21 pips potential profit in 24 seconds on 1 April 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 21 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 1 April 2025.

USDJPY (17 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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JOLTS Report Breakdown – What February 2025 Tells Traders About the Labor Market

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report dropped this morning, and while the headline summary says “little changed,” the details tell a more nuanced story for markets.

For February 2025:

• Job Openings: 7.6 million (down 194,000 month-over-month, down 877,000 year-over-year)

• Hires: 5.4 million (unchanged)

• Total Separations: 5.3 million (unchanged)

• Quits: 3.2 million (unchanged, down 273,000 year-over-year)

• Layoffs & Discharges: 1.8 million (unchanged)

Here’s what it all means from a trading lens:

1. Job Openings Decline Continues
Job openings fell by 194,000 in February following a slight upward revision to January’s number. That’s nearly 900,000 fewer openings compared to a year ago. At 4.5%, the openings rate suggests employer demand is still solid but cooling.

Market Implication:
This labor market softening supports a dovish tilt from the Fed. A slower pace of hiring demand should help temper wage inflation, giving rate-cut narratives more traction. Expect continued strength in bonds and growth equities if this trend holds.

2. Quits Rate Remains Low
At 2.0%, the quits rate hasn’t budged. Workers still aren’t leaving jobs like they were a year ago, which points to reduced job-hopping confidence and easing wage pressures.

Market Implication:
Wage growth moderation is a positive signal for inflation control. This is especially bullish for duration-sensitive assets, including tech, Treasuries, and REITs.

3. Layoffs Up in Retail and Real Estate
The total number of layoffs and discharges held steady overall, but under the hood, key sectors saw increases:

• Retail Trade: +67,000

• Real Estate and Leasing: +24,000

• Federal Government: +18,000

• Transportation/Warehousing: -42,000 (a notable decline)

Market Implication:
Weakness in retail and real estate may translate into pressure on consumer and housing stocks. But fewer layoffs in transportation could support cyclical or industrial names.

4. Small Business Labor Pressure
Firms with 1–9 employees saw a decrease in quits and other separations but an increase in layoffs/discharges—hinting at mounting strain in the small business segment.

Market Implication:
Small caps and regional banks could feel more pressure if this continues. Keep an eye on the Russell 2000 and credit-sensitive financials.

5. January Revisions Worth Watching

• Job openings revised up to 7.8M

• Hires revised down by 22K

• Quits revised down by 10K

• Layoffs revised up by 39K

Market Implication:
While the revisions are modest, they reinforce the theme of a gradually softening labor market. That may strengthen the argument for Fed cuts if this trajectory continues.

Looking Ahead
The next JOLTS report (for March) lands April 29—right before the next FOMC meeting. If labor demand and confidence continue sliding, expect the market to more aggressively price in rate cuts for mid-2025.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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US30 154 points and BTC 592 points potential profit in 12 seconds on 14 March 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading US30 and BTC Bitcoin on Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis US30 moved 154 points and BTC 592 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 14 March 2025.

US30 (154 points)

BTC (592 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Market Sentiment Crashes: What Traders Need to Know

March 2025 has delivered another major blow to consumer sentiment, marking the third consecutive month of decline. According to the preliminary data, the Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 10.5% from February and a staggering 27.1% year-over-year. Economic uncertainty continues to rattle consumers and traders alike, with ripple effects visible across the markets.

Key Takeaways:

• Consumer sentiment plunged to 57.9, down from 64.7 in February and 79.4 a year ago.

• Economic expectations deteriorated sharply, with the Index of Consumer Expectations plummeting 15.3% month-over-month and 30.0% year-over-year.

• Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.9%, up from 4.3% last month, the highest reading since November 2022.

• Long-run inflation expectations spiked to 3.9%, marking the biggest monthly jump since 1993.

• Market reactions: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) dropped 154 points, while Bitcoin (BTC) fell 592 points.

Breaking Down the Market Impact

Equities Market: Bearish Momentum Persists

Consumer sentiment is often a leading indicator of market performance, and the latest data suggests continued weakness. The 154-point drop in the Dow underscores mounting concerns about economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures.

Key sectors to watch:

• Retail & Consumer Goods: With sentiment tumbling, discretionary spending could take a hit. Watch out for bearish trends in companies reliant on consumer confidence, such as major retailers and automakers.

