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44 pips potential profit in 42 seconds on 13 June 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 44 pips on US Jobless Claims and US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 13 June 2024.

USDJPY (29 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the Dip: A Closer Look at the May 2024 Producer Price Index Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May 2024 presents some intriguing shifts in the economic landscape. The report, detailing the movements in prices from a producer's perspective, shows a decline in final demand by 0.2 percent. This is particularly notable following a 0.5 percent increase in April and a slight decrease in March. Over the past 12 months, however, the index for final demand has advanced 2.2 percent on an unadjusted basis.

Key Highlights from the May 2024 PPI Report

Decline in Final Demand Goods: The report indicates a significant 0.8 percent drop in final demand goods, marking the largest decline since October 2023. A major contributor to this decrease was the energy sector, which plummeted by 4.8 percent. This sharp decline in energy prices, particularly a 7.1-percent decrease in gasoline prices, heavily influenced the overall drop in goods prices.

Stability in Services: In contrast to goods, prices for final demand services remained unchanged in May, after a rise in the previous month. Within the services category, trade services and services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing saw minor increases of 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. However, transportation and warehousing services experienced a notable drop of 1.4 percent.

Intermediate Demand: Intermediate demand also saw significant shifts, with processed goods for intermediate demand falling by 1.5 percent, driven largely by an 8.0 percent decline in processed energy goods. On the other hand, unprocessed goods for intermediate demand declined by 1.8 percent, largely due to a 6.6 percent drop in unprocessed energy materials.

Economic Implications

The decline in the PPI for May underscores several key economic trends and potential implications:

  1. Energy Sector Volatility: The substantial decrease in energy prices, especially gasoline and diesel, suggests volatility in the energy sector, which could be due to fluctuating global oil prices or changes in domestic production and inventory levels.

  2. Inflationary Pressures: While final demand goods prices have fallen, the unchanged prices in services indicate sustained demand and potentially ongoing inflationary pressures in parts of the economy not directly impacted by energy costs.

  3. Sector-Specific Impacts: The mixed performance across different sectors highlights the uneven recovery and challenges facing various industries. For example, while the food and alcohol retailing segments saw price increases, airline services and machinery and vehicle wholesaling faced declines.

Looking Ahead

As businesses and policymakers digest these figures, the PPI provides crucial insights into the pressures faced by producers which can eventually trickle down to consumer prices. The stability in services despite the drop in goods prices may cushion the overall economic impact in the short term. However, the ongoing volatility in energy prices remains a wild card that could influence future economic conditions.

In conclusion, the May PPI report serves as a vital barometer for economic health, offering a glimpse into the dynamics affecting producers that could shape policy decisions and market strategies in the coming months. With the next PPI release scheduled for July 12, 2024, all eyes will be on whether these trends continue, stabilize, or reverse, setting the stage for mid-year economic forecasts.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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62 pips potential profit in 45 seconds on 12 June 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 62 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 June 2024.

USDJPY (37 pips)

EURUSD (25 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Consumer Price Index for May 2024: Insights and Implications

The recent release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May 2024 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics offers a detailed glimpse into the economic trends and consumer pricing landscape. Notably, the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) remained unchanged in May, after a modest increase of 0.3 percent in April. Over the past 12 months, the overall index has seen an increase of 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Key Highlights from the May 2024 CPI Data:

  • Stable Consumer Prices: The overall stability in the CPI-U in May contrasts with the previous month's rise, reflecting a balance between sectors where prices increased and those that saw declines.

  • Shelter Costs Continue to Climb: The shelter index rose by 0.4 percent, maintaining the same growth rate for four consecutive months, which indicates a persistent upward pressure on housing costs.

  • Divergence in Food Prices: While the overall food index nudged up by 0.1 percent, significant variation was observed within this category. The food away from home index increased by 0.4 percent, in contrast to the unchanged status of the food at home index.

  • Decrease in Energy Prices: The energy index decreased by 2.0 percent in May, driven by a substantial 3.6 percent drop in the gasoline index. This decline helped offset some of the rising costs in other areas.

