37 pips potential profit in 8 seconds on 6 December 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 37 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 6 December 2024.

USDJPY (28 pips)

EURUSD (9 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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November 2024 U.S. Employment Report: Key Takeaways and Insights

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its November 2024 Employment Situation Report, highlighting continued growth in the labor market with some mixed signals. Here’s what you need to know:

Job Growth Surges, Led by Health Care and Leisure Industries

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in November, marking a strong rebound from the previous month's modest gain of 36,000. This growth surpasses the 12-month average increase of 186,000, signaling resilience despite broader economic uncertainties. Key contributors included:

• Health Care (+54,000): Growth was driven by ambulatory health care services (+22,000), home health care (+16,000), hospitals (+19,000), and nursing care facilities (+12,000).

• Leisure and Hospitality (+53,000): Food services and drinking places added the bulk of these jobs (+29,000), reflecting ongoing recovery in service-related industries.

• Government (+33,000): Gains were concentrated in state government employment (+20,000).

• Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (+32,000): The return of workers following strike actions fueled this sector’s rebound.

Unemployment Rate Holds Steady, but Challenges Persist

The unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.2%, up from 3.7% a year earlier. There are now 7.1 million unemployed Americans, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market recovery. Notable trends include:

• Long-term Unemployment: This group, defined as those jobless for 27 weeks or more, remains elevated at 1.7 million, making up 23.2% of total unemployed.

• Demographic Insights: Unemployment edged up for Black workers to 6.4%, while other major groups, including Whites (3.8%), Asians (3.8%), and Hispanics (5.3%), showed little change.

Labor Force and Participation Trends

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining a narrow range since late 2023. However, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.6 percentage points over the past year, landing at 59.8%. These metrics suggest some stagnation in workforce engagement.

Retail Trade Slumps as Seasonal Hiring Falters

Retail trade lost 28,000 jobs in November, marking a significant divergence from other industries. Losses were particularly sharp in general merchandise retailers (-15,000), though electronics and appliance retailers posted modest gains (+4,000). This decline could reflect shifting consumer patterns and cautious hiring ahead of the holiday season.

Earnings and Work Hours Tick Up

Wage growth continued at a steady pace, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% to $35.61. Over the past year, wages have risen by 4.0%, providing some relief against inflationary pressures. The average workweek for private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, a positive indicator of labor demand.

Upward Revisions Reflect Stronger Momentum

Revised data for September and October show that employment gains were 56,000 higher than previously reported. September’s total was adjusted up to 255,000, and October’s figure increased to 36,000.

What It All Means

November’s employment report paints a picture of a labor market balancing growth with persistent challenges:

• Encouraging Sectors: Health care, leisure, and government sectors are driving job creation, reflecting the continued demand for essential services.

• Emerging Concerns: Retail trade losses and elevated long-term unemployment suggest pockets of weakness that merit attention.

• Stable Wages: The steady rise in wages is a positive for workers, though it remains to be seen if this can keep pace with inflation and higher living costs.

As we close out 2024, the labor market appears robust but not without its vulnerabilities. Policymakers, businesses, and job seekers will be closely watching December’s report, due on January 10, 2025, to gauge the economy’s trajectory into the new year.

Stay tuned for more updates on labor market trends and insights!

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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18 pips potential profit in 3 seconds on 3 December 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 18 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 3 December 2024.

USDJPY (15 pips)

EURUSD (3 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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October 2024 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report: What You Need to Know

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for October 2024, and the data highlights some key trends in the U.S. labor market. While overall movement was subdued, there were notable shifts in specific sectors and categories. Here's a breakdown of what the numbers tell us about the current state of employment.

1. Job Openings Hold Steady but Show Yearly Decline

On the last business day of October 2024, there were 7.7 million job openings, a figure relatively unchanged from the previous month. However, compared to the same time last year, job openings have declined by 941,000, reflecting a possible cooling in labor demand.

Key changes by sector:

• Increases:

  • Professional and business services: +209,000

  • Accommodation and food services: +162,000

  • Information: +87,000

• Decrease:

  • Federal government: -26,000

The job openings rate remained steady at 4.6%, a potential sign that employers are cautious about expanding their workforce.

2. Hiring Trends: Slight Decline Over the Year

The number of hires remained unchanged at 5.3 million in October but has dropped by 501,000 over the past year. This marks a continued trend of slower hiring. The hires rate also stayed steady at 3.3%, reflecting limited changes in the pace of workforce growth.

