47 pips potential profit in 91 seconds on 17 October 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims and US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey data on 17 October 2024.

USDJPY (32 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Economic Insights: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, and Manufacturing Outlook – October 17, 2024

Today, three significant economic reports were released, shedding light on the current state of U.S. retail, labor, and manufacturing sectors. These reports provide a snapshot of key economic indicators—retail sales performance, unemployment insurance claims, and regional manufacturing activity. Let’s break down each release to understand their implications and what they mean for the broader U.S. economy.

1. U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales - September 2024

The U.S. retail and food services sector continues to exhibit moderate growth, with September 2024 sales reaching $714.4 billion. This reflects a 0.4% increase from August 2024, and a 1.7% increase compared to September 2023. Over the three-month period from July to September, total sales grew 2.3% year-over-year, indicating a steady consumer demand despite economic headwinds.

Key highlights:

• Nonstore retailers (e.g., e-commerce) showed remarkable resilience, posting a 7.1% year-over-year growth.

• Food services and drinking places also saw an uptick, growing 3.7% from September 2023.

• Traditional retail trade sales rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year.

While the growth was moderate, the steady increase reflects resilience in consumer spending, a critical driver of economic activity in the U.S. economy. It will be important to monitor holiday season sales, as they could further influence retail performance into the year’s end.

2. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims - October 12, 2024

The labor market remains a focal point of economic analysis, and today’s unemployment insurance claims report offers some encouraging news. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 12 decreased by 19,000 to 241,000, suggesting a stabilization in labor market conditions. While this is a positive sign, the four-week moving average—considered a more reliable indicator—rose slightly to 236,250, indicating some lingering volatility.

Other key labor data:

• The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2% for the week ending October 5.

• Continuing claims (insured unemployment) rose by 9,000 to 1.867 million, signaling a slight increase in the number of individuals staying on unemployment benefits.

• Despite this, the overall trend shows a labor market that remains robust, albeit with some fluctuations.

This drop in new claims aligns with the broader narrative of a tight labor market where employers are still holding on to workers despite broader economic uncertainty. However, as the Federal Reserve continues its balancing act between inflation control and employment growth, it will be important to watch whether these positive trends continue into the final months of 2024.

3. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey - October 2024

The October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reveals encouraging signs of expansion in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic region. The index for general activity surged to 10.3, up from 1.7 in September, marking a second consecutive month of growth. After a brief decline last month, both the new orders index (14.2) and shipments index (7.4) returned to positive territory, signaling renewed demand.

However, some challenges remain:

• The employment index declined into negative territory at -2.2, suggesting that while most firms are maintaining steady employment, a small share of manufacturers are reducing their workforce.

• Price pressures continue to persist, though the index for prices paid (input costs) dropped to 29.7, indicating a slight easing of inflationary pressures.

Looking ahead, manufacturers expressed optimism about future growth. The diffusion index for future general activity jumped to 36.7, with 47% of firms expecting increased activity over the next six months. This optimism is also reflected in anticipated capital expenditures for 2025, with 52% of firms planning to increase investments, particularly in software, hardware, and noncomputer equipment.

What Does This Mean for the Economy?

The combination of rising retail sales, stable unemployment claims, and expanding manufacturing activity paints a cautiously optimistic picture of the U.S. economy. While the labor market is still showing some signs of fluctuation, the underlying trends in consumer spending and manufacturing indicate resilience in key sectors.

The retail sector continues to grow, albeit modestly, suggesting consumers are still driving the economy forward. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector is showing renewed strength, particularly in demand for goods. Labor markets remain tight, but the slight increase in continuing unemployment claims suggests there may still be some room for concern.

As we head into the holiday season and the final quarter of 2024, these reports will serve as important benchmarks for policymakers and investors. Will consumer demand stay strong? Can manufacturers keep pace with rising orders? And will labor markets continue to hold up against potential economic headwinds? These are the questions to keep an eye on as we move into 2025.

Stay tuned for further updates as more data emerges and economic conditions evolve.

Sources: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html, https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf, https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2024-10

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126 pips potential profit in 52 seconds on 4 October 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 126 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 4 October 2024.