Detailed Analysis:

  1. Sector-Specific Trends:

    • Energy: The sharp decline in gasoline prices significantly impacted the energy sector, which saw an overall decline despite previous increases. This decrease in energy costs, while beneficial in curbing overall inflation, raises questions about the volatility in energy markets.

    • Food: The modest increase in the food index is reflective of a relatively stable food pricing environment, although variations exist between dining out and eating at home, with the former experiencing higher inflation.

    • Healthcare and Education: Both sectors saw increases, with medical care rising by 0.5 percent in May and education by 0.4 percent, indicating ongoing cost pressures in these essential services.

  2. Economic Implications:

    • The stability in the CPI indicates a balancing act between rising and falling sectors, suggesting that while certain costs continue to rise, overall inflation pressures are being moderated by declines in other areas like energy.

    • The persistent increase in shelter costs is a concern for long-term affordability and living standards, particularly in urban areas where CPI measurements are most applicable.

  3. What to Watch:

    • Future Energy Prices: Given the volatility in the energy sector, future reports should be closely monitored to gauge whether May’s decrease in energy prices is a temporary dip or the start of a longer-term trend.

    • Food and Shelter Costs: As these are significant components of the CPI and directly impact consumer budgets, ongoing increases could pose challenges for consumer spending power.

Conclusion:

The May 2024 CPI report highlights the complex interplay of various economic factors influencing consumer prices. With the index for all items less food and energy rising modestly, it’s crucial for policymakers and consumers alike to monitor these trends closely, particularly as they relate to the cost of living and inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, the next CPI release scheduled for July will provide further insights into whether these trends are solidifying, offering a clearer picture of the economic direction in the second half of 2024. For now, consumers and analysts alike would do well to keep an eye on the evolving economic landscape, especially in sectors like energy, food, and housing, which are crucial to everyday financial planning and policy formulation.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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1932 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 20 events in the first quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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1932 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 20 events in the first quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 1932 pips/ticks profit out of the following 20 events in the first quarter of 2024 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2023 was 13,607 pips/ticks.

Q1 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q1 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 20 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

Understanding Market Movements: Key Economic Reports from Early 2024

In the world of finance, market movements are significantly driven by economic reports that reflect the underlying health and trends within an economy. Over the first quarter of 2024, several key reports have had noticeable impacts on financial markets. Let's delve into some of these critical economic indicators and their implications.

January 2024: A Busy Start to the Year

The year kicked off with several high-profile reports, starting with the US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) on January 3, which led to a 28 pip movement in the forex markets. This report often provides insights into the labor market's dynamics beyond simple unemployment figures, reflecting how businesses are responding to economic conditions through hiring or layoffs.

Shortly thereafter, the US Employment Situation Report (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) on January 5 showed a 74 pip movement. Non-farm payrolls are a crucial metric for assessing new jobs created in the US, excluding agricultural employment, and often guide the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

Mid-January featured the USDA WASDE and USDA Grain Stocks reports, which shifted commodity markets by 48 ticks, highlighting the sensitivity of agricultural markets to supply and demand insights.

The month closed with the US GDP report on January 25, moving markets by 48 pips. GDP growth rate is a broad measure of economic activity and health, influencing investor sentiment and policy decisions.

February 2024: Continued Economic Insights

In February, attention remained on the labor market with the US Employment Situation Report on the 2nd, causing a significant 95 pip movement. Following this, other reports like the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook and Retail Sales on February 15, and the Sweden Consumer Price Index on February 19, which moved by 35 and 51 pips respectively, provided insights into economic conditions in different sectors and regions.

March 2024: Diverse Global Indicators

March brought a variety of reports from different countries. Notably, the Turkey interest rate decision on March 21 led to a dramatic 1186 pip movement, underscoring the volatile economic conditions and investor sensitivity in emerging markets.

In the US, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook on March 21 and the Consumer Price Index on March 12, which moved the market by 12 and 20 pips respectively, continued to paint a picture of the economic landscape. Manufacturing and inflation are key areas watched by investors for signs of economic overheating or undercooling.