Noteworthy sectoral shifts:

• Decline in private educational services: -24,000

3. Separations and Quits: Workers Regaining Confidence?

Total separations, which include quits, layoffs, and other reasons, were little changed at 5.3 million but were down 369,000 compared to last year. The total separations rate has held firm at 3.3% for three consecutive months.

A closer look:

• Quits: Increased to 3.3 million (+228,000 over the month), raising the quits rate to 2.1%. This could indicate growing confidence among workers to leave their jobs for better opportunities.

  • Biggest rise in quits: Accommodation and food services (+90,000)

• Layoffs and Discharges: Stable at 1.6 million (1.0% rate), though retail trade saw an increase (+60,000), while durable goods manufacturing (-37,000) and private educational services (-14,000) declined.

4. Establishment Size Matters

When breaking down the data by establishment size:

• Small businesses (1–9 employees): Saw a decrease in the hires rate.

• Large organizations (5,000+ employees): Little to no change across job openings, hires, quits, and separations, reflecting more stability.

5. September Revisions: Adjustments Reflect New Data

As is common, revisions were made to the September 2024 figures:

• Job openings were revised down by 71,000 to 7.4 million.

• Hires were revised up by 24,000 to 5.6 million.

• Separations remained unchanged at 5.2 million.

  • Notably, quits were revised upward by 27,000, while layoffs and discharges saw a downward revision of 31,000.

What This Means for Employers and Workers

For employers:

• The relatively stable job openings and hiring rates suggest caution in expanding payrolls, despite sectoral variations.

• Industries like accommodation and food services are seeing a surge in quits, potentially signaling challenges in retaining workers.

For workers:

• The uptick in quits indicates a possible increase in confidence, as employees feel more comfortable exploring new opportunities.

• Stable layoffs and discharges suggest a degree of security for most employed individuals.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS release, covering November 2024, is scheduled for January 7, 2025. As we head into the new year, it will be important to watch whether these trends hold steady or shift in response to broader economic developments.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the labor market continues to evolve.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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31 pips potential profit in 43 seconds on 14 November 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 31 pips on US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) data on 14 November 2024.

USDJPY (20 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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October 2024 Producer Price Index Report: Key Takeaways and Insights

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Producer Price Index (PPI) report for October 2024, highlighting an incremental rise in wholesale prices across several categories. The report provides a valuable gauge of inflation trends within the economy as it captures the price changes from producers' perspectives. Let’s dive into the major insights and explore what they mean for businesses, policymakers, and consumers.

Overview of the October PPI Data

The PPI for final demand rose by 0.2% in October, following a modest increase of 0.1% in September. Over the past 12 months, the final demand index rose by 2.4%, signaling steady, though contained, inflationary pressures on the production side. Excluding the more volatile food, energy, and trade services, the index increased by 0.3% in October and 3.5% year-over-year, indicating some underlying inflation in core producer prices.

Final Demand Services: Primary Driver of October's Price Increase

A significant portion of the October PPI increase stemmed from final demand services, which advanced by 0.3%. This rise marks a steady increase from previous months and reflects broad-based price gains within service sectors:

• Services excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing showed a 0.3% increase, leading the rise in service prices.

• Transportation and warehousing services experienced a 0.5% price hike, indicating higher operating costs within logistics networks.

• Portfolio management services saw a notable 3.6% price increase, contributing significantly to the overall rise in service prices.

This uptick in service-related costs can affect businesses reliant on professional services, financial services, and logistics, potentially impacting prices downstream.

Final Demand Goods: A Modest Rise in Prices

The index for final demand goods increased slightly by 0.1% in October after consecutive declines. Notably:

• Goods excluding food and energy climbed by 0.3%, suggesting steady demand for manufactured goods.

• Energy prices fell by 0.3%, while food prices saw a modest decrease of 0.2%.

The standout here was the 8.4% jump in the price of carbon steel scrap, reflecting price fluctuations in raw materials that could affect various industries, including construction and manufacturing.

Intermediate Demand Insights: Processed and Unprocessed Goods Climb Higher

Intermediate demand, representing the cost of goods and services in the production process, displayed varied trends:

• Processed goods for intermediate demand rose by 0.5% after two months of declines, largely due to higher prices for processed materials excluding food and energy. Year-over-year, however, processed goods have declined by 1.2%.

• Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand saw a more significant jump of 4.1%, the largest since August 2022. A 9.9% increase in energy materials, particularly crude petroleum, drove this rise.

These price increases at the intermediate stage may signal cost pressures on manufacturers and suppliers, likely influencing prices for consumers and businesses in the near future.

Stages of Production Analysis

Examining the PPI by production stages provides additional insight into where price changes are occurring in the supply chain:

• Stage 4 intermediate demand (goods closest to final production) rose 0.2%, with notable increases in diesel fuel and rents for office and retail properties.