USDJPY (93 pips)

EURUSD (33 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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September 2024 Employment Report: Key Highlights and Insights

The U.S. job market continued to show resilience in September 2024, with total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 254,000 jobs. This growth marks a stronger-than-average monthly gain, outpacing the 203,000 average of the past 12 months. The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%, reflecting a relatively stable labor market despite ongoing economic pressures and a significant weather event.

Noteworthy Sectors Leading Job Growth

Several key industries contributed to September's employment gains:

1. Food Services and Drinking Places: This sector saw a remarkable increase of 69,000 jobs, a substantial jump compared to its prior 12-month average of 14,000 jobs per month. This may suggest a resurgence in consumer spending on dining out, possibly influenced by seasonal factors or recovering demand following earlier economic fluctuations.

2. Health Care: Adding 45,000 jobs, this sector experienced slightly slower growth than its recent monthly average of 57,000. Key areas of hiring included:

   • Home health care services (+13,000)

   • Hospitals (+12,000)

   • Nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000)

3. Government: Employment in the public sector grew by 31,000, driven largely by gains in local (+16,000) and state (+13,000) government jobs. While this is positive, it remains below the prior 12-month average gain of 45,000.

4. Social Assistance: Adding 27,000 jobs, this sector's growth was focused primarily on individual and family services (+21,000). This reflects the growing need for support services in communities, highlighting social and demographic changes driving demand.

5. Construction: Employment rose by 25,000 jobs, continuing a steady trend of growth in the industry, fueled largely by nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+17,000). This aligns with broader infrastructure development efforts across the country.

Stable Sectors and Broader Labor Trends

While certain industries showed significant gains, others remained stable with little change in employment. These include mining, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and professional and business services.

Despite the steady job creation, unemployment held at 4.1%, equating to about 6.8 million unemployed individuals. This is higher than a year ago when the jobless rate was 3.8%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. The number of long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or more, remained at 1.6 million, representing 23.7% of all unemployed individuals.

Moreover, the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7%, a sign that the overall percentage of Americans either working or actively looking for work has stabilized, though it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Economic Indicators Beyond Job Creation

Several additional data points from the report shed light on broader labor market dynamics:

• Wages: The average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 13 cents, or 0.4%, reaching $35.36. Year over year, wages have risen by 4.0%, indicating that wages are keeping pace with inflationary pressures.

• Workweek: The average workweek for all private-sector employees edged down slightly to 34.2 hours, while the manufacturing workweek remained steady at 40.0 hours.

Impact of Hurricane Francine

Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in southern Louisiana on September 11, had no discernible effect on national payroll employment, hours, or earnings, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Despite the storm's impact on local areas, national survey response rates remained within normal ranges, suggesting limited disruption at the national level. However, it will be important to monitor the October and November reports for any delayed effects in the regional labor markets most affected by the hurricane.

Revisions to Prior Data

The BLS also revised upward the employment changes for July and August by a combined 72,000 jobs. This upward revision highlights the challenges of gathering accurate, timely data, especially in the midst of economic uncertainty, but also reinforces the underlying strength of the job market over the summer months.

Looking Ahead

As we move toward the end of 2024, the labor market continues to exhibit signs of stability, though potential challenges remain. Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and external factors like extreme weather events could still influence employment trends in the coming months. The upcoming October 2024 employment report will provide further insights into how the job market is evolving and whether the current trajectory of growth can be sustained through the end of the year.

In the meantime, this month's report offers encouraging news for several key industries, particularly in service sectors like food, health care, and social assistance. Despite some broader economic concerns, the U.S. labor market remains on a solid footing.

Stay tuned for the next report on November 1, 2024, for the latest updates and analysis on the nation's employment situation.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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62 pips potential profit in 46 seconds on 18 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 62 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 18 September 2024.

USDJPY (47 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Update: September 18, 2024 - A Closer Look at Economic Projections and Policy Adjustments

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest projections and made an important adjustment to the federal funds rate. These changes reflect the committee’s ongoing efforts to navigate a complex economic landscape while balancing its dual mandate—promoting maximum employment and stabilizing inflation around its 2% target.