Implications for Investors and Policymakers

These economic reports are essential for investors trying to predict future market movements and for policymakers aiming to adjust economic policy effectively. High volatility in response to such reports indicates investor sensitivity to new information, reflecting the ongoing adjustments in asset prices as new data becomes available.

Conclusion

The early months of 2024 have provided a plethora of data, from labor market conditions and manufacturing sentiment to inflation rates and GDP growth, each influencing market dynamics in significant ways. As we move forward, understanding these indicators will be crucial for navigating the financial landscape, making informed investment decisions, and anticipating future economic policies.

For investors and market watchers, keeping an eye on these reports will be vital for staying ahead in the fast-paced world of finance. As always, a nuanced understanding of these indicators, combined with a strategic approach to market analysis, will be key to achieving success in the turbulent waters of financial markets.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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58 pips potential profit in 39 seconds on 7 June 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 58 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 7 June 2024.

USDJPY (38 pips)

EURUSD (20 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the May 2024 U.S. Employment Report: Trends and Implications

The latest Employment Situation Summary released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides an insightful glimpse into the current state of the nation's job market as of May 2024. A robust addition of 272,000 jobs indicates continuing growth across multiple sectors, maintaining a stable unemployment rate of 4.0 percent. This post delves into the details of the report, highlighting key trends and what they might mean for the economy and job seekers.

Key Highlights from the May 2024 Report

  • Continued Growth in Key Sectors: The health care, government, leisure and hospitality, and professional, scientific, and technical services sectors led job additions for the month. Notably, health care saw an addition of 68,000 jobs, aligning with its average monthly gain, signaling ongoing robust demand in this sector.

  • Stable Unemployment Rates: The unemployment rate held steady at 4.0 percent, with little change across major worker groups. Adult men and women posted unemployment rates of 3.8 percent and 3.4 percent respectively, while the unemployment rate for teenagers was significantly higher at 12.3 percent.

  • Part-Time and Marginal Attachments: Approximately 4.4 million individuals were employed part-time for economic reasons, unchanged from the previous month. Additionally, 1.5 million people were marginally attached to the labor force, including 462,000 discouraged workers who believe no jobs are available for them.

Economic Trends and Labor Market Dynamics

The stability in unemployment rates combined with significant job growth in sectors like health care and technical services suggests a maturing recovery phase as the economy rebounds from previous disruptions. The consistency in sectors like health care underscores the critical demand for healthcare services, possibly driven by an aging population and greater health consciousness post-pandemic.

Government job increases also reflect ongoing public sector investments, which often provide a stabilizing effect on employment during economic fluctuations. Meanwhile, the leisure and hospitality sector's recovery is indicative of restored consumer confidence and spending levels.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the overall positive outlook, there remain areas of concern, such as the high unemployment rate among teenagers and the substantial number of individuals working part-time due to economic conditions. These issues highlight the need for targeted policy interventions, such as improved job training and education programs, especially for younger workers.

The slight increase in discouraged workers also suggests that some segments of the population are not feeling the benefits of economic recovery, possibly due to skills mismatches or geographic disparities in job availability.

Forward Outlook

Looking ahead, the labor market appears to be on a stable trajectory, but with some areas needing attention to ensure broader participation and benefits from economic growth. Employers and policymakers alike should focus on inclusive growth strategies that address the needs of the most vulnerable populations.

The next Employment Situation Summary, slated for release in early July, will be closely watched for signs of whether these trends continue, especially in terms of wage growth and labor force participation rates.

Overall, the May 2024 employment report paints a picture of a resilient U.S. job market, with ongoing opportunities tempered by challenges that need to be managed to sustain long-term economic health.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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40 ticks potential profit in 37 seconds on 6 June 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 40 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 6 June 2024.

Natural gas (40 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Weekly Update on U.S. Natural Gas Storage: Trends and Insights as of May 31, 2024

As we close another week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Natural Gas Storage Report. This week's data, ending on May 31, 2024, reveals significant trends in the storage of working gas, reflecting both seasonal influences and broader market dynamics.