• Financials: Rising inflation expectations could push interest rates higher, impacting lending and borrowing costs. Banks may see short-term gains but long-term risks.

• Technology: Growth stocks, particularly those sensitive to interest rate movements, may experience increased volatility.

Crypto Market: BTC’s Decline Reflects Risk Aversion

Bitcoin’s 592-point drop aligns with the broader trend of risk-off sentiment. Higher inflation expectations can lead to more aggressive monetary tightening, reducing liquidity and dampening demand for speculative assets like crypto. Traders should watch for:

• Support Levels: BTC needs to hold key technical levels to prevent further downside pressure.

• Macroeconomic Cues: Any hawkish signals from central banks could exacerbate selling pressure.

• Altcoin Correlations: The broader crypto market tends to follow BTC’s lead, so caution is warranted across the board.

Trading Strategies in a Volatile Environment

Short-Term Plays:

• Hedge Against Inflation: Consider commodities such as gold and energy stocks, which often perform well in inflationary environments.

• Short Weak Sectors: Retail, consumer discretionary, and high-growth tech stocks may struggle in the current climate.

• Play the Volatility: Options strategies like straddles or strangles could be useful given heightened uncertainty.

Long-Term Positioning:

• Defensive Stocks: Sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples tend to be more resilient during economic downturns.

• Dividend Payers: Stocks with strong dividend yields can provide stability amidst market turbulence.

• Crypto Accumulation: If BTC continues to correct, long-term holders might find opportunities to buy on dips.

What’s Next?

The final March sentiment report is set for release on March 28, 2025. Until then, expect continued volatility as traders digest the latest data. The biggest wild card remains policy uncertainty—any shifts in fiscal or monetary policy could further disrupt market stability. Keep a close eye on inflation trends, central bank actions, and earnings reports for guidance on the next moves.

Stay sharp, stay hedged, and trade smart!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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20 pips and BTC 280 points potential profit in 218 seconds on 14 Februar 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and BTC on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and BTC moved 20 pips and 280 points on US Retail Sales data on 14 February 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

BTC (280 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Market Reaction: USD/JPY Drops, Bitcoin Rallies After Weak Retail Sales Data

📅 February 14, 2025

The latest U.S. retail sales report has sent ripples through financial markets, causing USD/JPY to drop 20 pips while Bitcoin surged 280 points. With traders reacting swiftly to the data, let’s break down what’s happening and how you can capitalize on the volatility.

📉 USD/JPY Falls 20 Pips – Weak U.S. Data Weighs on Dollar

The U.S. retail and food services sales for January fell 0.9% from December, worse than market expectations. While still up 4.2% YoY, the weaker month-over-month figure has sparked concerns about consumer spending trends.

💡 Market Reaction:

• The dollar weakened as traders reassess Fed rate cut expectations—a slowdown in retail activity could push the Fed to ease sooner.

• USD/JPY fell 20 pips as demand for the safe-haven yen increased.

• U.S. Treasury yields ticked lower, signaling growing expectations of monetary easing.

🚀 Bitcoin Rallies 280 Points – Risk-On Sentiment Creeping Back?

Bitcoin surged 280 points following the report, as traders bet on softer economic data fueling rate cut speculation. With lower rates favoring risk assets, BTC has resumed its upward momentum.

📢 Final Thoughts

Today’s retail sales report has triggered FX and crypto volatility, with USD/JPY sliding and Bitcoin soaring. As traders digest the data, all eyes will be on Fed policy signals and risk sentiment in the coming days.

🚀 What’s your move? Are you shorting USD/JPY or riding the BTC rally? Drop your strategy in the comments!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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23 pips, US30 147 points and BTC 1279 points potential profit in 32 seconds on 12 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 23 pips, US30 moved 147 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1279 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 February 2025.

USDJPY (23 pips)

US30 (147 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1279 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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CPI Report Shakes Markets: USD/JPY Gains, US30 Drops, BTC Dips

The January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a higher-than-expected inflation increase of 0.5% month-over-month, bringing the annual CPI to 3.0%. This data immediately sent ripples through the financial markets, impacting major asset classes, including forex, equities, and crypto.