Summary of Economic Projections

The FOMC's summary of economic projections provides a window into the future, outlining expectations for key economic indicators such as real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate through 2027. Here's a breakdown of the main highlights:

1. Real GDP Growth

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The median real GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 2.0% each year from 2024 through 2027. The longer-run projection sits slightly lower at 1.8%.

• Comparison to June Projections: The September projections show slight moderation compared to the June meeting, where 2024's GDP growth was expected to hit 2.1%.

• Key Takeaway: Despite some fluctuations earlier in the year, growth is expected to stabilize, reflecting resilience in the broader economy, even as global and domestic challenges persist.

2. Unemployment Rate

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The unemployment rate is projected to hover around 4.4% in 2024 and 2025, gradually falling to 4.2% by 2027. The longer-run forecast stabilizes at 4.2%.

• Comparison to June Projections: This is an upward revision from June’s projection of 4.0% for 2024, signaling a softer labor market.

• Key Takeaway: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up slightly, it remains low by historical standards, indicating a robust labor market.

3. Inflation (PCE and Core PCE)

• 2024-2027 Forecast: Headline PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3% in 2024, gradually tapering to 2.0% by 2026 and beyond. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to fall from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2026 and remain there.

• Comparison to June Projections: The September report reveals a more optimistic outlook for inflation, with PCE and core PCE projections slightly lower than June.

• Key Takeaway: Inflation has made significant progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, signaling that the Fed's tightening policies are having the desired effect.

4. Federal Funds Rate

• 2024-2027 Forecast: The FOMC projects a median federal funds rate of 4.4% for 2024, falling to 3.4% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. The longer-run forecast stands at 2.9%.

• Key Takeaway: After aggressive rate hikes in 2023, the Fed is signaling a more accommodative policy stance in the coming years as inflation moderates.

Monetary Policy Update: Rate Cut Announced

In a noteworthy move, the FOMC decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, bringing it down to 4.75%–5.00%. This is the first rate cut since the aggressive rate hikes began in response to pandemic-related inflation surges. The committee cited progress on inflation and balanced risks as reasons for the decision.

Why Now?

• Progress on Inflation: The FOMC expressed greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target, allowing room for easing. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Fed remains cautious.

• Economic Activity: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has increased slightly, economic activity is still expanding at a solid pace. This balance supports a more gradual easing in monetary policy.

• Balanced Risks: The FOMC acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, but the risks to achieving its goals of full employment and stable prices are now seen as more balanced.

Dissenting View

Michelle W. Bowman, one of the committee members, voted against the 0.5% rate cut, preferring a more cautious reduction of 0.25 percentage points. This reflects some lingering concerns about inflationary pressures and the need to stay vigilant.

Looking Ahead

The FOMC's projections suggest that the U.S. economy is on a stable path, with inflation gradually cooling and the labor market remaining resilient despite slight upticks in the unemployment rate. As inflation continues to converge toward the 2% target, the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious but flexible approach, carefully assessing incoming data to adjust its policy as necessary.

While today’s rate cut marks a shift toward a more accommodative policy stance, the committee remains committed to balancing its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The path of future rate adjustments will depend on evolving economic conditions, particularly inflationary trends and labor market dynamics.

As always, we’ll keep a close watch on future FOMC meetings and their implications for the economy, businesses, and consumers alike.

Stay tuned for more updates as the economic outlook continues to evolve!

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20240918.htm

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27 pips potential profit in 7 seconds on 11 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 27 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 September 2024.

USDJPY (17 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Understanding the Latest CPI Data: Key Takeaways from August 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024 reveals subtle yet important trends in the U.S. economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, maintaining the same rate of increase as observed in July. Over the past 12 months, the index recorded a 2.5 percent increase before seasonal adjustments, marking a relatively modest inflationary trend compared to previous years.

Breakdown of CPI Components:

• Shelter: The cost of shelter continued to be a significant driver of the overall index, rising by 0.5 percent in August, thus contributing majorly to the broader index's movement.

• Food: Food prices saw a slight increase of 0.1 percent, with food away from home experiencing a higher rise of 0.3 percent compared to food at home, which remained unchanged.

