36 pips potential profit in 144 seconds on 18 December 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 36 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 18 December 2024.

USDJPY (13 pips)

EURUSD (23 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates and Releases Updated Economic Projections for 2024-2027

Date: December 18, 2024

The Federal Reserve has made headlines today by not only cutting the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% but also releasing its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). These projections outline the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) expectations for key economic indicators, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation, through 2027.

Key Economic Projections for 2024-2027

The SEP provides a detailed look at the anticipated trajectory of the U.S. economy, offering insight into where the Fed believes things are headed under current policy assumptions. Here’s a breakdown of the highlights:

1. Real GDP Growth

• 2024: Projected to grow by 2.5% (up from 2.0% in the September projection).

• 2025: Growth slows slightly to 2.1%.

• 2026: Expected at 2.0%.

• 2027: Further tapering to 1.9%.

• Longer Run: A sustainable growth rate of 1.8%.

Context: The upward revision in 2024’s GDP projection reflects confidence in the economy’s resilience, despite higher interest rates throughout the year. Growth is anticipated to gradually moderate over the longer term.

2. Unemployment Rate

• 2024: Median projection of 4.2%.

• 2025-2027: Steady at 4.3%.

• Longer Run: Expected to stabilize at 4.2%.

Context: While the labor market is expected to ease slightly, unemployment projections remain historically low, indicating a relatively healthy job market.

3. PCE Inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

• 2024: Projected at 2.4%.

• 2025: Slight increase to 2.5%.

• 2026: Moderates to 2.1%.

• 2027: Aligns with the Fed’s target at 2.0%.

• Longer Run: Stable at 2.0%.

Context: Inflation remains a key concern, but projections suggest the Fed expects to achieve its 2% goal by 2027.

4. Core PCE Inflation (Excluding Food and Energy)

• 2024: 2.8%.

• 2025: Drops to 2.5%.

• 2026: Further down to 2.2%.

• 2027: Aligns with the target at 2.0%.

Context: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to remain slightly elevated in the near term before converging with the overall inflation target.

5. Federal Funds Rate

• 2024: Projected to end at 4.4%.

• 2025: Declines to 3.9%.

• 2026: Further reduces to 3.4%.

• 2027: Expected to stabilize at 3.1%.

• Longer Run: Settles at 3.0%.

Context: The Fed’s policy path suggests a gradual easing of interest rates over the next few years, reflecting confidence that inflation will continue to cool while supporting economic growth.

What Does This Mean for the Economy?

1. Growth with Stability

The upward revision of 2024 GDP growth indicates the economy is performing better than previously expected. While growth is expected to moderate, it’s not anticipated to stall, suggesting a soft landing rather than a recession.

2. Labor Market Resilience

The projected unemployment rate remains low, indicating that even as the economy adjusts to higher interest rates, the job market is expected to remain resilient. This provides reassurance for workers and consumers.

3. Inflation Under Control

The Fed’s inflation projections suggest confidence that price pressures will continue to ease. Achieving the 2% inflation target by 2027 will be a key milestone for restoring economic stability.

4. Gradual Rate Cuts

With the federal funds rate projected to decline gradually over the next few years, borrowing costs for consumers and businesses are likely to decrease. This could support investments in housing, business expansion, and consumer spending.

Market Reactions and Future Policy

Despite the Fed’s rate cut and optimistic projections, the stock market declined following the announcement. Investors appear to remain wary of lingering uncertainties surrounding the economy, inflation, and future policy adjustments. The market’s reaction underscores concerns about potential risks to growth and the Fed’s ability to navigate these challenges effectively.

Conclusion: A Measured Approach to Monetary Policy

The Fed’s decision to cut rates and its detailed economic projections signal a measured approach to navigating economic uncertainty. The central bank remains committed to fostering maximum employment and price stability while adapting to changing conditions.

As we move into 2025, all eyes will be on inflation trends, labor market conditions, and the Fed’s ongoing policy decisions. For now, today’s actions provide cautious optimism that the U.S. economy can continue to grow while keeping inflation under control, though market sentiment remains cautious.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241218a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20241218.htm

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62 pips potential profit in 46 seconds on 18 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 62 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 18 September 2024.

