According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 40 pips on US Retail Sales data on 16 July 2024.

USDJPY (29 pips)

EURUSD (11 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Analyzing the Latest U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales Data for June 2024

In the latest release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the advance estimates for retail and food services sales in June 2024 presented a mixed bag of results that offer insights into consumer spending habits and economic trends. According to the report, total sales amounted to $704.3 billion, showing no significant change from May 2024 but reflecting a moderate increase of 2.3 percent from June 2023.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

The data, adjusted for seasonal variations and differences in trading days and holidays, provides a clear picture of the market's stability and growth over the past year. Despite the static growth from the previous month, there is a positive uptrend when comparing the data year-over-year. From April to June 2024, total sales saw an increase of 2.5 percent from the same period last year, indicating a steady rise in consumer expenditure.

Interestingly, the April to May 2024 data was revised upward, from a marginal 0.1 percent increase to a more noticeable 0.3 percent. This revision suggests that consumer spending has been slightly more robust than initially estimated.

Sector-Specific Trends

The retail trade sector specifically showed a minor decline of 0.1 percent from May 2024, yet it experienced a 2.0 percent increase compared to last year. This suggests a slow but steady recovery and growth over the long term. Nonstore retailers, which include online and e-commerce platforms, notably outperformed other categories with an impressive 8.9 percent increase from June 2023. This highlights the continuing shift towards online shopping and the strength of digital marketplaces.

On the other hand, food services and drinking places also saw a significant uptick, with sales rising by 4.4 percent from the previous year. This increase may be indicative of a rebound in dining out as consumer confidence in public health safety grows and social restrictions related to the pandemic continue to ease.

What This Means for the Economy

The mixed signals from the June 2024 data reflect the complex interplay of economic recovery, inflation concerns, and shifts in consumer behavior. The stability in month-over-month sales juxtaposed with the annual increases suggests that while the market is not booming, it is resilient amid economic uncertainties.

For investors and business owners, these trends underscore the importance of adjusting to the growing online consumer base and the recovering food service industry. Businesses that can navigate the balance between digital and physical sales channels are likely to see continued success.

Final Thoughts

As we move further into the second half of 2024, all eyes will be on how these trends develop, particularly in the context of economic policies and global market conditions. Will the momentum in nonstore retail and food services continue? How will macroeconomic factors like inflation and employment rates affect consumer spending?

These are critical questions for market analysts, investors, and policymakers as they plan for the coming months. Keeping a close eye on these trends will be key to understanding and anticipating the needs of the U.S. consumer in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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