• Energy: Contrasting these increases, the energy index fell by 0.8 percent, influenced by a significant drop in gasoline and fuel oil prices.

Year-over-Year Analysis:

• General Index: The all-items index increased by 2.5 percent over the year, the smallest 12-month rise since February 2021, indicating a cooling period after higher inflation rates experienced in recent years.

• Core Inflation: Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation was up by 3.2 percent year-over-year, suggesting underlying pressures remain despite the overall stabilization of the index.

• Specific Categories: Noteworthy annual increases were seen in shelter (5.2 percent), while energy commodities experienced sharp declines, particularly gasoline and fuel oil, highlighting the fluctuating nature of energy markets.

Sector-Specific Insights:

• Transportation: Airline fares notably increased by 3.9 percent in August after months of decline, likely reflecting seasonal travel adjustments and broader economic activities.

• Medical and Apparel: Both sectors saw modest increases, indicating varied consumer spending behaviors across different areas.

Forward-Looking Implications:

The CPI data not only serves as a gauge of past and current economic conditions but also provides insights into potential future trends. The steadiness in core inflation suggests that while the economy faces inflationary pressures, they may be becoming more entrenched at a moderate level. This has implications for monetary policy, as policymakers must balance stimulating economic growth with preventing runaway inflation.

Consumer Impact:

For consumers, understanding the CPI is crucial as it affects everyday decision-making regarding spending, saving, and investing. The variations in food, energy, and housing costs directly impact budgeting and financial planning.

Conclusion:

As we look forward to the CPI data for September 2024, scheduled for release in October, stakeholders from policymakers to consumers should consider the nuanced changes in the CPI components. Staying informed will be key to navigating the economic landscape, which remains dynamic amid varying inflationary pressures.

Inflation continues to be a critical economic indicator that demands close monitoring. For those planning budgets or investments, keeping an eye on these trends can provide essential insights into timing and strategy adjustments necessary to safeguard financial health in an ever-changing economic environment.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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72 pips potential profit in 91 seconds on 4 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 72 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 4 September 2024.

USDJPY (59 pips)

EURUSD (13 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Understanding the Latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Data: Insights from July 2024

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for July 2024, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the U.S. labor market. Let's dive into the key takeaways from this latest report to understand the current employment landscape better.

Job Openings Remain Steady

As of the last business day of July, the number of job openings in the U.S. remained relatively stable at 7.7 million. Although this figure reflects little change from the previous month, it represents a significant decrease of 1.1 million job openings compared to the same time last year. The job openings rate, which measures the number of job openings as a percentage of total employment plus job openings, held steady at 4.6%.

Breaking it down by sector, notable decreases in job openings were observed in:

• Health Care and Social Assistance: Down by 187,000

• State and Local Government, Excluding Education: Down by 101,000

• Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities: Down by 88,000

Conversely, some sectors saw an increase in job openings:

• Professional and Business Services: Up by 178,000

• Federal Government: Up by 28,000

These figures highlight the shifting demand for labor across different sectors of the economy.

Hiring Activity

The number of hires in July remained largely unchanged at 5.5 million, with a hire rate of 3.5%. This stability suggests that employers are maintaining a cautious approach in their hiring practices, possibly due to economic uncertainties or sector-specific challenges.

However, within certain sectors, there were notable changes:

• Accommodation and Food Services: Hires increased by 156,000, indicating a robust demand for workers in this sector, potentially driven by the continued recovery in travel and dining.

• Federal Government: Hires decreased by 8,000, reflecting a slowdown in recruitment activities.

Separations: Understanding the Fluctuations

Total separations, which encompass quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, increased to 5.4 million in July, up by 336,000 from the previous month. The total separations rate, however, remained relatively stable at 3.4%.

Quits

Quits, often seen as a measure of workers' confidence in their ability to leave jobs for better opportunities, were unchanged at 3.3 million in July. However, this figure is down by 338,000 from July 2023, indicating a potential decrease in employee mobility or willingness to change jobs.

There was an increase in quits within the Information sector, rising by 16,000. This could signal that workers in this industry feel more confident about their employment prospects or are exploring new opportunities.