• Stage 3 intermediate demand climbed by 0.5%, driven by goods inputs like diesel fuel and slaughter poultry.

• Stage 2 intermediate demand increased by 1.5%, with goods inputs up by 3.8% due to jumps in crude petroleum and carbon steel scrap.

• Stage 1 intermediate demand showed a 0.3% rise, propelled by higher prices for airline passenger services and carbon steel scrap.

What These Trends Mean for the Economy

The steady increases in October’s PPI, particularly within services and intermediate goods, suggest that inflationary pressures are present but not severe. Here’s what this could mean for different stakeholders:

1. For businesses: Rising input costs, especially in services and core goods, may lead to increased expenses for production and logistics. Businesses may need to consider cost-management strategies or price adjustments to maintain margins.

2. For policymakers: The continued rise in core PPI components could influence monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve may view these trends as an indication of persistent inflation within the supply chain, potentially affecting interest rate policies.

3. For consumers: While direct consumer prices aren’t covered in the PPI, higher production costs can often translate into retail price increases. Consumers may notice price adjustments in areas affected by rising wholesale service costs, including travel, healthcare, and retail products.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch for in November

The next PPI release, scheduled for December 12, 2024, will reveal if these inflationary pressures persist into the year’s final quarter. Key areas to monitor include:

• Service sector trends: As services remain a major factor in the overall PPI, any shifts here could influence broader price stability.

• Intermediate demand for goods: Further rises in intermediate demand could signal ongoing supply chain pressures, especially if energy costs remain volatile.

In sum, October’s PPI report underscores that while inflationary pressures are present, they remain relatively contained and sector-specific. By keeping an eye on these trends, businesses and consumers can better anticipate potential price changes as the economy progresses into 2024.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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54 pips potential profit in 11 seconds on 13 November 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 November 2024.

USDJPY (32 pips)

EURUSD (22 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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October 2024 CPI Report: Key Highlights and Insights

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals modest inflationary trends in October, showing a steady pace in prices with an overall increase of 0.2% for the month, consistent with the previous three months. This brings the year-over-year increase for all items to 2.6%, marking a slight acceleration from the 2.4% reported for September. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind October’s CPI numbers and what it could mean for consumers and the economy.

Shelter Costs Remain a Key Driver of Inflation

Shelter costs, a substantial portion of the CPI, rose 0.4% in October. This increase accounted for more than half of the overall rise in the CPI for the month. Over the past 12 months, shelter costs have climbed by 4.9%, contributing significantly to the core inflation measure (all items less food and energy), which rose 3.3% year-over-year. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent both increased by 0.4% in October, reflecting the persistent upward pressure in housing costs.

Food Prices Continue to Climb, but at a Slower Pace

The food index increased by 0.2% in October, a slight slowdown from September’s 0.4% rise. Prices for food at home edged up 0.1%, with notable increases in cereals and bakery products (+1.0%) and dairy (+1.0%), as well as fruits and vegetables (+0.4%). However, the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index fell 1.2%, driven by a sharp 6.4% decrease in egg prices. For food away from home, including restaurant meals, prices rose 0.2%. Over the past year, food prices have risen by 2.1%.

Energy Index Stays Flat After Recent Declines

Following a 1.9% decline in September, the energy index remained unchanged in October, bringing some stability after several months of fluctuation. Gasoline prices continued their decline with a 0.9% drop, contributing to the 12.2% decrease over the past year. Fuel oil also saw a notable reduction, with prices down by 20.8% over the last 12 months. However, the cost of electricity increased 1.2% for the month and has risen by 4.5% over the year, while natural gas increased by 0.3% in October, up 2.0% year-over-year.

Core CPI Sees Steady Growth, Driven by Services and Transportation

The core CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, rose by 0.3% in October. Services excluding energy increased 0.3% as well, with significant contributions from shelter and medical care. Used cars and trucks experienced a surprising uptick of 2.7% for the month, after several months of declines. Airline fares also jumped by 3.2%, and medical care services increased by 0.4%.

Apparel, Communication, and Household Furnishings Decline

While the prices of many items rose, some categories saw decreases. Apparel fell by 1.5% in October, following an increase in September, while communication and household furnishings indexes also experienced declines. These decreases helped to offset some of the monthly CPI gains, indicating some price variability across goods and services.

Annual Inflation and Outlook

The CPI report shows a steady 2.6% increase over the past 12 months, reflecting a measured but persistent inflationary environment. The energy index, which has been a source of relief with a 4.9% decrease over the year, helped balance the rise in shelter and other core costs. However, the uptick in core inflation, particularly from services and shelter, suggests ongoing challenges in keeping inflation within target levels.