Key CPI Highlights:

• Headline CPI: +0.5% (MoM), +3.0% (YoY)

• Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy): +0.4% (MoM), +3.3% (YoY)

• Shelter Costs: +0.4% MoM, a major driver of inflation

• Energy Index: +1.1% MoM, fueled by a 1.8% increase in gasoline prices

• Food Index: +0.4% MoM, with food-at-home prices up 0.5%

Market Reaction:

Forex – USD/JPY Rises 23 Pips

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY climbing 23 pips post-release. This move reflects increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates for longer to combat inflation. The resilience of core CPI above 3.0% further solidifies the Fed’s hawkish stance, making USD more attractive compared to JPY, which remains under the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy.

Equities – US30 Drops 147 Points

Wall Street reacted negatively to the inflation data, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) falling 147 points. Investors are concerned that persistent inflation may delay any potential Fed rate cuts, dampening risk appetite. Additionally, rising costs for shelter and transportation services indicate that consumer spending power could take a hit, affecting corporate earnings.

Crypto – Bitcoin Drops 1,279 Points

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp decline of 1,279 points following the CPI release, reflecting a risk-off sentiment in the broader market. Higher-than-expected inflation led to speculation that Fed policy will remain tight, reducing liquidity for riskier assets like crypto. BTC’s drop also aligns with a broader sell-off in tech and growth stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to interest rate outlooks.

Final Thoughts

Traders should brace for continued volatility as inflation concerns linger. The next major catalyst will be the Fed’s response in upcoming meetings and market reactions to any further economic data releases. Stay alert to potential breakout moves in USD/JPY, US30, and BTC as inflation trends develop.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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14 pips, US30 144 points and BTC 739 points potential profit in 176 seconds on 7 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 14 pips, US30 moved 144 points and BTC 739 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 7 February 2025.

USDJPY (7 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (144 points)

BTC (739 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Markets React to Consumer Sentiment Drop: US30 & BTC Decline

The preliminary consumer sentiment data for February 2025 came in lower than expected, triggering a broad risk-off sentiment across financial markets. The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) and Bitcoin (BTC) both moved lower following the release, as traders reacted to rising inflation fears and weakening economic confidence.

Consumer Sentiment Declines for a Second Month

The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 67.8, marking a 4.6% decline from January and an 11.8% drop year-over-year. This drop represents the lowest level since July 2024 and reflects growing concerns over economic conditions, inflation, and future expectations.

The Current Economic Conditions index fell even further, down 7.2% month-over-month and 13.5% from last year, showing that consumers are increasingly cautious about spending. Meanwhile, the Index of Consumer Expectations declined 2.9% month-over-month and 10.5% year-over-year, signaling growing pessimism about the future economic landscape.

Market Reaction: US30 (Dow) Pulls Back

US equities, particularly the Dow Jones (US30), reacted negatively to the report. With consumer sentiment weakening, concerns over slowing economic growth and the impact of tariffs on durable goods purchases added downward pressure on stocks.

• Buying conditions for durable goods fell by 12%, reinforcing concerns that consumer demand may weaken.

• Inflation expectations jumped from 3.3% to 4.3%, raising fears that the Federal Reserve might have to keep interest rates higher for longer.

• The market had been pricing in potential rate cuts later in the year, but rising inflation expectations complicate that outlook, leading to a sell-off in equities.

Bitcoin (BTC) Also Takes a Hit

Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against inflation, has struggled to find bullish momentum in this environment. BTC dropped in tandem with equities, signaling that risk-off sentiment has spilled over into the crypto market.

• Rising inflation concerns can sometimes benefit Bitcoin as a hedge, but if interest rates stay high for longer, it diminishes the appeal of speculative assets like BTC.

• A decline in consumer sentiment and economic confidence could lead to reduced liquidity in financial markets, limiting Bitcoin’s upside in the short term.

• Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range, and this sentiment-driven dip could push prices toward key support levels.

Looking Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

With final February consumer sentiment data set to be released on February 21, traders will be closely watching whether the trend worsens or stabilizes. Additionally, any new comments from the Federal Reserve on inflation expectations and interest rates will heavily influence market direction.

Conclusion: A Cautious Trading Environment

The sharp drop in consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations have created uncertainty for both traditional and crypto markets. As traders assess the evolving macroeconomic landscape, volatility is likely to remain high. Risk management will be crucial in the coming weeks as markets digest incoming economic data and central bank policy signals.