Layoffs and Discharges

The number of layoffs and discharges, representing involuntary separations initiated by employers, remained steady at 1.8 million, with a rate of 1.1%. Specific sectors did experience increases:

• Accommodation and Food Services: Up by 75,000

• Finance and Insurance: Up by 21,000

These increases suggest that while some sectors are expanding, others are adjusting their workforce needs, potentially due to shifting market conditions or internal restructuring efforts.

Other Separations

"Other separations," which include retirements, deaths, disabilities, and transfers to different locations within the same company, increased to 381,000, up by 71,000 in July. This uptick could reflect demographic shifts or changes in company policies regarding retirements and transfers.

Trends by Establishment Size

The JOLTS report also breaks down data by establishment size, offering a glimpse into how businesses of different sizes are navigating the labor market:

• Small Establishments (1 to 9 employees): These businesses saw a decrease in the quits rate and an increase in the layoffs and discharges rate, indicating potential challenges in retaining staff or a more dynamic restructuring process.

• Large Establishments (5,000 or more employees): These larger entities experienced little to no change across various metrics, suggesting a stable employment environment within big businesses.

Revisions to June 2024 Data

It's worth noting that the BLS revised its June 2024 data, with job openings revised down by 274,000 to 7.9 million and hires revised down by 93,000 to 5.2 million. These revisions underscore the evolving nature of labor market data, as new information becomes available and seasonal factors are recalibrated.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS release, which will cover data for August 2024, is scheduled for October 1, 2024. As we await further data, these figures from July offer a snapshot of a labor market in flux, characterized by sector-specific shifts and a cautious approach to hiring and separations. Employers and job seekers alike will benefit from staying informed about these trends as they navigate the current economic landscape.

Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of labor market conditions in the coming months!

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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47 pips potential profit in 56 seconds on 29 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 29 August 2024.

USDJPY (37 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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U.S. Economy Shows Strong Growth in Q2 2024: A Closer Look at the Latest GDP and Corporate Profits Data

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the "second" estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024, revealing a stronger economic performance than initially reported. The updated figures show a robust annual growth rate of 3.0% for real GDP, marking a notable acceleration from the 1.4% growth observed in the first quarter of the year. This positive momentum underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst various global and domestic challenges.

Key Highlights from the Second Quarter GDP Report

1. Real GDP Growth: The real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, up from the "advance" estimate of 2.8%. This revision is based on more comprehensive data, particularly reflecting stronger-than-expected consumer spending. In comparison, the GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 1.4%, highlighting a significant acceleration.

2. Components of GDP: The growth in GDP was driven primarily by increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. However, these gains were partially offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment. Additionally, imports, which subtract from the GDP calculation, increased during the quarter.

3. Current-Dollar GDP: On a current-dollar basis, GDP increased by 5.5% or $383.2 billion in Q2, reaching a total level of $28.65 trillion. This is an upward revision of $23.2 billion from the previous estimate.

4. Price Indices: The price index for gross domestic purchases rose by 2.4%, slightly up from the prior estimate of 2.3%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, increased by 2.5%, though this is a slight downward revision from the earlier estimate of 2.6%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE price index increased by 2.8%.

Insights on Personal Income and Savings

• Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income saw an increase of $233.6 billion in Q2, which is a downward revision of $4.0 billion from the earlier estimate. This rise was primarily driven by higher compensation and personal current transfer receipts.

• Disposable Personal Income: Disposable personal income, after taxes and adjustments, increased by $183.0 billion or 3.6%, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income, which accounts for inflation, grew by 1.0%.

• Personal Saving Rate: The personal saving rate, defined as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was revised down to 3.3% from the previous estimate of 3.5%.

Corporate Profits Rebound in Q2 2024

A significant highlight of the report is the rebound in corporate profits in Q2 2024. Profits from current production increased by $57.6 billion, following a decline of $47.1 billion in Q1. This marks a substantial recovery and suggests improved profitability among U.S. businesses.

• Sectoral Performance: Profits of domestic financial corporations increased by $46.4 billion, though this is a deceleration from the $65.0 billion increase in Q1. Nonfinancial corporations, on the other hand, saw profits rise by $29.2 billion, reversing a decline of $114.5 billion in the previous quarter. However, profits from the rest of the world decreased by $18.0 billion, contrasting with a $2.3 billion increase in Q1.