Looking forward, the November CPI report, scheduled for December 11, will offer further insights into these trends. Key areas to watch will include the energy index, as seasonal adjustments for heating costs take effect, and shelter, which remains a major factor in inflation. The CPI data continues to be an essential gauge for understanding the economic pressures on consumers and will likely influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in the coming months.

In Summary

October’s CPI data suggests a stable but gradually rising inflation environment, with shelter costs as the dominant force. Food prices continue to rise moderately, while energy costs remain volatile but stable for now. As inflation remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target, policymakers and consumers alike will be keeping a close eye on these trends heading into the winter months.

Stay tuned for our next update following the release of November’s CPI data, as we continue to track the evolving inflation landscape and its implications for everyday life and economic policy.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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16 pips potential profit in 12 seconds on 30 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 16 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 30 October 2024.

USDJPY (12 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Understanding the U.S. Economy: A Look at Q3 2024's GDP Performance

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has just released its “advance” estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2024, and there’s plenty to unpack. This preliminary figure provides valuable insight into the economic health of the country, although it’s essential to note that these numbers can be revised as more complete data becomes available.

Key Takeaways from Q3 2024 GDP Data

Real GDP in the U.S. grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. While this reflects steady growth, it’s a slight deceleration from the 3.0% increase seen in the second quarter. This slowing momentum was primarily attributed to a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. However, bright spots included boosts in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending.

Breaking Down the Numbers

1. Consumer Spending: This remained a significant driver of GDP growth, with contributions from both goods and services. Within the goods category, notable increases were seen in non-durable goods, particularly prescription drugs, and motor vehicles and parts. The services sector saw gains primarily in health care—specifically outpatient services—and food services and accommodations.

2. Exports: The surge in exports was led by capital goods, excluding automotive products, signaling robust demand for U.S. products overseas.

3. Federal Government Spending: An increase in defense spending helped bolster overall federal spending, contributing positively to the GDP figure.

4. Imports: It’s worth noting that imports also increased during this period, and since imports are subtracted in the GDP calculation, this rise partly offset the other gains.

What’s Behind the Deceleration?

While consumer spending and exports gained traction, the third quarter saw a notable reduction in private inventory investment. This suggests that businesses might be treading cautiously, perhaps in response to economic uncertainties or inventory management strategies. Additionally, the decrease in residential fixed investment indicates continued challenges in the housing market, which has been a trend in recent quarters.

Current-Dollar GDP and Price Indices

In terms of current-dollar GDP, the economy expanded by 4.7%, translating to an increase of $333.2 billion, bringing the total to $29.35 trillion. This was a step down from the 5.6% growth recorded in the second quarter.

Inflationary pressures showed signs of easing in Q3. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by just 1.8%, down from 2.4% in the previous quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure for consumer prices, rose by 1.5%, a significant drop from the 2.5% in Q2. When food and energy were excluded, the PCE price index marked a 2.2% increase, compared to 2.8% in Q2.

Personal Income and Savings

Personal income continued to grow but at a slower pace, increasing by $221.3 billion in Q3 compared to $315.7 billion in Q2. The rise was largely driven by higher compensation. Real disposable personal income, adjusted for inflation, increased by 1.6% following a 2.4% rise in the previous quarter.

The personal saving rate—a gauge of how much income households are saving—dropped to 4.8%, down from 5.2% in Q2. This decline could indicate that consumers are tapping into their savings more to sustain spending in the face of income pressures or shifting economic conditions.

What’s Next?

The “second” estimate for Q3 2024, which will include more comprehensive data, is set for release on November 27, 2024. This revision will offer a clearer picture of economic trends and potential adjustments to today’s figures. Alongside it, the BEA will release a preliminary estimate for corporate profits, adding more context to the overall economic landscape.

Final Thoughts

The U.S. economy showed solid yet slightly moderated growth in Q3 2024, signaling resilience despite facing various headwinds. Consumers continued to spend, the federal government increased its investments, and exports remained robust, showcasing strength in multiple sectors. However, cautionary trends, such as the dip in private inventory investment and the slowdown in income growth, suggest that businesses and consumers are navigating an uncertain economic climate. The coming months and further data will provide deeper insights into whether this moderation is temporary or indicative of a broader economic trend.

Stay tuned for the BEA’s next release on November 27 for a more refined view of the third quarter and a look at corporate profit trends.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate

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15 pips potential profit in 6 seconds on 29 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 15 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 29 October 2024.