For now, sentiment remains fragile, and traders should stay alert to any further deterioration in economic indicators that could fuel additional downside pressure in both US30 and BTC.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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15 pips and US30 26 points potential profit in 26 seconds on 4 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 15 pips and US30 moved 26 points on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 4 February 2025.

USDJPY (9 pips)

EURUSD (6 pips)

US30 (26 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover: What Traders Need to Know

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) offers key insights into the U.S. labor market for December 2024. With job openings declining, hiring slowing, and layoffs rising in certain sectors, traders should closely analyze these trends to anticipate market movements.

Key Takeaways for Traders

1. Job Openings Drop to 7.6 Million

• December saw a decrease of 556,000 job openings, bringing the total to 7.6 million.

• This marks a 1.3 million decline over the year, indicating a cooling labor market.

• Sectors Hit Hardest:

  • Professional and business services (-225,000)

  • Healthcare and social assistance (-180,000)

  • Finance and insurance (-136,000)

• Sector Showing Growth:

  • Arts, entertainment, and recreation (+65,000)

• Trader Insight: A declining job openings rate (now at 4.5%) suggests economic slowdown, which could weigh on consumer spending and corporate earnings.

2. Hiring Activity Remains Weak

• The number of hires in December remained flat at 5.5 million, down 325,000 year-over-year.

• Hiring in finance and insurance increased by 48,000, which may indicate resilience in this sector.

• Trader Insight: Weak hiring points to softening corporate growth and potential downward pressure on equities, particularly in sectors with job losses.

3. Separations: Layoffs vs. Quits

• Total separations (quits, layoffs, discharges) held steady at 5.3 million.

• Quits Rate:

  • 2.0% (unchanged)

  • Total quits fell by 242,000 YoY, showing reduced worker confidence.

  • Quits declined in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-42,000), suggesting slowing activity in logistics.

• Layoffs & Discharges:

  • Increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+87,000).

  • Increased in mining and logging (+6,000).

• Trader Insight: Rising layoffs in transportation and warehousing could signal slowing global trade, negatively impacting companies in shipping, logistics, and e-commerce.

Market Implications

Equities:

• Bearish: Sectors seeing major job losses (finance, healthcare, business services) may face weaker earnings.

• Bullish: Companies in entertainment and recreation show hiring growth, suggesting some resilience in consumer discretionary spending.

Fixed Income:

• A softening labor market could lead to increased Federal Reserve dovishness, supporting lower bond yields and a rally in Treasuries.

FX Markets:

• Dollar Weakness? A weakening job market might prompt a less aggressive Fed, potentially denting USD strength.

• Safe Haven Flows: If economic slowdown fears grow, expect flows into JPY and CHF.

Commodities:

• Oil Impact: Increased layoffs in transportation and logistics suggest potential demand weakness, which could weigh on crude prices.

• Gold Strength: Rising economic uncertainty may drive safe-haven demand for gold.

Looking Ahead: January 2025 Report

The next JOLTS report (January 2025) will be released on March 11, 2025. Traders should monitor labor market trends alongside inflation data, GDP growth, and Fed policy shifts for a broader market outlook.

Bottom Line: A cooling labor market is a warning signal for traders. Weaker hiring, falling job openings, and increasing layoffs point to slower economic growth—a potential headwind for risk assets. Stay ahead by adjusting strategies accordingly!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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Start futures #forex fx news #trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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25 pips, US30 90 points and BTC 1018 points potential profit in 40 seconds on 15 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips, US30 moved 90 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1018 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 15 January 2025.

USDJPY (18 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (90 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1018 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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December 2024 CPI Report: Core Inflation Falls Short of Expectations – What It Means for Markets

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024 on January 15, 2025. While headline inflation was in line with expectations, core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in slightly cooler than anticipated. The headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, meeting forecasts. However, core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% expected) and 3.2% year-over-year (vs. 3.3% expected). Here’s a breakdown of the report and its implications for traders.

Headline Takeaways

1. Headline Inflation: The all-items index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting steady inflationary pressures in energy and food prices.

2. Core Inflation Misses: Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the forecasted 0.3%. Year-over-year, core inflation moderated to 3.2%, also below the expected 3.3%.

3. Energy Drives the Headline: Energy prices surged 2.6% month-over-month, with gasoline prices jumping 4.4%, making energy a key driver of the overall CPI increase.