Understanding the Revisions and Future Releases

The upward revision in the GDP estimate for Q2 was mainly due to stronger consumer spending, offset by downward adjustments in other areas like nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and government spending. The BEA will continue to refine these estimates as more data becomes available.

Looking ahead, the BEA will release the third estimate of GDP and revised corporate profits for Q2 2024 on September 26, 2024. This will coincide with the annual update of the National Economic Accounts, which includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, and gross domestic income.

Conclusion

The latest GDP figures for Q2 2024 indicate a resilient and growing U.S. economy, bolstered by robust consumer spending and a rebound in corporate profits. While certain sectors, such as residential fixed investment, have shown weakness, the overall economic landscape appears positive. As we await further data and the next round of estimates, these findings provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year.

Stay tuned for more updates as the BEA releases additional data in the coming weeks.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-second

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38 ticks potential profit in 46 seconds on 15 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 38 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 15 August 2024.

Natural gas (38 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: Slight Decline in Working Gas Stocks Amid Seasonal Variations

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending August 9, 2024. The report indicates a slight decrease in the total working gas in storage across the Lower 48 states, with key regional variations highlighting the ongoing dynamics in the natural gas market.

Key Figures from the Report:

• Total Working Gas: As of August 9, 2024, the total working gas in underground storage was 3,264 billion cubic feet (Bcf), reflecting a net decrease of 6 Bcf from the previous week’s level of 3,270 Bcf.

• Year-over-Year Comparison: The current storage level is 209 Bcf higher than the same period last year, marking a 6.8% increase. Moreover, it is 375 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,889 Bcf, a significant 13.0% surplus.

• Regional Insights:

  • East: The East region saw a modest increase of 4 Bcf, bringing its total to 723 Bcf. This is 1.5% higher than last year and 9.9% above the five-year average.

  • Midwest: The Midwest experienced the largest net increase, with 15 Bcf added, raising its total to 869 Bcf. This represents a 7.7% increase from last year and a 13.6% rise compared to the five-year average.

  • Mountain: The Mountain region’s storage grew by 3 Bcf to 260 Bcf, a remarkable 30.0% higher than last year and 43.6% above the five-year average.

  • Pacific: Contrarily, the Pacific region saw a net decrease of 2 Bcf, bringing its storage down to 287 Bcf. Despite this decline, the region’s storage remains 20.6% higher than last year and 9.1% above the five-year average.

  • South Central: The South Central region experienced the most significant decline, with a 27 Bcf drop in storage, bringing the total to 1,125 Bcf. This region includes salt and nonsalt storage facilities, which saw decreases of 14 Bcf and 12 Bcf, respectively. Despite the decrease, the region’s storage is still 2.6% higher than last year and 10.2% above the five-year average.

Analysis and Implications:

The slight overall decrease of 6 Bcf in working gas stocks this week can be attributed to seasonal fluctuations and regional demand variations. The data reveals a complex picture, where some regions, like the Midwest and Mountain, have seen substantial increases, while others, particularly the South Central region, have experienced notable declines.

The South Central region’s significant reduction is noteworthy, as it typically plays a critical role in balancing supply and demand, particularly during the high-demand periods in the winter. The drop in this region may reflect current consumption trends or changes in production patterns.

Conversely, the increases in the Midwest and Mountain regions suggest a buildup of reserves in preparation for the upcoming winter season. The high levels in the Mountain region, in particular, may indicate strategic storage aimed at mitigating any potential supply disruptions or price volatility.

The overall surplus of 375 Bcf above the five-year average provides a buffer that could help stabilize prices and supply during periods of high demand. However, the variations between regions underscore the importance of monitoring these trends closely, as they could impact local markets differently.

Looking Ahead:

As we approach the end of summer and transition into the cooler months, the trends in natural gas storage will be crucial for forecasting winter energy markets. The current surplus is a positive indicator, but continued monitoring of regional storage levels and production rates will be essential to ensure market stability.

Energy traders, policymakers, and consumers should keep an eye on upcoming reports, especially as they may reflect the early impacts of seasonal demand increases and potential weather-related disruptions.

