We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 473 pips/ticks profit out of the following 12 events in the fourth quarter of 2024 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.
Q4 2024
US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (126 pips / 4 October 2024)
US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims and US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (47 pips / 17 October 2024)
US Jobless Claims (24 pips / 24 October 2024)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (34 ticks / 24 October 2024)
US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) (15 pips / 29 October 2024)
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (16 pips / 30 October 2024)
US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (54 pips / 13 November 2024)
US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) (31 pips / 14 November 2024)
US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) (18 pips / 3 December 2024)
US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (37 pips / 6 December 2024)
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (35 ticks / 12 December 2024)
FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections (36 pips / 18 December 2024)
Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)
Quarterly Market Outlook: Navigating Key Economic Events for Traders
As traders, staying ahead of impactful economic events is crucial to identifying opportunities and managing risk effectively. Each quarter, a series of reports and announcements can significantly influence market sentiment and price movements. In this post, we will break down the most notable economic events from October to December 2024 and their implications, helping you prepare your strategy for the months ahead.
October 2024: Key Economic Events
US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls - NFP)
Date: October 4, 2024
Market Impact: 126 pips
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a critical indicator of the US labor market’s health. In October, this report had a substantial impact of 126 pips, underscoring how deviations from expectations can trigger significant price swings, particularly in USD-related pairs. Traders often see the NFP as a catalyst for both short-term volatility and longer-term trend formation.
Trading Tip: Implement a volatility-based strategy by setting tighter stops and wider profit targets. Be cautious of whipsaw movements and consider using trailing stops.
US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
Date: October 17, 2024
Market Impact: 47 pips
Retail sales reflect consumer spending patterns, making this report an essential measure of economic momentum. Coupled with weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing data, this cluster of reports provides a comprehensive snapshot of economic activity.
Trading Tip: Look for correlations between the retail sales trend and currency pairs tied to consumer-driven economies. Divergence between retail sales and jobless claims could present arbitrage opportunities.
US Jobless Claims
Date: October 24, 2024
Market Impact: 24 pips
Weekly jobless claims are often overlooked but can indicate turning points in employment trends. This particular report caused a 24-pip movement, highlighting its capacity to affect sentiment during periods of heightened market sensitivity.
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report
Date: October 24, 2024
Market Impact: 34 ticks
Natural gas traders closely monitor the Department of Energy (DOE) storage report, which provides insights into supply and demand dynamics. In October, this report moved the market by 34 ticks, reflecting energy market volatility.
Trading Tip: Consider layering positions during periods of extreme weather forecasts, which can amplify the impact of the DOE report.
November 2024: Inflation in Focus
US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Date: November 13, 2024
Market Impact: 54 pips
Inflation data, particularly the CPI, is a key driver of monetary policy expectations. The 54-pip reaction to November’s CPI report demonstrates the market’s sensitivity to inflation surprises.
Trading Tip: Monitor Federal Reserve commentary leading up to the CPI release. A CPI print above expectations can increase the probability of a hawkish Fed response, pushing yields and the dollar higher.
US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI)
Date: November 14, 2024
Market Impact: 31 pips
The PPI, which tracks inflation at the wholesale level, often acts as a leading indicator for consumer inflation. In November, the PPI report moved the markets by 31 pips.
Trading Tip: Keep an eye on sectors with significant input costs, as they may show early signs of pricing pressures that trickle down to CPI readings.
December 2024: Fed Policy and Employment Insights
US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
Dates: October 29 and December 3, 2024
Market Impact: 15 pips (October) and 18 pips (December)
JOLTS data provides valuable information about labor demand and job openings. While the market impact in pips may seem moderate, JOLTS data plays a key role in shaping expectations for future employment trends.
US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls - NFP)
Date: December 6, 2024
Market Impact: 37 pips
The December NFP report triggered a 37-pip movement, reflecting sustained interest in employment data as a driver of market sentiment.
Trading Tip: Watch for revisions to previous NFP reports, as they can influence market reactions just as much as the current headline figure.
DOE Natural Gas Storage Report
Date: December 12, 2024
Market Impact: 35 ticks
Another DOE natural gas report in December reinforced the energy market’s sensitivity to storage changes.
FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections
Date: December 18, 2024
Market Impact: 36 pips
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is typically a pivotal event as it includes updated economic projections and the interest rate decision. The 36-pip market reaction indicates the influence of policy adjustments and forward guidance on forex markets.
Trading Tip: Prepare for increased volatility during the press conference following the FOMC statement. Focus on any changes to the "dot plot" and projections for future rate hikes or cuts.
Final Thoughts
Understanding the significance of key economic events can empower traders to navigate market volatility with greater confidence. By analyzing historical market reactions and staying attuned to the context of each report, traders can better anticipate potential price movements and tailor their strategies accordingly. Keep your economic calendar updated and remain disciplined in managing risk during these high-impact events. As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and trade wisely.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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