Current Storage Figures and Regional Breakdown

As of May 31, total working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states stood at 2,893 billion cubic feet (Bcf). This is a robust increase of 98 Bcf from the previous week. When we delve into regional data, the distribution and changes become even more insightful:

  • East: Stocks reached 575 Bcf, with an impressive weekly increase of 37 Bcf.

  • Midwest: Storage levels rose to 681 Bcf, marking a rise of 29 Bcf over the last week.

  • Mountain: Smaller but still significant, stocks are at 218 Bcf, up 8 Bcf.

  • Pacific: Recorded a modest rise of 6 Bcf to reach 273 Bcf.

  • South Central: Demonstrating the largest regional storage, totals hit 1,146 Bcf, with an increase of 18 Bcf.

These figures underscore a noteworthy increase in storage levels across most regions, particularly in areas like the Pacific and Mountain regions, where percentage increases far outpace other regions.

Historical Comparisons and Market Implications

The current total storage of 2,893 Bcf not only surpasses last week's figures but also shows significant gains over historical benchmarks. This total is 373 Bcf higher than the same time last year and 581 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,312 Bcf. Such a position above the historical average suggests a robust supply scenario which could influence market sentiments and pricing strategies in the natural gas markets.

  • Year-over-Year: Each region has shown growth compared to last year, with the Mountain and Pacific regions reporting the most substantial relative increases (62.7% and 70.6%, respectively).

  • Against the Five-Year Average: Here too, the Mountain and Pacific regions standout with increases of 67.7% and 21.3%, respectively, showcasing a trend of growing stockpiles that may impact future supply availability and pricing.

Statistical Considerations

The EIA report also touches on the accuracy and reliability of these figures. The coefficients of variation (CV) for stocks indicate the reliability of the reported quantities. For most regions, the CV remains low, suggesting a high level of confidence in these measurements. Particularly notable is the Pacific region's 0.0% CV, indicating highly reliable data.

Market Outlook

Given the current data, market participants might anticipate stable or potentially lower natural gas prices, barring any unforeseen shifts in market demand or supply disruptions. The significant increase above the five-year average provides a cushion that could help mitigate price volatility in the short term.

In conclusion, the latest report on natural gas storage indicates a healthy supply situation in the U.S. As we head into the summer months, where consumption typically rises, the industry appears well-prepared to meet demand. However, stakeholders should continue to monitor weekly trends and other market indicators to refine their strategies in this dynamic market environment.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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20 pips potential profit in 13 seconds on 31 May 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BEA Personal Income and Outlays (PIO)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 20 pips on US BEA Personal Income and Outlays and US Durable Goods Orders data on 31 May 2024.

USDJPY (10 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the Latest Personal Income and Outlays Report for April 2024

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April 2024, revealing significant insights into the current economic trends and consumer behavior. Here's a breakdown of the key findings and what they mean for the economy.

Key Highlights from April 2024

  • Personal Income and Disposable Income: Personal income in April saw a moderate increase of $65.3 billion or 0.3 percent, which aligns with the growth trends observed in recent months. Disposable personal income (DPI), which is what people have left to spend after taxes, also rose by $40.2 billion or 0.2 percent. These figures suggest a steady income flow but also hint at the rising tax burdens consumers are facing.

  • Consumer Spending: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by $39.1 billion, a growth of 0.2 percent from the previous month. This increase is relatively modest, indicating that while consumers are spending, there is caution in the air possibly due to inflationary pressures.

  • Inflation and Prices: The PCE price index, which measures the average change in prices paid by consumers, increased by 0.3 percent in April. Excluding food and energy, core inflation was slightly lower at 0.2 percent. On an annual basis, the PCE price index has increased by 2.7 percent, and core inflation stands at 2.8 percent. These figures are crucial for the Federal Reserve's monitoring of inflation dynamics.

  • Sector-Specific Insights: The report detailed changes in spending across various sectors. Spending on services rose by $49.1 billion, led by increases in housing, healthcare, and financial services. However, there was a $10.0 billion decline in goods spending, driven by decreases in recreational goods and vehicles.

