According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 26 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 22 November 2023.

EURUSD (10 pips)

USDJPY (16 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Navigating Economic Crosswinds: Consumer Sentiment Update for November 2023

Introduction: In our latest consumer sentiment update for November 2023, we observe a nuanced landscape as the index experiences its fourth consecutive month of decline. This month's 2.5 index point drop, or 4% decrease, reveals a delicate balance of both positive and negative factors influencing consumer perceptions.

Key Points:

1. Mixed Economic Conditions:

   • While consumer sentiment declined, there were improvements in current economic conditions and personal finance expectations.

   • Expectations of business conditions, especially in the long run, took a notable hit, plunging by 15% to its lowest since July 2022.

2. Age Group Dynamics:

   • Younger and middle-aged consumers showed a significant decline in economic attitudes.

   • Sentiment among those aged 55 and older improved from October, showcasing a diverse range of perspectives.

3. Inflation Concerns:

   • Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5%, indicating heightened concerns compared to October's 4.2%.

   • Long-run inflation expectations reached 3.2%, the highest since 2011, despite the observed slowdown in inflation. Consumers express worries about a potential reversal in the coming months and years.

4. Director's Insight:

   • Joanne Hsu, Surveys of Consumers Director, notes the delicate interplay of factors contributing to the sentiment decline. She highlights the juxtaposition of improved personal financial expectations against concerns about long-term business conditions.

Conclusion: As we navigate the economic crosswinds of November 2023, the consumer sentiment report provides valuable insights. While some indicators point towards optimism, the cautionary notes, especially regarding inflation and long-term business conditions, underscore the complexity of the economic landscape. Keeping an eye on future releases will be crucial for understanding how these dynamics continue to evolve. Stay tuned for our next update on Friday, December 8, 2023, as we delve into the preliminary December data and continue to decode the pulse of consumer sentiment.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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