USDJPY (47 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Update: September 18, 2024 - A Closer Look at Economic Projections and Policy Adjustments

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest projections and made an important adjustment to the federal funds rate. These changes reflect the committee’s ongoing efforts to navigate a complex economic landscape while balancing its dual mandate—promoting maximum employment and stabilizing inflation around its 2% target.

Summary of Economic Projections

The FOMC's summary of economic projections provides a window into the future, outlining expectations for key economic indicators such as real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate through 2027. Here's a breakdown of the main highlights:

1. Real GDP Growth

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The median real GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 2.0% each year from 2024 through 2027. The longer-run projection sits slightly lower at 1.8%.

• Comparison to June Projections: The September projections show slight moderation compared to the June meeting, where 2024's GDP growth was expected to hit 2.1%.

• Key Takeaway: Despite some fluctuations earlier in the year, growth is expected to stabilize, reflecting resilience in the broader economy, even as global and domestic challenges persist.

2. Unemployment Rate

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The unemployment rate is projected to hover around 4.4% in 2024 and 2025, gradually falling to 4.2% by 2027. The longer-run forecast stabilizes at 4.2%.

• Comparison to June Projections: This is an upward revision from June’s projection of 4.0% for 2024, signaling a softer labor market.

• Key Takeaway: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up slightly, it remains low by historical standards, indicating a robust labor market.

3. Inflation (PCE and Core PCE)

• 2024-2027 Forecast: Headline PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3% in 2024, gradually tapering to 2.0% by 2026 and beyond. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to fall from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2026 and remain there.

• Comparison to June Projections: The September report reveals a more optimistic outlook for inflation, with PCE and core PCE projections slightly lower than June.

• Key Takeaway: Inflation has made significant progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, signaling that the Fed's tightening policies are having the desired effect.

4. Federal Funds Rate

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The FOMC projects a median federal funds rate of 4.4% for 2024, falling to 3.4% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. The longer-run forecast stands at 2.9%.

• Key Takeaway: After aggressive rate hikes in 2023, the Fed is signaling a more accommodative policy stance in the coming years as inflation moderates.

Monetary Policy Update: Rate Cut Announced

In a noteworthy move, the FOMC decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, bringing it down to 4.75%–5.00%. This is the first rate cut since the aggressive rate hikes began in response to pandemic-related inflation surges. The committee cited progress on inflation and balanced risks as reasons for the decision.

Why Now?

• Progress on Inflation: The FOMC expressed greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target, allowing room for easing. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Fed remains cautious.

• Economic Activity: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has increased slightly, economic activity is still expanding at a solid pace. This balance supports a more gradual easing in monetary policy.

• Balanced Risks: The FOMC acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, but the risks to achieving its goals of full employment and stable prices are now seen as more balanced.

Dissenting View

Michelle W. Bowman, one of the committee members, voted against the 0.5% rate cut, preferring a more cautious reduction of 0.25 percentage points. This reflects some lingering concerns about inflationary pressures and the need to stay vigilant.

Looking Ahead

The FOMC's projections suggest that the U.S. economy is on a stable path, with inflation gradually cooling and the labor market remaining resilient despite slight upticks in the unemployment rate. As inflation continues to converge toward the 2% target, the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious but flexible approach, carefully assessing incoming data to adjust its policy as necessary.

While today’s rate cut marks a shift toward a more accommodative policy stance, the committee remains committed to balancing its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The path of future rate adjustments will depend on evolving economic conditions, particularly inflationary trends and labor market dynamics.

As always, we’ll keep a close watch on future FOMC meetings and their implications for the economy, businesses, and consumers alike.

Stay tuned for more updates as the economic outlook continues to evolve!

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20240918.htm

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1186 pips potential profit in 68 seconds on 21 March 2024, analysis on forex fx news trading USDTRY first on Turkey interest rate decision data

According to our analysis USDTRY moved 1186 pips on Turkey interest rate decision (TCMB) data on 21 March 2024.