Stay tuned for next week’s report, which will be released on August 22, 2024, to see how these trends evolve as we move closer to the high-demand winter season.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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84 pips potential profit in 53 seconds on 15 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 84 pips on US Retail Sales data on 15 August 2024.

USDJPY (63 pips)

EURUSD (21 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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July 2024 Retail and Food Services Sales Show Solid Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its advance estimates for retail and food services sales in July 2024, showcasing a steady rise in consumer spending. Despite ongoing economic uncertainties, the report reveals encouraging signs for the retail sector, with both month-over-month and year-over-year growth exceeding expectations.

Key Highlights:

• Total Sales: U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024 were estimated at $709.7 billion. This marks a 1.0% increase from June 2024 and a 2.7% rise compared to July 2023.

• Three-Month Comparison: Sales for the May through July 2024 period climbed by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2023, indicating a sustained upward trend in consumer spending.

• Retail Trade: Sales in retail trade grew by 1.1% from June 2024 and by 2.6% year-over-year. This sector continues to be a vital component of the overall economy, reflecting consumer confidence and purchasing power.

• Nonstore Retailers: Nonstore retailers, which include online shopping platforms, saw a significant 6.7% increase from July 2023. This growth underscores the ongoing shift towards e-commerce and the importance of digital channels in modern retail.

• Food Services and Drinking Places: This category experienced a 3.4% rise from July 2023, highlighting the resilience of the hospitality sector as it continues to recover from the impacts of the pandemic.

Revised Data for June 2024

Interestingly, the previously reported data for June 2024 was slightly adjusted. Initially, the change from May to June was reported as virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent). However, this has been revised to reflect a modest decline of 0.2% (±0.2 percent). While this revision is minor, it points to the importance of accurate data collection and analysis in understanding economic trends.

What This Means for the Economy

The July 2024 retail and food services sales figures suggest that despite ongoing challenges, such as inflationary pressures and fluctuating consumer confidence, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. The steady increase in sales, particularly in nonstore retail and food services, indicates that consumers are still willing to spend, especially in areas that offer convenience and experiences.

This growth is a positive indicator for businesses across the retail spectrum, from traditional brick-and-mortar stores to online platforms. The continued recovery in the food services sector is particularly noteworthy, as it reflects consumers' increasing comfort with dining out and engaging in social activities.

As we move forward, it will be essential to monitor how these trends evolve, especially in the face of potential economic headwinds. However, for now, the data from July 2024 provides a reason for cautious optimism in the retail and food services sectors.

Conclusion

The latest advance estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau paint a picture of steady growth in consumer spending across retail and food services in July 2024. With a 1.0% month-over-month increase and a 2.7% rise compared to the previous year, the data suggests that the U.S. economy remains on a solid footing. As businesses continue to navigate an evolving economic landscape, these figures offer a glimmer of hope and a sign that the retail sector, in particular, is adapting and thriving.

Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as we continue to track these critical economic indicators.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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90 pips potential profit in 51 seconds on 2 August 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 90 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 2 August 2024.

USDJPY (73 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Navigating Through the Tides: U.S. Employment Situation in July 2024

In the ever-evolving landscape of the U.S. labor market, July 2024 presented a nuanced picture of growth and challenges, as detailed in the latest release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The month saw the unemployment rate nudge up to 4.3 percent, alongside modest job growth, indicating both resilience and areas of concern in the economy. Here’s an in-depth look at the dynamics shaping the employment situation.

The Rise in Unemployment

July's slight uptick in unemployment to 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent in June, resulted in 352,000 more individuals being classified as unemployed. This increase in unemployment rates, especially notable among adult men and White populations, paints a picture of an economy that is still recalibrating post-pandemic and other macroeconomic pressures. This rate is significantly higher compared to last year's 3.5 percent, suggesting a slow but uncertain recovery path.

Sector-Specific Insights

The payroll data offers a glimpse into where the growth is happening and which sectors are lagging:

• Health Care: This sector added 55,000 jobs, maintaining a robust growth pattern, particularly in home health care services and hospitals. This is indicative of ongoing demand in the health services industry.