4. Food Inflation Holds Steady: Food prices rose 0.3% month-over-month, with both food at home and food away from home contributing equally to the increase.

Market Implications of Core CPI Miss

Cooling Core Inflation Trends

• The 0.2% month-over-month rise in core CPI marked a modest cooling from the expected 0.3%. Year-over-year, the 3.2% core inflation rate signals gradual easing in underlying price pressures.

• Market Impact: A softer-than-expected core reading could prompt markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, increasing the likelihood of a pause or easing cycle sooner than previously anticipated.

Energy Price Surge Shifts Focus

• Energy prices rose significantly, with a 4.4% increase in gasoline prices dominating the report. However, on a year-over-year basis, energy remains a deflationary factor, down 0.5%.

• Market Impact: Energy-driven headline inflation may not alter the Fed’s trajectory if core inflation continues to cool, but it could buoy commodity markets and inflation-sensitive sectors.

Sector Breakdown

Shelter Remains Elevated

• Shelter costs rose 0.3% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year. Shelter remains the largest contributor to core inflation but showed signs of stabilization.

• Implications for Traders: Persistent shelter inflation could limit the Fed’s flexibility, supporting higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.

Food Prices Steady but Mixed

• Food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%) rose in tandem. Cereals and bakery products saw a sharp rise (+1.2%), while nonalcoholic beverages (-0.4%) and fruits and vegetables (-0.1%) declined.

• Market Impact: Stable food inflation supports consumer purchasing power, benefiting consumer discretionary stocks.

Transportation and Autos Drive Core

• Used cars and trucks rebounded with a 1.2% increase, while new vehicles rose 0.5%. Airline fares surged 3.9%.

• Implications for Traders: Rising auto and transportation costs could impact consumer sentiment and provide short-term tailwinds to related industries.

Fed Policy Implications

With core CPI coming in below expectations, markets may interpret the data as a sign that inflation is moderating toward the Federal Reserve’s target. While headline inflation remains steady, the softer core reading could shift the Fed’s tone toward a more dovish stance, especially if cooling trends persist.

Trading Opportunities

1. Equities: Growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors may gain on expectations of a dovish Fed. Defensive sectors may face headwinds if inflation pressures ease.

2. Bonds: Treasury yields could decline, particularly on the shorter end of the curve, as markets price in reduced rate hike probabilities.

3. Commodities: Energy markets may rally due to the sharp increase in gasoline and natural gas prices. Gold could see gains if inflation expectations moderate.

4. Forex: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) might weaken if traders anticipate a softer Fed policy path.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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35 pips and 210 points potential profit in 80 seconds on 10 January 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 moved around 35 pips and 210 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 10 January 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (16 pips)

US30 (210 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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December 2024 Employment Report: Key Takeaways for Traders

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its December 2024 Employment Situation Report today, revealing a mixed but largely positive labor market. Here’s what traders need to know and how the data could influence markets in the near term.

Key Highlights of the Report

• Nonfarm Payroll Growth:
  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000, beating market expectations. Gains were led by health care, government, social assistance, and retail trade.

• Unemployment Rate:
  The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market despite concerns of potential softening.

• Wage Growth:
  Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month (+10 cents), bringing the annual wage growth to 3.9% year-over-year.

• Labor Force Participation Rate:
  Unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining the same range seen throughout 2024.

Market Implications

1. Equity Markets:

• Bullish Signal: The robust payroll growth could support cyclical sectors like retail, health care, and consumer discretionary.

• Earnings Potential: With strong wage gains and improved retail hiring, markets may see positive sentiment heading into Q1 earnings season.

• Caveat: If wage growth accelerates beyond expectations in future reports, it could reignite inflation fears.

2. Bond Markets:

• The steady unemployment rate and solid job gains could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady. However, continued strength may push yields higher if investors price in a more hawkish Fed stance.

3. Forex Market:

• The U.S. dollar may strengthen in response to better-than-expected job numbers, as it reinforces confidence in the U.S. economy.

• Watch for USD pairs, particularly with currencies of economies that are experiencing slower labor market recoveries.

Sector Breakdown for December 2024

• Health Care (+46,000 jobs): Gains were seen across home health care services (+15,000), nursing care facilities (+14,000), and hospitals (+12,000). This continued sector strength may benefit health care ETFs and equities.