  • Savings and Outlays: The personal saving rate was recorded at 3.6 percent, indicating that consumers are saving a smaller portion of their income compared to previous periods. Total personal outlays, which include spending and other payments like interest and transfers, grew by $42.8 billion.

Economic Implications

The moderate growth in personal income and consumption, combined with stable inflation rates, suggests that the economy is on a steady path, albeit with underlying caution among consumers. The disparities in spending between goods and services highlight shifting consumer preferences, possibly influenced by long-term changes brought about by the pandemic and current economic policies.

Inflation remains a critical watchpoint. While the core inflation rate is stable, continued increases in energy prices and certain service sectors could prompt a reevaluation of spending and saving strategies among consumers.

Forward Look

As we move deeper into 2024, the interplay between income growth, inflation, and consumer spending will be pivotal in shaping economic policies and consumer confidence. The next release of this report, scheduled for June 28, 2024, will be crucial for understanding if these trends are merely a blip or the beginning of a more significant shift in the economic landscape.

Overall, while the economy shows signs of resilience, the balance between spending and saving, alongside inflation management, will dictate the pace of economic recovery and growth in the coming months.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2024

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45 ticks potential profit in 16 seconds on 23 May 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 45 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 23 May 2024.

Natural gas (45 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Update: Significant Inventory Growth

The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending May 17, 2024, reveals a substantial increase in natural gas stocks, indicating strong trends in gas storage across the United States. Here's an insightful overview of the key findings from the report released on May 23, 2024.

Overview of Natural Gas Stocks

As of May 17, 2024, working gas in underground storage totaled 2,711 billion cubic feet (Bcf), marking a significant net increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week. This current stock is not only 402 Bcf higher than the same time last year but also 606 Bcf above the five-year average, which sits at 2,105 Bcf. These figures suggest a robust storage scenario that exceeds historical norms.

Regional Insights

The distribution of storage increases across the different regions is as follows:

  • East: Storage rose to 511 Bcf, up by 29 Bcf, reflecting a 6.5% increase from last year and a 28.1% surge over the five-year average.

  • Midwest: Here, stocks reached 628 Bcf, with a 22 Bcf increase from the previous week. This represents a 16.5% increase year-over-year and a 33.6% jump from the five-year average.

  • Mountain: Stocks stood at 202 Bcf, up 6 Bcf for the week, and showing the most significant percentage increase—71.2% from last year and 74.1% over the five-year average.

  • Pacific: Increased by 7 Bcf to 259 Bcf, up a dramatic 90.4% from last year and 27% from the five-year average.

  • South Central: The largest regional storage, tallying at 1,112 Bcf after a 15 Bcf increase, with a 7.2% rise from last year and 21.3% above the five-year average.

These figures point to a growing trend in natural gas storage, reflecting potential shifts in both market dynamics and consumption patterns.

Statistical Confidence

The EIA report also provides estimated measures of sampling variability. Notably, the coefficients of variation for stocks in regions like the East and Midwest are relatively low, indicating high confidence in these measurements. Specifically, the total coefficient of variation stands at 0.4%, demonstrating the robustness of the overall data.

Market Implications

This notable increase in gas stocks might influence natural gas prices and market strategies. Higher storage levels typically translate into more stable prices, but the current levels surpassing the five-year averages substantially could hint at potential downward pressures on natural gas prices in the short term.

Looking Ahead

As the storage levels continue to climb, market participants will be closely monitoring the trends for implications on supply and pricing. The next update, scheduled for release on May 30, 2024, will be eagerly awaited for further insights into the trajectory of natural gas storage and its broader economic impacts.

In summary, the natural gas storage report highlights a robust increase in stocks, well above year-ago and five-year average levels, signaling strong supply conditions and potential shifts in the energy market landscape. Stay tuned for further updates as the situation evolves.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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24 ticks potential profit in 31 seconds on 16 May 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 24 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 16 May 2024.