USDJPY (11 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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September 2024 Job Market Insights: Steady Openings, Slow Hiring, and a Mixed Separation Picture

The U.S. job market showed signs of stability in September 2024, with job openings holding relatively steady at 7.4 million, slightly below August’s revised estimate of 7.9 million. The recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives insight into key labor dynamics, including the balance of job openings, hiring, and separations, while revealing subtle shifts across industries and employer sizes.

Here’s a closer look at what September’s data tells us about the current labor landscape.

Job Openings: Stable but Slower Than Last Year

The number of available jobs in September remained virtually unchanged at 7.4 million, though the year-over-year decline—down by 1.9 million—suggests a gradual cooling in labor demand. The job openings rate held steady at 4.5%. Health care, social assistance, and government roles saw the most significant drops in job postings, with decreases in sectors like state and local government (down by 79,000) and the federal government (down by 28,000). Interestingly, finance and insurance bucked the trend, gaining 85,000 openings in the month.

This dip in job openings across several fields may indicate a shift as employers scale back hiring plans amid economic uncertainties.

Hiring Holds Steady

Hiring rates also saw little movement, with a total of 5.6 million hires in September, consistent with August’s levels. At a hiring rate of 3.5%, employers appear cautious, holding back on aggressive hiring despite the availability of open positions. This measured hiring approach could reflect a shift in focus toward retaining and optimizing current staff, particularly in industries experiencing labor shortages.

Separations: Mixed Signals in Quits and Layoffs

The separation rate remained flat at 5.2 million, though there were intriguing shifts within the categories:

• Quits: The quit rate, a key indicator of worker confidence, held at 1.9%, with 3.1 million workers voluntarily leaving their roles. Notably, quits in professional and business services declined by 94,000, while sectors like state and local government (excluding education) and real estate saw slight increases in voluntary separations. Year-over-year, quits have dropped by 525,000, suggesting workers may be more inclined to stay put, potentially due to a perceived lack of new opportunities or concerns about economic volatility.

• Layoffs and Discharges: Layoffs and discharges remained at 1.8 million, but the year-over-year comparison reveals a jump of 238,000, with notable layoffs in durable goods manufacturing (+46,000). The layoffs and discharges rate inched up to 1.2%, signaling that certain sectors are actively reassessing workforce needs as demand fluctuates.

Other forms of separations, such as retirements, deaths, and relocations, remained mostly static, with 292,000 reported in September.

Trends by Establishment Size

Smaller establishments with fewer than 10 employees saw little movement in job openings, hires, or quits, though their layoffs and discharges rate did rise. On the opposite end of the spectrum, large companies (5,000+ employees) also saw little variation in their openings, hires, and separations rates, possibly indicating an advantage in workforce stability and access to resources for larger employers.

Revisions for August 2024

The BLS revised its August estimates, adjusting job openings downward to 7.9 million, while hires were revised up to 5.4 million. The upward revision in separations, particularly in quits and layoffs, provides further insight into the workforce adjustments underway as employers and workers navigate a changing economic landscape.

What This Means for Workers and Employers

September’s data paints a picture of a job market that’s stabilizing after rapid shifts in recent years. For job seekers, the steady job openings rate and gradual decline in quits could suggest that competition for roles remains robust. Employers, meanwhile, appear to be more conservative in their hiring strategies, focusing on retaining current employees while selectively filling roles in sectors like finance and insurance.

Looking ahead, the labor market’s trajectory may continue on this path of moderation. For workers, it could mean fewer opportunities for job-hopping, while employers may increasingly emphasize retaining and training existing staff.

As we await the next JOLTS release on December 3, 2024, it’s clear that flexibility and adaptability remain crucial in navigating today’s dynamic job market.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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24 pips potential profit in 5 seconds on 24 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 24 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 24 October 2024.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (5 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims Report: A Look at the Latest Trends

In the latest report released on October 19, 2024, the U.S. Department of Labor provided an overview of the unemployment insurance claims for the week. The data reveals mixed signals, with a notable drop in initial claims but an increase in the overall number of people receiving unemployment benefits. Let’s dive into the key highlights and what they mean for the labor market.

Initial Unemployment Claims Drop

One of the most encouraging pieces of data from this report is the drop in seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims. For the week ending on October 19, the number of new claims fell by 15,000 to a total of 227,000. This decrease follows the previous week’s revised figure, which was adjusted up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000.

The decline in initial claims suggests that fewer people are being laid off or forced to file for unemployment benefits, which could be a positive sign of labor market stability. Despite the slight upward revision for the previous week, this drop signals potential improvements in job security.