• Retail Trade (+43,000 jobs): A recovery from November’s losses was driven by increases in apparel, general merchandise, and health and personal care stores. Retail-focused traders may view this as a sign of resilient consumer demand.

• Government (+33,000 jobs): Job gains, primarily in state government roles, continued a positive trend, though at a slower pace than in 2023.

• Social Assistance (+23,000 jobs): Continued steady growth here supports the broader theme of demand for care services.

Wage and Workweek Trends

• Average Hourly Earnings: Up $0.10 to $35.69 (+3.9% YoY).

• Production and Nonsupervisory Workers: Wages increased by $0.06 to $30.62, signaling continued earnings momentum for middle-income workers.

However, the average workweek remained at 34.3 hours, unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, indicating stable labor utilization across sectors.

Revisions and Seasonal Adjustments

The revisions for October and November combined resulted in a net downward adjustment of 8,000 jobs. Traders should take note of these recalibrations, which may indicate some volatility in reporting but largely point to a stable employment trend.

Key Risks to Watch

• Fed Policy: Traders should monitor any commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as this report keeps the door open for either policy stability or future tightening if wage pressures persist.

• Economic Slowdown Concerns: While the labor market remains strong, longer-term concerns about a potential slowdown in consumer spending or corporate hiring could affect future payroll reports.

• Global Market Sentiment: The forex and commodity markets could be impacted by how global investors interpret the U.S. labor market’s strength relative to international economic conditions.

Conclusion

The December 2024 employment report reinforces the narrative of a robust U.S. labor market with healthy job creation, stable unemployment, and moderate wage growth. Traders should position themselves for potential equity market gains in cyclical sectors while keeping a close eye on bond yields and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance. The next employment report, scheduled for February 7, 2025, will provide further clues as to whether this momentum can continue into the new year.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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25 pips potential profit in 153 seconds on 7 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 25 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 7 January 2025.

USDJPY (13 pips)

EURUSD (12 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Understanding the Job Market: Insights from the November 2024 JOLTS Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for November 2024, shedding light on the current state of the labor market. Let’s break down the key takeaways and what they mean for job seekers, employers, and policymakers.

Overview of the Labor Market

In November 2024, the number of job openings remained steady at 8.1 million, reflecting minimal month-over-month change but indicating a year-over-year decrease of 833,000 openings. Despite this overall stability, there were notable fluctuations within specific industries that underscore the nuanced nature of the current labor market.

Job Openings: Industry Trends

The job openings rate, at 4.8%, remained largely unchanged. However, there were significant shifts within certain sectors:

• Professional and Business Services: Increased by +273,000 job openings.

• Finance and Insurance: Gained +105,000 new openings.

• Private Educational Services: Increased by +38,000.

• Information Sector: Decreased by -89,000 openings.

These trends suggest continued demand for professionals in service-oriented roles and financial sectors, while industries such as information technology face a reduction in new opportunities.

Hiring Activity

The number of hires in November 2024 stood at 5.3 million, reflecting no significant month-to-month change but marking a year-over-year decline of 300,000 hires. The overall hiring rate remained at 3.3%, signaling a labor market where hiring activity is maintaining a slower but steady pace.

Separations and Quits: A Closer Look

Total separations, which include quits, layoffs, and other types of departures, were 5.1 million in November, down 287,000 from the same period last year. Here’s how the components break down:

• Quits: The number of voluntary resignations dropped to 3.1 million, a decrease of 218,000 over the month and 451,000 over the year. This brought the quits rate to 1.9%, signaling more caution among workers when considering job changes.

• Layoffs and Discharges: These involuntary separations remained at 1.8 million, although this figure represents an increase of 219,000 compared to the previous year. This uptick was particularly noticeable in the accommodation and food services sector, which saw +102,000 additional layoffs and discharges.

The drop in quits suggests a more conservative approach from workers in a period of economic uncertainty, while the rise in layoffs points to possible cost-cutting measures in certain industries.

Impact by Establishment Size

The report also highlighted differences based on company size:

• Small Establishments (1-9 employees): Experienced a decrease in layoffs and discharges.

• Large Establishments (5,000+ employees): Showed little to no change in job openings, hires, or separations, indicating stability in employment patterns for larger employers.