USDTRY (1186 pips)

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Understanding the Recent Move: A Dive into the Monetary Policy Committee's Decision to Hike Interest Rates

On March 21, 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), under the leadership of Governor Yaşar Fatih Karahan and members Osman Cevdet Akçay, Elif Haykır Hobikoğlu, Hatice Karahan, and Fatma Özkul, made a pivotal decision in the realm of Turkey's economic policy. In a move aimed at curbing the inflationary pressures that have beleaguered the economy, the Committee announced an increase in the policy rate, specifically the one-week repo auction rate, from 45 percent to an assertive 50 percent. This significant rate hike is a clear signal of the central bank's intention to tighten monetary conditions in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook.

The Reason Behind the Hike

February saw an unexpected spike in monthly inflation, primarily driven by services inflation. Despite a slowdown in the imports of consumption goods and gold, which positively contributed to the current account balance, indicators suggest that domestic demand continues to be robust. The MPC has highlighted several factors that keep inflationary pressures alive: stickiness in services inflation, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and food prices.

In an effort to counteract these pressures, the Committee has also decided to adjust the monetary policy operational framework. This adjustment includes setting the Central Bank overnight borrowing and lending rates 300 basis points below and above the one-week repo auction rate, respectively. This strategy is aimed at ensuring the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

The Strategy Moving Forward

The MPC's decision to raise the policy rate underscores a broader strategy to maintain a tight monetary stance until there is a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation. The Committee has also expressed its readiness to tighten the monetary policy stance further if inflation deteriorates significantly and persistently.

The central bank's determination to maintain a tight monetary stance is expected to moderate domestic demand, lead to a real appreciation in the Turkish lira, and improve inflation expectations. These measures, in turn, are projected to contribute to a decrease in the underlying trend of monthly inflation, establishing a path toward disinflation in the second half of 2024.

Macroprudential Policies and Future Outlook

Alongside monetary tightening, the Committee continues to implement macroprudential policies to preserve market mechanism functionality and macrofinancial stability. These include tightening financial conditions and reinforcing monetary policy transmission with measures taken in March. The MPC emphasizes the importance of monitoring market liquidity closely and effectively using sterilization tools as needed.

Looking ahead, the Committee will consider the lagged effects of monetary tightening in its policy decisions, aiming to create the monetary and financial conditions necessary for a decline in the underlying trend of inflation. The ultimate goal is to achieve the 5 percent inflation target in the medium term.

The MPC's decision-making process will remain predictable, data-driven, and transparent. The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days, providing further insights into the Committee's analysis and expectations.

Conclusion

The recent decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to increase interest rates marks a critical step in Turkey's fight against inflation. By taking a decisive and transparent approach, the Committee aims to stabilize prices and lay the groundwork for sustainable economic growth. As the situation evolves, the central bank's actions will be closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and the public, who are eager to see the return of price stability and economic prosperity.

Source: https://tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/62a341a9-b793-4ba8-9582-7b10dc2c9331/ANO2024-14.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-62a341a9-b793-4ba8-9582-7b10dc2c9331-oVwGLDx

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67 pips and 104 points potential profit in 199 seconds on 13 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 67 pips and US30 104 points on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 13 December 2023.

USDJPY (37 pips)

EURUSD (30 pips)

US30 (104 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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FOMC Projections - December 13, 2023

Summary of Economic Projections:

Real GDP Growth:

• 2023:

  • December projection: Median 2.6%

  • September projection: Median 2.1%

• 2024:

  • December projection: Median 1.4%

  • September projection: Median 1.5%

Unemployment Rate:

• 2023:

  • December projection: Median 3.8%

  • September projection: Median 3.8%

• 2024:

  • December projection: Median 4.1%

  • September projection: Median 4.1%

PCE Inflation:

• 2023:

  • December projection: Median 2.8%

  • September projection: Median 3.3%

• 2024:

  • December projection: Median 2.4%

  • September projection: Median 2.5%

Core PCE Inflation:

• 2023:

  • December projection: Median 3.2%

  • September projection: Median 3.7%

• 2024:

  • December projection: Median 2.4%

  • September projection: Median 2.6%

Federal Funds Rate (Projected Appropriate Policy Path):

• 2023:

  • December projection: Median 5.4%, Range 5.4–5.4%.

  • September projection: Median 5.6%, Range 5.4–5.6%.

• 2024:

  • December projection: Median 4.6%, Range 4.4–4.9%.

  • September projection: Median 5.1%, Range 4.6–5.4%.