Natural gas (24 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Navigating the Surge in Natural Gas Storage: Analysis of the Latest EIA Weekly Report

As of May 10, 2024, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, marking a notable increase in natural gas inventories. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of the data and what it implies for the market and policy-making.

Overview of Current Gas Stocks

The total working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states stood at 2,633 billion cubic feet (Bcf), as per the latest EIA estimates. This figure represents an increase of 70 Bcf over the previous week. When compared to the same week last year and against the five-year average, the current stocks are substantially higher—421 Bcf and 620 Bcf respectively. Such a significant increase not only highlights a robust replenishment but also sets a new precedent above the historical five-year range.

Regional Insights

  • East: Stocks rose to 482 Bcf, up by 28 Bcf from the previous week. This is significantly higher compared to both last year's and the five-year average figures.

  • Midwest: Here, inventories have seen an increase to 606 Bcf, up 22 Bcf week-over-week, with a notable 35.9% increase over the five-year average.

  • Mountain: This region’s stocks are at 196 Bcf, a modest increase but nearly double the five-year average, signaling unusual stockpiling activity.

  • Pacific: Reported at 252 Bcf, the stocks have surpassed last year’s numbers by a staggering 104.9%.

  • South Central: Totaling 1,097 Bcf, with a nuanced detail between salt (313 Bcf) and nonsalt (784 Bcf) facilities showing a diverse storage strategy.

Implications for the Market

The significant surplus relative to historical averages suggests several market dynamics. Firstly, it may indicate lesser demand due to mild weather conditions or increased efficiency in energy use. Alternatively, it might reflect a strategic buildup in anticipation of higher future demand or as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties affecting supply lines.

The regional data provide deeper insights; for instance, the extraordinary increase in the Pacific and Mountain regions might be driven by specific local factors or infrastructural developments. Investors and analysts would do well to watch these trends for indications of regional demand shifts or supply chain bottlenecks.

Policy and Economic Impacts

From a policy standpoint, the current levels of gas storage offer a buffer that can help manage price stability and energy security. However, such high levels might also dampen prices, potentially impacting producers' profitability and future investment in gas exploration and production. Regulators and policymakers must balance these aspects to optimize national energy strategies.

Forward Outlook

Looking ahead, market participants and regulators will need to keep a close eye on upcoming weekly reports and other market indicators to gauge the trend's sustainability. The next report, due on May 23, 2024, will be particularly scrutinized to see if the trend of stock buildups continues or stabilizes.

In conclusion, while the current high storage levels suggest a strong supply situation, the implications for prices, market dynamics, and policy-making are complex and must be navigated with careful analysis and foresight.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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17 pips potential profit in 15 seconds on 16 May 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 17 pips on US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey data on 16 May 2024.

USDJPY (12 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

May 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook: A Mix of Decline and Optimism

The results from the May 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicate a mixed bag for the regional manufacturing sector, presenting a scenario where current conditions have softened, yet future prospects remain positive. Conducted between May 6 and May 13, the survey captures the opinions of regional manufacturing firms, revealing a slight weakening in present activities but a sustained expectation of growth in the months ahead.

Current Manufacturing Climate: Challenges on Multiple Fronts

The survey underscores a noticeable decline in several key indicators this month. The diffusion index for current general activity, while still positive, has dropped 11 points to 4.5, primarily reversing the gains observed last month. This downward trend is also reflected in the new orders and shipments indexes, both of which have dipped into negative territory for the first time since early this year; new orders fell from 12.2 to -7.9, and shipments dropped from 19.1 to -1.2.

In terms of employment, the indicators are somewhat conflicting. Although the employment index itself showed a slight improvement, rising 3 points to -7.9, the overall balance still points to a decline in employment. A significant portion of firms (20%) reported a decrease in employment levels, overshadowing the 12% that noted an increase.

Pricing Trends: Increases Continue but Below Long-Term Averages

Price pressures continue to be a notable concern, albeit remaining below historical averages. The prices paid index decreased slightly by 4 points to 18.7, indicating ongoing rises in input costs. Conversely, the prices received index for firms’ own goods nudged up by just 1 point to 6.6, suggesting a more moderate pass-through of costs to consumers.