4-Week Moving Average: A Slight Increase

While the weekly initial claims showed a decrease, the 4-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, saw a slight increase. The new average is now 238,500, up by 2,000 from the prior week’s revised average of 236,500. This uptick indicates that, while the weekly data looks favorable, the overall trend in unemployment claims remains steady, with no major swings in either direction.

Insured Unemployment Rises

The report also highlights a rise in the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate, which refers to the percentage of people currently receiving unemployment benefits relative to the total labor force. For the week ending October 12, the insured unemployment rate increased to 1.3%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the prior week’s unrevised rate. This may suggest that, while fewer people are filing new claims, the number of those remaining on unemployment rolls has grown.

The advance number of people receiving unemployment benefits, known as "insured unemployment," increased by 28,000 to 1,897,000, marking the highest level since November 2021. The previous week’s level was also revised upward by 2,000, indicating a trend of more individuals staying on unemployment for a longer period. This uptick could reflect challenges in finding new employment or could be the result of broader economic shifts affecting certain sectors.

What Does This Mean for the Labor Market?

The mixed nature of the report suggests a labor market that is neither deteriorating rapidly nor improving dramatically. On one hand, the drop in initial claims points to some resilience, as fewer workers are filing for unemployment benefits. On the other hand, the increase in continuing claims indicates that once unemployed, some individuals are struggling to find new jobs quickly.

Several factors could explain this trend. Rising insured unemployment could be attributed to specific industries facing downturns or seasonal fluctuations. Additionally, some workers may be staying in unemployment longer due to mismatches between available jobs and their skills or geographic location.

Conclusion

This week's unemployment claims report offers a snapshot of a labor market that remains in flux. While fewer workers are filing new claims, more are remaining on the unemployment rolls, leading to an overall rise in insured unemployment. As always, it’s important to keep an eye on both the short-term fluctuations and the long-term trends to get a clearer picture of the health of the job market.

For businesses and policymakers, these numbers highlight the importance of addressing both the immediate needs of unemployed workers and the underlying structural issues that could be contributing to the rising insured unemployment rate. Moving forward, the labor market will need to show more sustained improvements to ensure that more people can find stable, long-term employment.

Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor these trends and their implications for the broader economy!

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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47 pips potential profit in 91 seconds on 17 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims and US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey data on 17 October 2024.

USDJPY (32 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Economic Insights: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, and Manufacturing Outlook – October 17, 2024

Today, three significant economic reports were released, shedding light on the current state of U.S. retail, labor, and manufacturing sectors. These reports provide a snapshot of key economic indicators—retail sales performance, unemployment insurance claims, and regional manufacturing activity. Let’s break down each release to understand their implications and what they mean for the broader U.S. economy.

1. U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales - September 2024

The U.S. retail and food services sector continues to exhibit moderate growth, with September 2024 sales reaching $714.4 billion. This reflects a 0.4% increase from August 2024, and a 1.7% increase compared to September 2023. Over the three-month period from July to September, total sales grew 2.3% year-over-year, indicating a steady consumer demand despite economic headwinds.

Key highlights:

• Nonstore retailers (e.g., e-commerce) showed remarkable resilience, posting a 7.1% year-over-year growth.

• Food services and drinking places also saw an uptick, growing 3.7% from September 2023.

• Traditional retail trade sales rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year.

While the growth was moderate, the steady increase reflects resilience in consumer spending, a critical driver of economic activity in the U.S. economy. It will be important to monitor holiday season sales, as they could further influence retail performance into the year’s end.

2. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims - October 12, 2024

The labor market remains a focal point of economic analysis, and today’s unemployment insurance claims report offers some encouraging news. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 12 decreased by 19,000 to 241,000, suggesting a stabilization in labor market conditions. While this is a positive sign, the four-week moving average—considered a more reliable indicator—rose slightly to 236,250, indicating some lingering volatility.

Other key labor data:

• The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2% for the week ending October 5.

• Continuing claims (insured unemployment) rose by 9,000 to 1.867 million, signaling a slight increase in the number of individuals staying on unemployment benefits.

• Despite this, the overall trend shows a labor market that remains robust, albeit with some fluctuations.

This drop in new claims aligns with the broader narrative of a tight labor market where employers are still holding on to workers despite broader economic uncertainty. However, as the Federal Reserve continues its balancing act between inflation control and employment growth, it will be important to watch whether these positive trends continue into the final months of 2024.

3. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey - October 2024

The October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reveals encouraging signs of expansion in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic region. The index for general activity surged to 10.3, up from 1.7 in September, marking a second consecutive month of growth. After a brief decline last month, both the new orders index (14.2) and shipments index (7.4) returned to positive territory, signaling renewed demand.

