According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 15 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 29 October 2024.

USDJPY (11 pips)

EURUSD (4 pips)

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September 2024 Job Market Insights: Steady Openings, Slow Hiring, and a Mixed Separation Picture

The U.S. job market showed signs of stability in September 2024, with job openings holding relatively steady at 7.4 million, slightly below August’s revised estimate of 7.9 million. The recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives insight into key labor dynamics, including the balance of job openings, hiring, and separations, while revealing subtle shifts across industries and employer sizes.

Here’s a closer look at what September’s data tells us about the current labor landscape.

Job Openings: Stable but Slower Than Last Year

The number of available jobs in September remained virtually unchanged at 7.4 million, though the year-over-year decline—down by 1.9 million—suggests a gradual cooling in labor demand. The job openings rate held steady at 4.5%. Health care, social assistance, and government roles saw the most significant drops in job postings, with decreases in sectors like state and local government (down by 79,000) and the federal government (down by 28,000). Interestingly, finance and insurance bucked the trend, gaining 85,000 openings in the month.

This dip in job openings across several fields may indicate a shift as employers scale back hiring plans amid economic uncertainties.

Hiring Holds Steady

Hiring rates also saw little movement, with a total of 5.6 million hires in September, consistent with August’s levels. At a hiring rate of 3.5%, employers appear cautious, holding back on aggressive hiring despite the availability of open positions. This measured hiring approach could reflect a shift in focus toward retaining and optimizing current staff, particularly in industries experiencing labor shortages.

Separations: Mixed Signals in Quits and Layoffs

The separation rate remained flat at 5.2 million, though there were intriguing shifts within the categories:

• Quits: The quit rate, a key indicator of worker confidence, held at 1.9%, with 3.1 million workers voluntarily leaving their roles. Notably, quits in professional and business services declined by 94,000, while sectors like state and local government (excluding education) and real estate saw slight increases in voluntary separations. Year-over-year, quits have dropped by 525,000, suggesting workers may be more inclined to stay put, potentially due to a perceived lack of new opportunities or concerns about economic volatility.

• Layoffs and Discharges: Layoffs and discharges remained at 1.8 million, but the year-over-year comparison reveals a jump of 238,000, with notable layoffs in durable goods manufacturing (+46,000). The layoffs and discharges rate inched up to 1.2%, signaling that certain sectors are actively reassessing workforce needs as demand fluctuates.

Other forms of separations, such as retirements, deaths, and relocations, remained mostly static, with 292,000 reported in September.

Trends by Establishment Size

Smaller establishments with fewer than 10 employees saw little movement in job openings, hires, or quits, though their layoffs and discharges rate did rise. On the opposite end of the spectrum, large companies (5,000+ employees) also saw little variation in their openings, hires, and separations rates, possibly indicating an advantage in workforce stability and access to resources for larger employers.

Revisions for August 2024

The BLS revised its August estimates, adjusting job openings downward to 7.9 million, while hires were revised up to 5.4 million. The upward revision in separations, particularly in quits and layoffs, provides further insight into the workforce adjustments underway as employers and workers navigate a changing economic landscape.

What This Means for Workers and Employers

September’s data paints a picture of a job market that’s stabilizing after rapid shifts in recent years. For job seekers, the steady job openings rate and gradual decline in quits could suggest that competition for roles remains robust. Employers, meanwhile, appear to be more conservative in their hiring strategies, focusing on retaining current employees while selectively filling roles in sectors like finance and insurance.

Looking ahead, the labor market’s trajectory may continue on this path of moderation. For workers, it could mean fewer opportunities for job-hopping, while employers may increasingly emphasize retaining and training existing staff.

As we await the next JOLTS release on December 3, 2024, it’s clear that flexibility and adaptability remain crucial in navigating today’s dynamic job market.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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