• 2025:

  • December projection: Median 3.6%, Range 3.1–3.9%.

  • September projection: Median 3.9%, Range 3.4–4.9%.

• 2026:

  • December projection: Median 2.9%, Range 2.5–3.1%.

  • September projection: Median 2.9%, Range 2.5–4.1%.

• Longer Run:

  • December projection: Median 2.5%, Range 2.4–3.8%.

  • September projection: Median 2.5%, Range 2.4–3.8%.

Comparison with September Projections:

• GDP growth projections for 2023 have increased from 2.1% to 2.6%.

• Unemployment rate projections for 2023 remain at 3.8%, while projections for 2024 have increased slightly.

• PCE inflation projections for 2023 have decreased from 3.3% to 2.8%.

• Core PCE inflation projections have decreased across all years.

• The projections for the federal funds rate have generally decreased for each year from 2023 to the longer run.

• The median projections for 2023 and 2024 are slightly lower in December compared to September.

• The ranges for 2023 and 2024 are narrower in December, indicating a bit more consensus among participants.

• The longer-run median and range are consistent between December and September.

Summary of the FOMC Statement - December 13, 2023:

• Economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in Q3.

• Job gains have moderated, but the unemployment rate remains low.

• Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

• The U.S. banking system is sound, but tighter financial conditions may impact economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

• The federal funds rate target range is maintained at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.

• The Committee remains attentive to inflation risks and committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

• The Committee will assess information for future policy decisions, considering the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and economic developments.

• The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

• Voting for the monetary policy action includes Powell, Williams, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Goolsbee, Harker, Jefferson, Kashkari, Kugler, Logan, and Waller.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20231213a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20231213.htm

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1668 pips potential profit in 10 seconds on 23 November 2023, analysis on forex fx news trading USDTRY first on Turkey interest rate decision data

According to our analysis USDTRY moved 1668 pips on Turkey interest rate decision (TCMB) data on 23 November 2023.

USDTRY (1668 pips)

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Navigating Economic Tides: A Closer Look at Turkey's Monetary Policy Decision and Exchange Rate Movement

November 23, 2023

In a decisive move, the Monetary Policy Committee of Turkey recently announced a significant adjustment to the policy rate, sending ripples through financial markets and impacting the USD/TRY exchange rate. Here's a closer look at the key developments and factors shaping Turkey's economic landscape.

Monetary Policy Committee's Decision: Raising the Policy Rate

Led by Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, the Committee decided to raise the policy rate, specifically the one-week repo auction rate, from 35 percent to 40 percent. This move, though not unexpected, marked a departure from the initially anticipated rate of 37.5 percent.

Inflation Dynamics and Domestic Demand: A Balancing Act

The decision was grounded in a careful evaluation of various economic indicators. Headline inflation experienced a marginal decrease in October, aligning with the projections outlined in the recent Inflation Report. However, persistent inflation pressures emanating from the existing level of domestic demand, stickiness in services inflation, and geopolitical risks necessitated a continued focus on monetary tightening.

Exchange Rate Dynamics: USD/TRY Movement

Following the Committee's decision, the USD/TRY exchange rate exhibited a significant downward movement of 1668 pips. This movement can be attributed to several factors, including the widening interest rate differential between the Turkish lira and the US dollar and shifts in market sentiment.

Committee's Outlook: Sustaining Price Stability

The Committee emphasized that the current level of monetary tightness is approaching the necessary threshold for establishing a disinflation course. While the pace of monetary tightening is expected to decelerate, the commitment to maintaining tightness remains steadfast to ensure sustained price stability.

Market Mechanisms and Financial Stability: Strengthening Foundations

Efforts to simplify and enhance the micro- and macroprudential framework continue to strengthen market mechanisms and bolster macro financial stability. Regulatory measures aimed at increasing the share of Turkish lira deposits and ongoing monetary tightening are anticipated to fortify the transmission mechanism and improve the funding composition of the banking system.