However, some challenges remain:

• The employment index declined into negative territory at -2.2, suggesting that while most firms are maintaining steady employment, a small share of manufacturers are reducing their workforce.

• Price pressures continue to persist, though the index for prices paid (input costs) dropped to 29.7, indicating a slight easing of inflationary pressures.

Looking ahead, manufacturers expressed optimism about future growth. The diffusion index for future general activity jumped to 36.7, with 47% of firms expecting increased activity over the next six months. This optimism is also reflected in anticipated capital expenditures for 2025, with 52% of firms planning to increase investments, particularly in software, hardware, and noncomputer equipment.

What Does This Mean for the Economy?

The combination of rising retail sales, stable unemployment claims, and expanding manufacturing activity paints a cautiously optimistic picture of the U.S. economy. While the labor market is still showing some signs of fluctuation, the underlying trends in consumer spending and manufacturing indicate resilience in key sectors.

The retail sector continues to grow, albeit modestly, suggesting consumers are still driving the economy forward. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector is showing renewed strength, particularly in demand for goods. Labor markets remain tight, but the slight increase in continuing unemployment claims suggests there may still be some room for concern.

As we head into the holiday season and the final quarter of 2024, these reports will serve as important benchmarks for policymakers and investors. Will consumer demand stay strong? Can manufacturers keep pace with rising orders? And will labor markets continue to hold up against potential economic headwinds? These are the questions to keep an eye on as we move into 2025.

Stay tuned for further updates as more data emerges and economic conditions evolve.

Sources: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html, https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2024-10

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126 pips potential profit in 52 seconds on 4 October 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 126 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 4 October 2024.

USDJPY (93 pips)

EURUSD (33 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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September 2024 Employment Report: Key Highlights and Insights

The U.S. job market continued to show resilience in September 2024, with total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 254,000 jobs. This growth marks a stronger-than-average monthly gain, outpacing the 203,000 average of the past 12 months. The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%, reflecting a relatively stable labor market despite ongoing economic pressures and a significant weather event.

Noteworthy Sectors Leading Job Growth

Several key industries contributed to September's employment gains:

1. Food Services and Drinking Places: This sector saw a remarkable increase of 69,000 jobs, a substantial jump compared to its prior 12-month average of 14,000 jobs per month. This may suggest a resurgence in consumer spending on dining out, possibly influenced by seasonal factors or recovering demand following earlier economic fluctuations.

2. Health Care: Adding 45,000 jobs, this sector experienced slightly slower growth than its recent monthly average of 57,000. Key areas of hiring included:

   • Home health care services (+13,000)

   • Hospitals (+12,000)

   • Nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000)

3. Government: Employment in the public sector grew by 31,000, driven largely by gains in local (+16,000) and state (+13,000) government jobs. While this is positive, it remains below the prior 12-month average gain of 45,000.

4. Social Assistance: Adding 27,000 jobs, this sector's growth was focused primarily on individual and family services (+21,000). This reflects the growing need for support services in communities, highlighting social and demographic changes driving demand.

5. Construction: Employment rose by 25,000 jobs, continuing a steady trend of growth in the industry, fueled largely by nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+17,000). This aligns with broader infrastructure development efforts across the country.

Stable Sectors and Broader Labor Trends

While certain industries showed significant gains, others remained stable with little change in employment. These include mining, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and professional and business services.

Despite the steady job creation, unemployment held at 4.1%, equating to about 6.8 million unemployed individuals. This is higher than a year ago when the jobless rate was 3.8%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. The number of long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or more, remained at 1.6 million, representing 23.7% of all unemployed individuals.

Moreover, the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7%, a sign that the overall percentage of Americans either working or actively looking for work has stabilized, though it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Economic Indicators Beyond Job Creation

Several additional data points from the report shed light on broader labor market dynamics:

• Wages: The average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 13 cents, or 0.4%, reaching $35.36. Year over year, wages have risen by 4.0%, indicating that wages are keeping pace with inflationary pressures.

• Workweek: The average workweek for all private-sector employees edged down slightly to 34.2 hours, while the manufacturing workweek remained steady at 40.0 hours.

Impact of Hurricane Francine

Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in southern Louisiana on September 11, had no discernible effect on national payroll employment, hours, or earnings, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Despite the storm's impact on local areas, national survey response rates remained within normal ranges, suggesting limited disruption at the national level. However, it will be important to monitor the October and November reports for any delayed effects in the regional labor markets most affected by the hurricane.