Future Outlook: Optimism Prevails Despite Current Downturn

Despite the current downturn, the survey reveals an overarching sense of optimism among firms about the future. The future general activity index experienced a minor decline but remained robust at 32.4, suggesting that a significant number of firms (45%) expect increases in activity over the next six months. This sentiment is bolstered by positive movements in the indexes for future new orders and shipments, with particularly strong expectations for the latter, which climbed 17 points to 46.2.

Employment prospects also appear more hopeful, as reflected by the 9-point rise in the future employment index to 21.7. This signals that firms are generally anticipating the need for more hands on deck as business activities are expected to ramp up.

Special Focus: Inflation Expectations and Price Forecasts

This month’s survey included special questions about price forecasts, revealing that firms expect a steady rise in their own prices by about 3.0% over the next year, mirroring the expected rate of inflation for U.S. consumers. While these projections hold steady from previous forecasts, there’s a slight downtrend in the expected rise in employee compensation, suggesting cautious optimism about cost management.

Conclusion

The May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey paints a realistic picture of the current manufacturing landscape—while immediate conditions show signs of softening, particularly in new orders and shipments, the broader outlook remains positive. This resilience amidst challenges highlights the sector's adaptability and forward-looking nature, suggesting that firms are poised to navigate through current uncertainties with a focus on future growth opportunities.

Source: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2024-05

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33 ticks potential profit in 29 seconds on 15 May 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading crude oil on DOE Petroleum Status Report data

According to our analysis crude oil moved 33 ticks on DOE Petroleum Status Report data on 15 May 2024.

Light sweet crude oil (17 ticks)

Brent crude oil (16 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the Latest Trends in U.S. Petroleum Data as of May 2024

The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration provides key insights into the petroleum market for the week ending May 10, 2024. As energy markets fluctuate, this data is crucial for understanding the current state of supply, demand, and pricing within the sector.

Refinery Inputs and Capacity Utilization

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs showed a significant increase, averaging 16.3 million barrels per day, up by 307,000 barrels from the previous week. This indicates a robust demand for refining capacity, which operated at an impressive 90.4% of its total available capacity. This high utilization rate suggests that refineries are ramping up operations possibly in response to anticipated demand or attractive margins on refined products.

Production Increases

Both gasoline and distillate fuel production saw increases last week. Gasoline production rose to an average of 9.7 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production, which includes diesel and heating oil, also increased to 4.8 million barrels per day. These increases are indicative of refineries adjusting outputs to meet shifting market demands or to replenish inventories.

Import and Inventory Shifts

Interestingly, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, marking a decrease of 226,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Over the last four weeks, however, imports have shown an overall increase of 7.1% compared to the same period last year. This rise could be attributed to various factors including pricing arbitrage opportunities or efforts to bolster reserves.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels, underscoring a drawdown that positions current stocks about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. This reduction in crude inventories could be a sign of stronger demand or a strategic inventory management by market participants.

Fuel Stock and Prices

While total motor gasoline inventories slightly declined, distillate fuel inventories experienced a slight decrease, staying about 7% below the five-year average. This lower inventory level for distillates might signal tightness in the diesel market, possibly leading to higher future prices if the trend continues.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels and are notably 14% above the five-year average. This could be due to lower demand or increased production, leading to higher stocks.

Price Movements

The price for West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $79.81 per barrel, marking a modest increase from the previous week and a significant rise compared to last year. Retail gasoline prices have seen a decline from last week, although they remain slightly higher than the previous year's figures. This could reflect the recent changes in crude prices and refinery outputs.

Conclusion

The data from the week ending May 10, 2024, highlights several important trends in the U.S. petroleum market. Increased refinery output and capacity utilization coupled with fluctuating imports and inventories suggest a dynamic market adjusting to both domestic and international pressures. Prices are reflecting these shifts, with notable implications for consumers and businesses alike. As the market continues to evolve, it will be important to monitor these trends for a deeper understanding of the broader economic landscape influenced by energy commodities.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf

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