• Construction and Transportation: Both sectors continued to show resilience with steady job additions, which align with broader economic activities and infrastructural developments.

• Information Sector: In contrast, the information sector shed 20,000 jobs, highlighting the volatility in tech and media industries amidst shifting business models and technological disruptions.

Part-Time Work and Economic Reasons

An interesting facet of the July report is the rise in individuals working part-time for economic reasons, which jumped by 346,000 to 4.6 million. This increase suggests that while jobs are available, they may not fully meet the needs or qualifications of job seekers, or that businesses are hesitating to commit to full-time hires amid economic uncertainties.

Labor Force Dynamics

The labor force participation rate stood unchanged at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio also held steady. However, the number of people not in the labor force but wanting a job increased notably by 366,000, reaching 5.6 million. These figures underscore a complex scenario where many are on the sidelines of the job market, possibly due to mismatches in job opportunities or other barriers to employment.

Earnings and Work Hours

Average hourly earnings saw a modest increase, suggesting mild wage pressures. The average workweek decreased slightly, which might reflect adjustments in business operations or shifts in employment from full-time to part-time roles.

Forward Look

The modest job growth and the rise in unemployment rate in July serve as a reminder of the fragile balance in the labor market. As businesses navigate through economic headwinds and policy changes, the coming months will be crucial in shaping the trajectory of recovery and growth.

As we look towards the August report, due to be released in early September, stakeholders from policymakers to investors, and everyday citizens will be keen on understanding whether these trends are a temporary blip or a sign of more profound shifts in the U.S. economy.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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40 ticks potential profit in 26 seconds on 25 July 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 40 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 25 July 2024.

Natural gas (40 ticks)

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Understanding the Latest Trends in Natural Gas Storage

In the most recent Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on July 25, 2024, covering data up to the week ending July 19, 2024, we observe a detailed overview of the natural gas inventories across the United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides a comprehensive breakdown that not only informs stakeholders but also hints at broader economic implications.

Key Findings from the Report

• Total Working Gas Increase: The total working gas in the underground storage was reported at 3,231 billion cubic feet (Bcf), marking an increase of 22 Bcf from the previous week. This suggests a slightly higher than expected accumulation, considering the week-on-week data.

• Yearly and Historical Comparisons: When compared to the same period last year, current stocks are higher by 249 Bcf. Moreover, when measured against the five-year average from 2019 to 2023, stocks are up by 456 Bcf. These figures indicate a robust stockpiling activity that outpaces both last year’s figures and the longer-term average.

• Regional Breakdown:

  • East: The East showed an increase to 697 Bcf, up from 686 Bcf the previous week.

  • Midwest: Stocks rose to 827 Bcf from 814 Bcf, showcasing a substantial net change.

  • Mountain: This region’s stocks saw a smaller increase, rising modestly from 248 Bcf to 251 Bcf.

  • Pacific: Remained steady at 289 Bcf, indicating stability in this region’s gas storage.

  • South Central: Interestingly, this region reported a slight decrease, down 6 Bcf from the previous week.

• Coefficient of Variation and Standard Error: The coefficient of variation, an indicator of the variability relative to the mean of the dataset, remains low across the board, suggesting that the storage volumes are not prone to large swings, thus providing some stability in supply expectations.

Implications for Markets and Policy

The above-average stock levels relative to both last year and the five-year average can have several implications:

• Market Impact: Higher storage levels typically moderate natural gas prices due to increased supply security. This could influence everything from residential heating costs to the operational costs for industries reliant on natural gas.

• Policy Considerations: With an ongoing robust supply, policy makers might look at opportunities to adjust export levels or reconsider strategies for sustainable energy utilization.

Conclusion

As we head towards the latter part of 2024, the natural gas storage levels are demonstrating a significant cushion compared to historical levels. This robustness in natural gas storage not only helps in stabilizing prices but also plays a critical role in energy security during peak demand periods like winter. Going forward, stakeholders will be keenly watching the trends to gauge the potential economic and environmental impacts of these stock levels.

For more detailed insights and implications, stakeholders are encouraged to stay tuned for the next release on August 1, 2024, which will further shape the understanding of natural gas trends and strategic responses.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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