Looking Ahead: A Transparent and Predictable Approach

The Committee affirms its commitment to a transparent, data-driven, and predictable framework for decision-making. The communication approach emphasizes ongoing monitoring of inflation indicators and underlying trends, with a commitment to using all available tools to achieve the primary objective of price stability.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainties with Strategic Moves

As Turkey navigates through economic uncertainties, the recent monetary policy decision and the subsequent exchange rate movement reflect strategic moves to address inflationary pressures and enhance financial stability. The coming days will see the effects of these decisions unfold, with the Committee poised to adapt to evolving economic dynamics.

Source: https://tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/7e715cde-e17c-412d-8f09-8009ebf2af83/ANO2023-45.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-7e715cde-e17c-412d-8f09-8009ebf2af83-oLXRzbf

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25 pips potential profit in 34 seconds on 14 September 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD on ECB Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 25 pips on European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision data on 14 September 2023.

EURUSD (25 pips)

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On the date of September 20, 2023, the ECB announced a series of significant monetary policy decisions and shared key insights into the Eurozone's economic outlook:

ECB's Determination to Tackle Inflation:

• The ECB expressed its concern over persistently high inflation while acknowledging a decline in inflation rates. Despite this decline, inflation levels remained above the ECB's target.

• The central objective of the ECB was to ensure that inflation returns to its medium-term target of 2% promptly.

Interest Rate Increase:

• In a move to address inflation concerns and demonstrate its commitment to this target, the ECB decided to raise its three key interest rates by 25 basis points. This action aimed to tighten monetary policy.

• The decision to increase interest rates was grounded in the ECB's assessment of inflation prospects, economic and financial data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the efficacy of monetary policy transmission.

Revised GDP Growth Projections:

• The ECB provided updated macroeconomic projections for the Eurozone. These projections indicated a downward revision in GDP growth expectations.

• Economic growth in the Eurozone was projected to be modest, with expectations of a 0.7% expansion in 2023, 1.0% in 2024, and 1.5% in 2025. This revision was likely due to tightening financial conditions and challenging international trade dynamics.

Revised Economic Projections:

• The ECB provided updated macroeconomic projections for the Eurozone, projecting average inflation rates of 5.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024, and 2.1% in 2025. These projections reflected upward revisions for 2023 and 2024 primarily due to higher energy prices, and a downward revision for 2025.

• Even though some indicators pointed to easing, underlying price pressures in the Eurozone were considered high.

Market Reaction and Currency Impact:

• In response to these developments, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a notable decline. This movement was influenced by the ECB's revised GDP growth projections, which suggested a potentially weaker economic outlook for the Eurozone.

• Lower GDP growth forecasts raised concerns about economic health, leading to speculations that the ECB might be less inclined to raise interest rates, thus diminishing expectations of higher returns on Euro-denominated assets. This perception made the Euro (EUR) less attractive to investors, resulting in a depreciation of the currency against the US Dollar (USD).

Future Monetary Policy and Flexibility:

• The ECB indicated that the current interest rate levels, if maintained over an adequate period, could significantly contribute to achieving the inflation target.

• Future ECB decisions would ensure that key interest rates remained at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as needed.

• The ECB would continue to adopt a data-dependent approach to determine the appropriate level and duration of these restrictions based on evolving economic and financial data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD's decline can be attributed to the interplay of the ECB's revised GDP growth projections, interest rate expectations, and investor sentiment. Economic projections played a pivotal role in shaping market reactions, ultimately contributing to the observed downward movement in the EUR/USD currency pair.

Source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230914~aab39f8c21.en.html

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4839 pips potential profit in 232 seconds on 24 August 2023, analysis on forex fx news trading USDTRY first on Turkey interest rate decision data

According to our analysis USDTRY moved 4839 pips on Turkey interest rate decision (TCMB) data on 24 August 2023.

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USDTRY (4839 pips)

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54 pips and 111 points potential profit in 50 seconds on 22 March 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips and US30 111 points on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 22 March 2023.

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USDJPY (32 pips)

EURUSD (22 pips)

US30 (111 points)

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36 pips potential profit in 42 seconds on 1 February 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 36 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data on 1 February 2023.

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USDJPY (25 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

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21 pips potential profit in 34 seconds on 27 October 2022, analysis on forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD on ECB Interest Rate Decision & Statement data

According to our analysis EURUSD moved 21 pips on European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision & Statement data on 27 October 2022.

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EURUSD (21 pips)

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