwest: Stocks rose to 827 Bcf from 814 Bcf, showcasing a substantial net change.

    • Mountain: This region’s stocks saw a smaller increase, rising modestly from 248 Bcf to 251 Bcf.

    • Pacific: Remained steady at 289 Bcf, indicating stability in this region’s gas storage.

    • South Central: Interestingly, this region reported a slight decrease, down 6 Bcf from the previous week.

  • Coefficient of Variation and Standard Error: The coefficient of variation, an indicator of the variability relative to the mean of the dataset, remains low across the board, suggesting that the storage volumes are not prone to large swings, thus providing some stability in supply expectations.

Implications for Markets and Policy

The above-average stock levels relative to both last year and the five-year average can have several implications:

  • Market Impact: Higher storage levels typically moderate natural gas prices due to increased supply security. This could influence everything from residential heating costs to the operational costs for industries reliant on natural gas.

  • Policy Considerations: With an ongoing robust supply, policy makers might look at opportunities to adjust export levels or reconsider strategies for sustainable energy utilization.

Conclusion

As we head towards the latter part of 2024, the natural gas storage levels are demonstrating a significant cushion compared to historical levels. This robustness in natural gas storage not only helps in stabilizing prices but also plays a critical role in energy security during peak demand periods like winter. Going forward, stakeholders will be keenly watching the trends to gauge the potential economic and environmental impacts of these stock levels.

For more detailed insights and implications, stakeholders are encouraged to stay tuned for the next release on August 1, 2024, which will further shape the understanding of natural gas trends and strategic responses.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Update - July 18, 2024

The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides an insightful snapshot into the state of natural gas storage across the United States as of the week ending July 12, 2024. Let’s dive into the numbers and understand what they signify for the energy sector and, more broadly, for the economy.

Current Natural Gas Storage Figures

As per the EIA report released today, total working gas in underground storage stood at 3,209 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of July 12, 2024. This represents a slight increase of 10 Bcf from the previous week. When compared to the figures from the same time last year, the current storage levels are 250 Bcf higher. Moreover, they surpass the five-year average (2019-2023) by 465 Bcf. This indicates a robust inventory that exceeds typical seasonal levels.

Here's a regional breakdown of the storage data:

  • East: Current stocks are at 686 Bcf, showing a minor weekly increase and being notably higher than both last year’s and the five-year average figures.

  • Midwest: Stocks increased by 14 Bcf over the week, totaling 814 Bcf. This region also exhibits a strong year-on-year growth and significantly outpaces the five-year average.

  • Mountain: Storage stands at 248 Bcf, with a weekly increase and dramatic increases over past figures, reflecting perhaps the most substantial relative growth among the regions.

  • Pacific: Stable week-over-week at 289 Bcf but substantially higher than previous year and five-year averages.

  • South Central: This region saw a decrease in storage, mainly in the salt facilities, which might indicate specific regional dynamics such as increased withdrawals or decreased injections.

Analysis

The overall increase in natural gas stocks can be attributed to a combination of factors including mild weather reducing heating demand, efficient production rates, and possibly strategic injections anticipating future demand. The substantial surplus relative to both last year and the five-year average provides a cushion that might help in stabilizing natural gas prices, offering some relief to consumers and industries reliant on natural gas.

However, the regional variations highlight different dynamics possibly driven by local weather conditions, demand fluctuations, and infrastructural factors. For instance, the notable increase in the Mountain region might reflect specific local market conditions or response strategies to anticipated regional demand.

Market Implications

Higher-than-average gas storage levels typically exert downward pressure on natural gas prices due to the law of supply and demand. Investors and market analysts closely watch these figures as they can influence not only energy markets but also broader economic conditions. Lower natural gas prices can reduce energy costs for industries and households, contributing to lower overall inflationary pressures in the economy.

Looking Ahead

The next update is scheduled for July 25, 2024. Market participants will be keen to see if the trend of building inventories continues or if there are shifts in the pattern that could suggest changes in market dynamics. Meanwhile, stakeholders would do well to monitor weather forecasts and any geopolitical developments that could impact energy markets.

In conclusion, this week's report underscores a strong position for natural gas storage, which could bode well for maintaining energy security and economic stability in the upcoming months. As always, it will be important to monitor these trends closely to adapt to the ever-evolving energy landscape.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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USDJPY (29 pips)

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Analyzing the Latest U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales Data for June 2024

In the latest release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the advance estimates for retail and food services sales in June 2024 presented a mixed bag of results that offer insights into consumer spending habits and economic trends. According to the report, total sales amounted to $704.3 billion, showing no significant change from May 2024 but reflecting a moderate increase of 2.3 percent from June 2023.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

The data, adjusted for seasonal variations and differences in trading days and holidays, provides a clear picture of the market's stability and growth over the past year. Despite the static growth from the previous month, there is a positive uptrend when comparing the data year-over-year. From April to June 2024, total sales saw an increase of 2.5 percent from the same period last year, indicating a steady rise in consumer expenditure.

Interestingly, the April to May 2024 data was revised upward, from a marginal 0.1 percent increase to a more noticeable 0.3 percent. This revision suggests that consumer spending has been slightly more robust than initially estimated.

Sector-Specific Trends

The retail trade sector specifically showed a minor decline of 0.1 percent from May 2024, yet it experienced a 2.0 percent increase compared to last year. This suggests a slow but steady recovery and growth over the long term. Nonstore retailers, which include online and e-commerce platforms, notably outperformed other categories with an impressive 8.9 percent increase from June 2023. This highlights the continuing shift towards online shopping and the strength of digital marketplaces.

On the other hand, food services and drinking places also saw a significant uptick, with sales rising by 4.4 percent from the previous year. This increase may be indicative of a rebound in dining out as consumer confidence in public health safety grows and social restrictions related to the pandemic continue to ease.

What This Means for the Economy

The mixed signals from the June 2024 data reflect the complex interplay of economic recovery, inflation concerns, and shifts in consumer behavior. The stability in month-over-month sales juxtaposed with the annual increases suggests that while the market is not booming, it is resilient amid economic uncertainties.

For investors and business owners, these trends underscore the importance of adjusting to the growing online consumer base and the recovering food service industry. Businesses that can navigate the balance between digital and physical sales channels are likely to see continued success.

Final Thoughts

As we move further into the second half of 2024, all eyes will be on how these trends develop, particularly in the context of economic policies and global market conditions. Will the momentum in nonstore retail and food services continue? How will macroeconomic factors like inflation and employment rates affect consumer spending?

These are critical questions for market analysts, investors, and policymakers as they plan for the coming months. Keeping a close eye on these trends will be key to understanding and anticipating the needs of the U.S. consumer in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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