Revisions to Prior Data

The BLS also revised upward the employment changes for July and August by a combined 72,000 jobs. This upward revision highlights the challenges of gathering accurate, timely data, especially in the midst of economic uncertainty, but also reinforces the underlying strength of the job market over the summer months.

Looking Ahead

As we move toward the end of 2024, the labor market continues to exhibit signs of stability, though potential challenges remain. Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and external factors like extreme weather events could still influence employment trends in the coming months. The upcoming October 2024 employment report will provide further insights into how the job market is evolving and whether the current trajectory of growth can be sustained through the end of the year.

In the meantime, this month's report offers encouraging news for several key industries, particularly in service sectors like food, health care, and social assistance. Despite some broader economic concerns, the U.S. labor market remains on a solid footing.

Stay tuned for the next report on November 1, 2024, for the latest updates and analysis on the nation's employment situation.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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62 pips potential profit in 46 seconds on 18 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 62 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 18 September 2024.

USDJPY (47 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Update: September 18, 2024 - A Closer Look at Economic Projections and Policy Adjustments

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest projections and made an important adjustment to the federal funds rate. These changes reflect the committee’s ongoing efforts to navigate a complex economic landscape while balancing its dual mandate—promoting maximum employment and stabilizing inflation around its 2% target.

Summary of Economic Projections

The FOMC's summary of economic projections provides a window into the future, outlining expectations for key economic indicators such as real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate through 2027. Here's a breakdown of the main highlights:

1. Real GDP Growth

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The median real GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 2.0% each year from 2024 through 2027. The longer-run projection sits slightly lower at 1.8%.

• Comparison to June Projections: The September projections show slight moderation compared to the June meeting, where 2024's GDP growth was expected to hit 2.1%.

• Key Takeaway: Despite some fluctuations earlier in the year, growth is expected to stabilize, reflecting resilience in the broader economy, even as global and domestic challenges persist.

2. Unemployment Rate

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The unemployment rate is projected to hover around 4.4% in 2024 and 2025, gradually falling to 4.2% by 2027. The longer-run forecast stabilizes at 4.2%.

• Comparison to June Projections: This is an upward revision from June’s projection of 4.0% for 2024, signaling a softer labor market.

• Key Takeaway: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up slightly, it remains low by historical standards, indicating a robust labor market.

3. Inflation (PCE and Core PCE)

• 2024-2027 Forecast: Headline PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3% in 2024, gradually tapering to 2.0% by 2026 and beyond. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to fall from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2026 and remain there.

• Comparison to June Projections: The September report reveals a more optimistic outlook for inflation, with PCE and core PCE projections slightly lower than June.

• Key Takeaway: Inflation has made significant progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, signaling that the Fed's tightening policies are having the desired effect.

4. Federal Funds Rate

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The FOMC projects a median federal funds rate of 4.4% for 2024, falling to 3.4% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. The longer-run forecast stands at 2.9%.

• Key Takeaway: After aggressive rate hikes in 2023, the Fed is signaling a more accommodative policy stance in the coming years as inflation moderates.

Monetary Policy Update: Rate Cut Announced

In a noteworthy move, the FOMC decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, bringing it down to 4.75%–5.00%. This is the first rate cut since the aggressive rate hikes began in response to pandemic-related inflation surges. The committee cited progress on inflation and balanced risks as reasons for the decision.

Why Now?

• Progress on Inflation: The FOMC expressed greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target, allowing room for easing. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Fed remains cautious.

• Economic Activity: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has increased slightly, economic activity is still expanding at a solid pace. This balance supports a more gradual easing in monetary policy.

• Balanced Risks: The FOMC acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, but the risks to achieving its goals of full employment and stable prices are now seen as more balanced.

Dissenting View

Michelle W. Bowman, one of the committee members, voted against the 0.5% rate cut, preferring a more cautious reduction of 0.25 percentage points. This reflects some lingering concerns about inflationary pressures and the need to stay vigilant.

Looking Ahead

The FOMC's projections suggest that the U.S. economy is on a stable path, with inflation gradually cooling and the labor market remaining resilient despite slight upticks in the unemployment rate. As inflation continues to converge toward the 2% target, the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious but flexible approach, carefully assessing incoming data to adjust its policy as necessary.

While today’s rate cut marks a shift toward a more accommodative policy stance, the committee remains committed to balancing its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The path of future rate adjustments will depend on evolving economic conditions, particularly inflationary trends and labor market dynamics.

As always, we’ll keep a close watch on future FOMC meetings and their implications for the economy, businesses, and consumers alike.

Stay tuned for more updates as the economic outlook continues to evolve!

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20240918.htm

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