Revisions for October 2024

Revisions to the previous month’s data provided additional clarity:

• Job Openings: Revised upward by 95,000 to 7.8 million.

• Hires: Revised upward by 81,000 to 5.4 million.

• Separations: Revised upward by 45,000 to 5.3 million.

• Within separations, quits were revised downward by 43,000 to 3.3 million, while layoffs and discharges were revised upward by 115,000.

These revisions underscore the importance of ongoing data collection and adjustments as more information becomes available.

What This Means for You

For Job Seekers: The reduction in voluntary quits suggests that fewer people are willing to take the risk of switching jobs. However, opportunities in professional services, finance, and education remain strong.

For Employers: Businesses in certain sectors may need to reconsider hiring and retention strategies to compete for available talent, especially as hiring has slowed but layoffs remain elevated in some industries.

For Policymakers: The increase in layoffs in specific industries and the overall cooling in quits could indicate emerging economic pressures, potentially influencing future policy decisions related to labor and employment.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS report, covering December 2024, is scheduled for release on February 4, 2025. As we head into the new year, it will be critical to monitor how labor trends evolve amid changing economic conditions.

Understanding these data points provides valuable context for navigating the complexities of the labor market. Whether you are planning your next career move or assessing your business’s hiring strategies, staying informed is key to making proactive decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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28 pips potential profit in 222 seconds on 2 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 28 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 2 January 2025.

USDJPY (28 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims: Key Takeaways from the Latest Report

The latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor on unemployment insurance claims, which was embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (Eastern) on January 2, 2025, sheds light on the current labor market conditions as the year begins. The data provides an overview of initial and continued claims, reflecting overall economic trends and providing an indicator of job market stability.

Initial Claims: A Positive Trend

For the week ending December 28, the seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 211,000, marking a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 220,000. This decline in initial claims indicates a promising trend for job seekers and signals a reduction in layoffs and firings.

It is worth noting that the previous week’s claims were adjusted upward by 1,000 from the originally reported 219,000. Despite this revision, the overall decrease in new claims suggests resilience in the labor market.

4-Week Moving Average: Stability in the Trend

The 4-week moving average, a more stable indicator that smooths out weekly volatility, decreased by 3,500 to 223,250. This figure is down from the revised average of 226,750 from the previous week. The modest but steady downward trend in the moving average indicates that the labor market has maintained relative stability over the past month.

Insured Unemployment Rate: Slight Decline

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ending December 21 fell by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. This insured unemployment rate measures the proportion of the labor force currently receiving unemployment benefits and is a key indicator of sustained employment levels.

Continued Claims: Encouraging Decrease

The advance number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims—often referred to as "continued claims"—for the week ending December 21 was 1,844,000, reflecting a decrease of 52,000 from the revised figure of 1,896,000 for the previous week. This decrease in continued claims is another positive sign of improving employment prospects.

The previous week’s continued claims were revised downward by 14,000 from 1,910,000 to 1,896,000. Such downward revisions can reflect better-than-expected retention in the workforce and highlight corrections based on updated data.

4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims

Similarly, the 4-week moving average of continued claims decreased by 6,750 to 1,870,750. This represents a slight improvement from the revised average of 1,877,500 from the previous week. The consistent downward trend over recent weeks further underscores the broader labor market’s ability to absorb job losses and maintain employment growth.

What This Means for the Economy

The latest data on unemployment claims indicates that the job market remains strong despite economic uncertainties. Declining initial and continued claims suggest that layoffs are minimal and that workers who lose their jobs are able to find new employment relatively quickly.

This trend aligns with broader economic indicators that suggest continued growth in the labor market as 2025 begins. While external factors such as inflation and global economic conditions may pose risks, the sustained decrease in unemployment claims points to a healthy job market that supports economic resilience.

Looking Ahead

As the economy moves into the new year, economists and policymakers will closely monitor labor market data to gauge the effects of monetary policies and broader economic shifts. For job seekers, these figures provide a hopeful outlook, indicating that employment opportunities remain abundant.

The next report on unemployment claims will provide further insight into whether this trend continues or shifts. For now, the data shows a labor market that continues to stabilize and strengthen after a year of navigating economic uncertainties.

Stay tuned for future updates as we track key employment trends and what they mean for the broader economy.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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